Situation Report

Situation Update (0121 UTC Feb 02, 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KINETIC: CHERKASY ENGAGEMENT (0112Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Explosions reported in Cherkasy. This follows the 2358Z (previous report) swarm convergence and confirms active kinetic engagement or impacts within the city limits.
• KINETIC: MULTI-AXIS UAV THREAT TO POLTAVA (0059Z, 0108Z, 0117Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs are converging on Poltava Oblast from three directions: one via Zolotonosha (0059Z), one from Southern Sumy (0108Z), and a third directly toward Poltava City from the north (0117Z).
• REAR AREA: LIPETSK REGIONAL THREAT (0108Z, Lipetsk Gov, MEDIUM): The "air danger" has escalated to a full UAV attack threat across the entire Lipetsk Oblast. This indicates sustained Ukrainian deep-strike operations or a significant failure in Russian IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) systems.
• INFO WAR: POW EXPLOITATION (0106Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Coordinated release of video testimony from a captured serviceman of the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade (TRO). This is a classic demoralization effort targeting TRO personnel.
• STRATEGIC: GLOBAL AD DEPLOYMENT (0109Z, RBC-Ukraine, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Reports of the US deploying additional AD systems (likely Patriot) to unspecified locations. (Analytic Note: DS Beliefs suggest this may be a Middle East deployment, potentially impacting the global availability of AD interceptors for Ukraine).

Operational picture (by sector)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The battlefield is currently defined by a high-intensity UAV offensive targeting the central Ukrainian logistics heartland (Poltava/Cherkasy). Environmental conditions are degraded due to the X-class solar flare, which is expected to cause GPS and HF radio interference, complicating both UAV navigation and AD tracking.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

• Tactical Course of Action: The RF is executing a "pincer" UAV maneuver against Poltava. By vectoring drones from the north (Sumy) and the west (Zolotonosha), they are attempting to saturate local AD and find gaps in the electronic envelope.
• Targeting Focus: Primary targets appear to be the Hrebinka rail junction (per previous sitrep) and the Cherkasy urban/industrial center.
• Logistics/Sustainment: The 29th Guards Missile Division (Strategic Missile Forces) remains at high activity levels (Activity Score: 11.04). This suggests the current UAV wave is a "shaping operation" to map AD responses before a heavier missile strike.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

• Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-tempo tracking. AD units in Cherkasy are currently engaged.
• Challenges: The degradation of Starlink (per daily report) and solar flare interference creates a "fog of war" in digital C2 (Command and Control) systems.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

• Psychological Operations: The use of captured 119th TRO personnel (Colonelcassad, 0106Z) is intended to exploit domestic frustration in Ukraine regarding heating and power outages (Kyiv CHP plant loss).
• Russian Interior: The Lipetsk regional alert (0108Z) suggests the Russian domestic population is being prepared for increased Ukrainian "asymmetric" strikes.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes through 0400Z targeting power distribution and rail infrastructure in the Poltava-Cherkasy-Dnipropetrovsk triangle.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed cruise missile strike timed to the 0400Z-0600Z window, specifically targeting the fragile Kyiv heating grid and the Hrebinka rail hub, utilizing solar-flare-induced AD degradation to maximize penetration.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

The threat level remains CRITICAL. Expect continued kinetic activity in Cherkasy and Poltava. The window for a strategic missile strike is widening as UAVs continue to probe and exhaust AD magazines.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Cherkasy; identify if critical infrastructure or AD assets were hit.
2. [HIGH] Visual confirmation of UAV types used in the 0115Z Cherkasy vector (specifically check for fiber-optic or new electronic hardening).
3. [MEDIUM] Clarification on US AD deployment (0109Z) to determine if these assets are being positioned to support the Ukrainian theater or are being diverted elsewhere.

//REPORT ENDS//