Situation Update (0851Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- STRATEGIC AVIATION: TU-95MS REDEPLOYMENT (0830Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Multiple monitors confirm the transfer of Tu-95MS "Bear-H" strategic bombers from Far Eastern "Ukrainka" AB to forward staging bases in Western Russia. This indicates preparation for a massed missile strike within the next 12-24 hours.
- TECH WARFARE: STARLINK "WHITE LIST" IMPLEMENTED (0835Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Defense Minister Fedorov announced a government decree enforcing a "white list" for Starlink terminals. Unregistered devices will be disabled, specifically targeting Russian forces' unauthorized use of gray-market terminals.
- TACTICAL: LOSS OF PRYDOROZHNE (0831Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM): Russian forces from the "Vostok" grouping claim the capture of Prydorozhne in the Zaporizhzhia sector. UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources, but corroboration across multiple RU channels indicates a high probability of a tactical retreat in this area.
- KINETIC: CHERKASY MASS UAV STRIKE (0824Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): A coordinated UAV attack on Cherkasy has resulted in at least four civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure.
- AIR OPERATIONS: MASSIVE KAB EMPLOYMENT (0828Z-0850Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Intensified use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported across three sectors: Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk (targeting Chaplyne and Prosyana).
- DIPLOMATIC: SHOIGU IN MYANMAR (0836Z, ТАСС, HIGH): Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu has arrived in Myanmar. Assessed as an effort to secure alternative ammunition sources or deepen military-technical cooperation to circumvent Western sanctions.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is shifting as Russia concludes its "weather lull" and initiates a high-tempo aero-kinetic campaign. The redeployment of Tu-95MS bombers (0830Z) suggests the Kremlin is moving beyond the current tactical drone/KAB strikes toward a strategic "grid-killer" operation. This coincides with the total grid collapse in Kyiv reported earlier today.
Environmental conditions remain extreme (-20°C). The implementation of the Starlink "white list" (0835Z) represents a major shift in the C2 (Command and Control) domain, aimed at stripping Russian frontline units of their tactical communications advantage.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- Strategic Aviation: The movement of bombers from "Ukrainka" (Amur Oblast) to forward airfields (likely Engels-2 or Olenya) is the strongest indicator of an imminent large-scale cruise missile volley. Dempster-Shafer analysis supports this with a high belief score (0.478) for strategic bomber deployment.
- Tactical Course of Action: In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the reported capture of Prydorozhne (0831Z) indicates a localized breakthrough. This likely aims to widen the Russian "Vostok" grouping's corridor and pressure UAF logistics hubs.
- Aerial Attrition: The simultaneous launch of KABs in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk suggests a saturation tactic intended to overwhelm regional air defense and prevent the redeployment of mobile AD units to the capital.
- Rear Area Losses: A training aircraft crash in Orsk (3 KIA, 0832Z) involving the St. Petersburg University of Civil Aviation indicates ongoing strain on Russian pilot training and maintenance pipelines.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- Communications Resilience: The Starlink whitelist (0835Z) is a critical defensive measure. If successfully executed, Russian units currently relying on Starlink for FPV drone coordination and real-time ISR will face immediate C2 degradation.
- Social Cohesion: New KIIS polling (0831Z) confirms that 65% of the population remains committed to long-term endurance. This social stability is the primary target of the ongoing Russian energy terror.
- Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting KAB and UAV vectors (0828Z, 0850Z), maintaining situational awareness despite the solar flare-induced GPS/HF degradation noted in the 24h brief.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Disinformation Reiteration: Russian state media and pro-war channels continue to push the narrative of French-led assassinations in Africa (0840Z, 0847Z). This is a coordinated effort to frame Western leaders as "terrorists" to justify Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Internal Narratives: Russian media is framing the "Satanism" of the Ukrainian government (0824Z) to maintain domestic religious/ideological support for the war.
- Internal Security: Russian sources claim to have foiled a sabotage attempt at the FSB building in Sevastopol involving a portable speaker with explosives (0849Z). UNCONFIRMED and likely exaggerated to justify increased internal repressions in occupied Crimea.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within 6-12 hours, Russia will conduct a massed missile strike using the newly repositioned Tu-95MS bombers, synchronized with "Shahed" UAV swarms from the north. Primary targets will be the remaining functional substations in Central Ukraine to ensure the Kyiv grid collapse is irreversible.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces exploit the C2 friction during the Starlink transition period to launch a mechanized assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector, building on the capture of Prydorozhne.
- Timeline: 12-18 hours until forward-deployed Tu-95s reach launch points.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- CRITICAL THREAT: High probability of a nationwide air alert and mass missile strike.
- OPERATIONAL: Significant disruption expected for Russian frontline units as the Starlink whitelist takes effect; UAF units should prepare to exploit localized Russian C2 confusion.
- LOGISTICS: Expect continued KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk logistics nodes (Chaplyne/Prosyana).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Identify the specific forward staging airfields for the Tu-95MS bombers to calculate the precise Time of Arrival (TOA) for missile launches.
- [HIGH] Confirm the current status of the UAF line of defense west of Prydorozhne; determine if the loss of the village has compromised neighboring tactical heights.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Russian tactical radio frequencies for signs of Starlink disruption following the whitelist implementation.
//REPORT ENDS//
