Situation Update (2151 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: MULTI-AXIS UAV THREAT (2122Z-2139Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs (likely Shahed-type) have expanded their operational area. New vectors identified targeting Bromlya (Sumy Oblast), Mykolaiv (Mykolaiv Oblast), and a flanking maneuver west and east of Kharkiv heading south. (AFU Air Force, 2122Z, 2130Z, 2139Z)
- KINETIC: KAB STRIKES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (2128Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched KAB (guided aerial bombs) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (AFU Air Force, 2128Z)
- KINETIC: TACTICAL UAF DRONE SUCCESS (2132Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian drone units successfully engaged and neutralized at least three Russian personnel in an active combat zone under winter conditions. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 2132Z)
- DISINFORMATION: "FREEZING" NARRATIVE (2123Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Russian-aligned channels are circulating video of a deceased individual allegedly "frozen to death" in a doorway, framing it as a result of the Ukrainian government's failure. This is a clear attempt to weaponize the current cold front and energy crisis. (Alex Parker Returns, 2123Z)
- HYBRID: IRANIAN GEOPOLITICAL POSTURING (2133Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Iranian FM Araghchi stated Iran is "ready for war with the US" while simultaneously seeking a nuclear deal. This dualistic rhetoric may signal shifts in the supply chain of Iranian-made munitions to Russia. (РБК-Україна, 2133Z)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield remains highly kinetic with Russia intensifying its use of standoff munitions (UAVs and KABs).
- Battlefield Geometry: The enemy is attempting to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) by launching UAVs from multiple northern and southern vectors simultaneously (Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv).
- Environmental Factors: Winter conditions are being heavily exploited in the cognitive domain. The X-class solar flare remains a critical factor, likely contributing to the "chaotic" flight paths of UAVs as GPS signals remain degraded.
- Force Dispositions: Russian tactical aviation is maintaining high sortie rates in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk sectors, utilizing KABs to bypass traditional AD envelopes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- UAV Operations: The move to flank Kharkiv from both east and west (2130Z) suggests an attempt to identify gaps in local AD coverage or bypass electronic warfare (EW) nodes concentrated in the city center.
- Aviation: The use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia (2128Z) indicates a sustained effort to degrade rear-area logistics and civilian infrastructure to increase pressure on the regional administration.
- Internal Russian Developments: The tax evasion charges against Igor Runets (Bitriver founder) (2142Z) may indicate a Kremlin crackdown on the cryptocurrency sector to consolidate financial control or seize assets for the war effort.
- Course of Action (COA): Russia is maintaining a high-tempo "negotiation by fire" strategy, using kinetic strikes to backstop their disinformation campaigns regarding Ukrainian internal stability.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- Tactical Performance: UAF drone operators continue to demonstrate high lethality in winter conditions, utilizing reconnaissance-strike loops to target Russian infantry (2132Z).
- Air Defense Posture: AFU Air Force is actively tracking multiple UAV groups across three different Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv). The coordination of AD assets is likely under strain due to the combined impact of solar interference and multi-vector saturation.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Targeted Morale Operations: The "frozen citizen" video (2123Z) is a classic Russian hybrid tactic designed to incite domestic unrest in freezing, energy-deprived cities like Kyiv.
- Strategic Distraction: Reports of expansionist statements attributed to Donald Trump regarding Canada and Greenland (2146Z) are being amplified by Russian "military bloggers" (Z-channels). These are likely UNCONFIRMED/LOW confidence and serve as noise to distract from the intensification of strikes on Ukrainian civilians.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian UAVs currently over Sumy and Mykolaiv will attempt to strike energy distribution nodes within the next 2-4 hours to exacerbate the effects of the cold front.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed KAB strike on Zaporizhzhia city, timed with the arrival of UAVs in Mykolaiv, to overwhelm the southern AD umbrella and trigger a humanitarian crisis in a major urban center.
- Timeline: Peak UAV impact expected in Mykolaiv/Southern axis between 2230Z and 0000Z.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
High risk of infrastructure damage in the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors. Expect continued degradation of communications (HF/GPS) due to solar activity. UAF units should prepare for localized Russian infantry pushes in sectors where drone reconnaissance might be hampered by atmospheric conditions.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the exact impact points of KABs in Zaporizhzhia—is the target military logistics or the energy grid?
- [HIGH] Identify if the UAVs over Mykolaiv are using the previously reported "fiber-optic" guidance or if they are standard Shahed/Geran variants.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for secondary effects of the Bitriver legal case on Russian military funding or drone procurement networks utilizing crypto-assets.
//REPORT ENDS//
