Situation Update (1200Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: SUSTAINED TARGETING OF COAL SECTOR (1134Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Russian forces conducted a second strike within 24 hours on a DTEK coal enterprise in the Dnipropetrovsk region, confirming a systematic operation to cripple the fuel supply for thermal power generation.
- KINETIC: INTENSIFIED BARRAGE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (1127Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Over 800 strikes reported across the Zaporizhzhia region in the last 24h, including 10 direct attacks on the city/suburbs, resulting in at least one civilian fatality (1136Z).
- STRATEGIC: TANKER FLEET SANCTIONS (1134Z, Zelensky/KMVA, HIGH): President Zelensky signed a decree synchronizing sanctions with the EU, specifically targeting the Russian "shadow" tanker fleet and entities involved in cyberattacks and propaganda.
- AERIAL: UAV THREAT TO TROSTIANETS (1131Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A group of Shahed-type UAVs is currently vectoring toward Trostianets (Sumy region), maintaining the pressure on northern logistical hubs.
- TACTICAL: POSITIONAL FIGHTING NEAR NOVOMARKOVO (1132Z, Slivochnyy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Russian sources report active positional engagements west of Bakhmut along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.
- EQUIPMENT: CLAIMED LOSS OF HIMARS (1122Z, Poddubny, LOW): Russian milbloggers claim the destruction of a HIMARS launcher. UNCONFIRMED; no visual evidence or location data provided.
- ENVIRONMENTAL: CRIMEAN EARTHQUAKE (1133Z, TASS, HIGH): A 4.8 magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of Crimea; no immediate reports of damage to military infrastructure or the Kerch Bridge.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high, defined by Russian "negotiation by fire." The primary focus of Russian long-range strikes has shifted from the power grid itself to the upstream coal mining infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, likely intended to create a multi-month fuel deficit that cannot be easily repaired by importing components. In the South, the volume of fire in Zaporizhzhia (800+ incidents) indicates a significant expenditure of tube and rocket artillery, possibly to mask localized movements or suppress UAF counter-battery assets. Weather remains cold, and the 4.8 magnitude earthquake near Crimea adds a minor but notable variable to coastal infrastructure stability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- Operational Intent: Russia is executing a dual-track strategy: exhausting regional air defenses with UAV swarms (Trostianets/Sumy) while simultaneously attriting the energy sector's fuel base (DTEK mines).
- Tactical Developments:
- Kupyansk Sector: Russian "drone-pilot" units are successfully targeting UAF Ground Robotic Complexes (UGVs) (1132Z, Colonelcassad). This indicates an adaptation to Ukraine’s increasing use of unmanned ground systems for logistics and trench clearance.
- Bakhmut/Donetsk: Fighting near Novomarkovo (1132Z) suggests Russia is attempting to improve its tactical positions near the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal to secure its flanks.
- Logistics & Sustainment: Russia is deepening its "Global South" pivot, with Kabul signaling readiness to collaborate on mineral extraction (1126Z). This follows earlier reports of Afghan labor migrants being recruited, indicating a long-term plan to offset Russian domestic labor shortages.
- Command & Control: An FSB investigation into the former head of the Rostov "Gorizont" plant (1130Z) suggests ongoing purges or "discipline-tightening" within the Russian defense-industrial base (DIB), likely related to production delays or embezzlement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- Tactical Performance: The Brigade "Khartia" (Kharkiv direction) reports high efficiency for January, claiming 200+ enemy KIA and the suppression of 722 drones (1128Z). This highlights the effectiveness of localized UAF EW and organic air defense.
- Future Readiness (BRAVE1): The Ukrainian defense tech cluster BRAVE1 is shifting focus toward AI, autonomous systems, and advanced EW for 2026 (1138Z). The objective is to move beyond simple FPV production toward "game-changing" autonomous lethality.
- Economic Warfare: The new sanctions on the Russian tanker fleet aim to further degrade Russia's ability to fund the war through illicit oil sales, aligning Ukrainian policy directly with EU enforcement mechanisms.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Russian Internal Policy: Medvedev’s proposal for "digital profiling" of migrants (1129Z) reflects growing internal security concerns and a move toward total digital surveillance of the foreign labor force.
- Diplomatic Framing: Russian channels are amplifying Kaja Kallas’s comments about "painful concessions" to frame Kyiv as being pressured by the West, while simultaneously noting Zelensky’s resolve to continue the war (1137Z).
- Cultural/Morale: The annual "Groundhog Day" tradition in Kharkiv with Tymko IV (1126Z) serves as a minor but persistent morale booster, emphasizing continuity of Ukrainian culture even in frontline cities.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue to cycle UAV groups through Sumy and Kharkiv to trigger air defense responses, while prioritizing Dnipropetrovsk coal mines for heavy kinetic strikes over the next 12-24 hours.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal infrastructure combined with a breakthrough attempt near Novomarkovo. If Russian forces can disrupt water/logistical flows across the canal, they could compromise the defense of the broader Bakhmut/Kramatorsk axis.
- Tactical Timeline: Expect the UAV group near Trostianets to impact or be intercepted within the next 1-3 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- AERIAL: Ongoing loitering munition threat in Sumy and Poltava regions.
- KINETIC: High probability of a third strike on DTEK assets in Dnipropetrovsk.
- DIPLOMATIC: Expect Russian state media to amplify the "HIMARS destruction" claim to counter the news of Ukraine’s new tanker sanctions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Verify Russian claims of HIMARS destruction; monitor for drone/satellite imagery of the alleged strike site.
- [MEDIUM] Assess the damage at the DTEK mine; determine if the strike hit extraction machinery or personnel facilities (impact on long-term production).
- [LOW] Monitor seismic activity in Crimea for secondary effects on Russian naval basing in Sevastopol.
//REPORT ENDS//
