Situation Update (0951Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI SECURITY TALKS ANNOUNCED (0951Z, TASS/Peskov, HIGH): The Kremlin confirmed a second round of security group meetings in Abu Dhabi scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Peskov reiterated that Russia remains "open to negotiations."
- TACTICAL: CLAIMED LOSS OF TERNOVATOYE (0934Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): The Vostok Group of Forces released footage claiming the liberation of Ternovatoye in the Zaporizhzhia sector. This follows the confirmed loss of Prydorozhne (0902Z).
- STRATEGIC: EU WEAPONS FUNDING SHIFT (0947Z, Operation Z/FT, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the EU is prepared to allow Kyiv to spend a €90bn credit on weapons manufactured within Ukraine.
- MARITIME: WAGNER DEPLOYMENT TO SHADOW FLEET (0932Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Wagner personnel, now under RU MoD control, have been identified on "shadow fleet" tankers, likely providing security for illicit oil exports.
- HYBRID: DANISH ARMS WITHDRAWAL CLAIM (0941Z, Basurin, LOW): UNCONFIRMED and highly likely disinformation. Claims suggest Denmark is withdrawing weapons from Ukraine to defend Greenland against potential U.S. annexation.
- AERIAL: BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (0942Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force warns of ballistic weapon use from the eastern direction, specifically targeting the Zaporizhzhia region.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a Russian "negotiation by fire" strategy. While the Kremlin signals diplomatic readiness via the Abu Dhabi channel (0951Z), it has simultaneously ended the "energy truce" (0935Z) and intensified ground assaults in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Weather remains a secondary factor to the kinetic grid suppression campaign. A significant strategic deadline approaches this Thursday with the expiration of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia (0947Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- Operational Intent: The enemy is attempting to create a "double squeeze"—kinetic pressure on the Zaporizhzhia/Pokrovsk lines and strategic pressure via energy infrastructure strikes—to force favorable terms at the upcoming Abu Dhabi talks.
- Tactical Developments (Zaporizhzhia): The reported capture of Ternovatoye (0934Z) and Prydorozhne suggests an attempt to roll up the southern flank and create a buffer for logistics hubs like Melitopol. The use of Vostok Group forces indicates a sustained regional offensive.
- Hybrid/Maritime: The integration of Wagner personnel onto "shadow fleet" tankers (0932Z) suggests Russia is hardening its maritime logistics against potential interdiction or sanctions enforcement.
- C2 and Morale: Domestic propaganda remains focused on historical parallels (Volgograd/Stalingrad renaming, 0921Z) and legal crackdowns on elite figures (0930Z) to maintain internal stability during the offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense remains on high alert for ballistic threats (0942Z). Although the air alarm in Zaporizhzhia city was cleared at 0928Z, the regional threat remains "active."
- Resource Management: The potential flexibility to spend €90bn in EU credits on domestic arms production (0947Z) would significantly reduce logistics lead times and bypass international shipping bottlenecks, provided the energy grid supports manufacturing.
- Morale/Sustainability: The 199th Training Center (DShV) continues high-tempo training cycles (0929Z). Public sentiment in Ukraine remains focused on a long-term outlook, with KMIS surveys (0945Z) indicating a shift in expectations regarding the war's duration.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Disinformation Alert: A high-intensity disinformation campaign is targeting NATO cohesion. The narrative that Denmark is withdrawing arms to protect Greenland (0941Z) is likely designed to sow distrust between Ukraine and its Nordic partners.
- Strategic Signaling: Ukrainian Air Force Spokesman Ihnat highlighted that Russian use of "Zircon" and "Oreshnik" missiles (0926Z) is a signal to the West rather than a purely tactical necessity, aimed at demonstrating technological escalation.
- Internal RU Narrative: The Kremlin is using "lame duck" narratives regarding European leaders (Macron, 0925Z) and industrial strikes in Germany (0943Z) to convince its domestic audience that Western support for Ukraine is collapsing.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Over the next 12 hours, Russia will maintain ballistic pressure on the Zaporizhzhia sector to support ground advances near Ternovatoye. Concurrently, expect a second wave of UAV/missile strikes on energy nodes in central Ukraine to exploit the "terminated truce."
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic strike on Kyiv or Dnipro timed with the expiration of the New START Treaty (Thursday) to maximize psychological leverage ahead of the Abu Dhabi security talks.
- Logistics Impact: The presence of Wagner on tankers suggests Russia may attempt to move high-value military cargo via civilian-flagged "shadow" vessels to bypass regional monitoring.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- ZAPORIZHZHIA: High probability of continued Russian offensive actions west of Ternovatoye.
- NATIONAL: Persistent ballistic threat from the east. Residents must remain near shelters.
- DIPLOMATIC: Intensified rhetoric from Moscow as they set conditions for the Feb 4-5 Abu Dhabi meetings.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verify the status of Ternovatoye via independent satellite imagery or ground-level tactical reports to confirm if UAF has established a new defensive line.
- [HIGH] Monitor Danish Ministry of Defense official channels to provide a formal rebuttal to the "Greenland withdrawal" disinformation.
- [MEDIUM] Track the movement of "shadow fleet" tankers identified with Wagner personnel to assess if they are being used for maritime "smuggling" of dual-use components.
//REPORT ENDS//
