AIR THREAT: MASSIVE STRIKE PREPARATIONS REPORTED (1913Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Russian monitoring channels indicate a high probability of a coordinated missile and UAV strike tonight. Priority targets are cited as Kyiv and western Ukrainian regions.
BORDER INCIDENT: DRONE CRASH NEAR WARSAW (1900Z, Tsaplienko/Radio ZET, HIGH): A drone crashed on a military base near Warsaw, reportedly within 70 meters of an ammunition depot. This updates earlier reports of a crash in Przasnysz, suggesting either a significant navigation error or deliberate provocation near critical NATO infrastructure.
FRONTAL ADVANCE: RU BREAKTHROUGH AT MYROPILSKY (1920Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian sources report a tactical advance at the Myropilsky salient on the Sumy front. UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources, but consistent with recent RU pressure in northern sectors.
C2 SECURITY: MANDATORY STARLINK VERIFICATION (1907Z, DeepState, HIGH): Ukraine has implemented a mandatory verification process for Starlink terminals via the "Diia" app and Administrative Service Centers (TsNAP). This is a direct measure to neutralize Russian "gray-market" terminal usage.
LOGISTICS: GERMAN CRACKDOWN ON SMUGGLING (1858Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): German authorities are conducting nationwide raids targeting networks smuggling microelectronics to Russia, potentially disrupting RU precision-guided munition (PGM) production cycles.
TACTICAL AVIATION: KAB STRIKES INBOUND (1917Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) toward northern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk (from the Donetsk axis).
ENERGY RESILIENCE: COGENERATION DEPLOYMENT (1911Z, UA Ops/Shmyhal, HIGH): Additional cogeneration units have been activated in Kyiv Oblast to maintain grid stability amid extreme cold (-27°C) and expected strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): The situation is deteriorating. RU forces claim an advance at the Myropilsky salient (1920Z). Simultaneously, KAB launches in northern Kharkiv (1917Z) indicate a suppression effort to support ground movements or interdict UAF reinforcements.
Central Sector (Kyiv/Cherkasy/Dnipropetrovsk): Multi-layered threat. UAVs are currently transiting Cherkasy toward Kyiv (1855Z). The vector of KABs from Donetsk toward Dnipropetrovsk suggests a widening of the aerial bombardment zone to include trans-Dnipro logistics hubs.
Southern Sector (Kherson): Kinetic activity remains localized. RU MoD reports Msta-B artillery strikes on UAF observation posts on the right bank (1902Z).
International/NATO Frontier: The proximity of the drone crash in Poland (70m from an arms depot) elevates this from a "stray asset" to a potential kinetic threat to NATO logistics. This occurs as UA synchronizes new sanctions with the UK (1901Z) to increase pressure on the RU industrial base.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Aviation & Missile Forces: The transition from UAV "mapping" to KAB strikes and the movement of PGMs (as suggested by RU milbloggers at 1913Z) indicates the "reload phase" is complete. RU is likely waiting for the optimal window of solar-induced GPS degradation to maximize the failure rate of UA air defense interceptors.
Tactical Shift: The Myropilsky salient activity suggests RU is testing the Sumy border to force UAF to divert reserves from the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia axes.
Vulnerabilities: Domestic stability in RU remains brittle; gas poisoning incidents in Dagestan (1855Z) highlight infrastructure failures that contrast with the MoD’s focus on external aggression.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Counter-Electronic Warfare: The mandatory Starlink verification (1907Z) is a critical operational security (OPSEC) upgrade. By tethering terminals to Diia (state identity), UAF can effectively "geofence" and deactivate terminals captured or purchased by RU forces.
Infrastructure Hardening: Deployment of decentralized energy sources (cogeneration) in Kyiv is a proactive response to the -27°C weather and anticipated grid strikes.
Deep Strike Verification: UAF continues to emphasize the psychological and material impact of destroying the TOS-1A inside RU territory (1912Z), reinforcing the "long arm" capability of UA drone units.
Information environment / disinformation
Morale Operations: UA sources are amplifying the tally of "demobilized" RU officers (7,754) to counter RU reports of tactical advances (1856Z).
Threat Narratives: RU-aligned channels (NgP Razvedka) are escalating rhetoric from "threats" to "violence" (1912Z, 1921Z), likely intended to induce panic ahead of the overnight strike.
Western Skepticism: RU channels continue to frame US political internal debates as "cowardice" (1904Z) to erode UA confidence in long-term Western support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massed, multi-vector strike involving Shahed UAVs (as decoys/AD saturators) followed by Kalibr or Kh-101 cruise missiles targeting the Kyiv energy node and western UA logistics hubs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the confusion of a mass strike to conduct a "deniable" strike on Polish logistics or signals infrastructure, citing "technical failure" due to solar activity.
Tactical: High probability of continued RU ground pressure in the Sumy sector to exploit the Myropilsky salient.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm drone type (Poland crash): Does the wreckage contain RU or Iranian components? Is there evidence of EW jamming-induced navigation failure?
[HIGH] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required for the Sumy front (Myropilsky) to confirm if RU has established a sustained presence or if this was a raid.
[MEDIUM] Monitor HF/GPS signal quality in the next 6 hours to determine the window of maximum UA AD vulnerability.
[MEDIUM] Track German microelectronics smuggling investigation to identify specific RU defense contractors currently facing component shortages.
