Situation Update (2021 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: TERNIVKA CASUALTY UPDATE (2010Z, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH): Casualties from the Russian UAV strike on a DTEK service bus in Ternivka (Pavlohrad district) have been confirmed at 16 individuals. (Dnipropetrovск ОДА, 2010Z)
- TECH INTEL: STARLINK-EQUIPPED BM-35 (2001Z, Sternenko, HIGH): UAF 5th Separate Assault Brigade confirmed the neutralization (on Jan 28) of a Russian BM-35 "Italmas" long-range UAV equipped with an integrated Starlink terminal. This confirms Russian adaptation of Western satellite tech for enhanced long-range drone C2. (STERNENKO, 2001Z)
- AERIAL: BALLISTIC THREAT TERMINATED (2012Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): The immediate threat of ballistic strikes from the south has cleared; however, a "high-speed target" was recently tracked west of Nikopol heading north. (AFU Air Force, 2002Z, 2012Z)
- AERIAL: MULTI-VECTOR UAV PERSISTENCE (2004Z-2014Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAV (Shahed/Italmas) activity remains high. Current vectors: North Kirovohrad toward Talne (Cherkasy); south of Sumy heading toward the Russian border; and east of Okhtyrka toward Kharkiv. (AFU Air Force, 2014Z)
- OPERATIONAL TEMPO: TERRITORIAL GAIN DECREASE (1957Z, DeepState, HIGH): Data indicates Russian forces occupied 245 sq km in January 2026—a ~50% reduction in the rate of advance compared to November/December 2025, suggesting a period of tactical attrition despite heavy assault intensity. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 1957Z)
- WEATHER: "GENERAL FROST" OFFENSIVE (2010Z, NgP RaZVеdka, MEDIUM): Forecasts indicate a severe cold front arriving the evening of Feb 2. This will likely be exploited by RU forces to further stress the damaged energy grid. (НгП раZVедка, 2010Z)
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk / Pavlohrad (Ternivka):
The sector remains a high-priority target for Russian tactical aviation and UAVs. The confirmation of 16 casualties in the Ternivka bus strike underscores a deliberate Russian campaign against energy sector personnel (DTEK), aiming to degrade the human resource pool required for grid maintenance.
Northern / Central Axis (Sumy, Cherkasy, Kharkiv):
UAVs are displaying more complex flight paths, including "return loops" from Sumy back toward the Russian border (2014Z). This suggests either reconnaissance-in-force or attempts to draw out mobile fire groups into exposed positions.
Southern Axis (Odesa / Crimea / Nikopol):
- Odesa: Grid instability persists with 7,500 subscribers currently without power (2009Z). Restoration is ongoing under high-threat conditions.
- Crimea: Pro-Russian sources report the active deployment of "Mobile Fire Groups" to intercept UAF drones, mirroring UAF tactics (2020Z).
- Nikopol: Tracking of high-speed targets (2002Z) suggests localized use of tactical missiles or high-speed loitering munitions.
Eastern Axis (Kostiantynivka / Mar'inka):
- Kostiantynivka: New visual evidence (1953Z) suggests activity near the "Gora" area. [UNCONFIRMED/LOW] Possible Russian tactical probe or preparation for assault.
- Mar'inka: Russian sources are pushing retrospective victory narratives (1959Z) likely to mask the slowing January advance rate noted in recent territorial data.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Innovation: The integration of Starlink onto the BM-35 "Italmas" (2001Z) represents a critical escalation in Russian electronic warfare resilience. By bypassing traditional radio-frequency C2, these drones can potentially operate deeper into UAF territory with less susceptibility to localized jamming.
- Logistics & Attrition: While ground gains have slowed (1957Z), the enemy is maintaining a high "meat grinder" tempo. Reports from the Avdiivka sector suggest significant equipment abandonment during high-speed maneuvers (1958Z).
- Civilian Targeting: Continued strikes on civilian vehicles in Belgorod (2010Z) and the DTEK bus in Ternivka indicate a normalized ROE that includes non-combatant infrastructure and personnel to induce psychological fatigue.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Technological Denial: UAF continues to successfully intercept high-end Russian assets (Italmas/Starlink) and is actively documenting these for Western intelligence partners to pressure for tighter sanctions/geofencing.
- Grid Resilience: Despite the 7.5k outages in Odesa, repair crews are operating "without a minute's stop," demonstrating high civilian-military coordination (2009Z).
- Defense-in-Depth: Air defense remains active over Sumy and Kirovohrad/Cherkasy, successfully tracking evolving UAV vectors.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Honey Trap" Narrative: Russian-aligned channels are aggressively promoting a narrative linking Jeffrey Epstein to "KGB honey traps" and early-stage financial revolutionary ideas for the Kremlin (2017Z, 2019Z). This is a likely diversionary tactic aimed at Western audiences to sow distrust in international financial and political systems.
- Geopolitical Distraction: Rumors of a US strike on Iran (1958Z) are being amplified in the Ukrainian space, likely to suggest a diversion of Western military focus away from the Eastern European theater.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation strikes across the central corridor (Cherkasy/Sumy) to facilitate a secondary wave of ballistic or cruise missile strikes targeting the energy infrastructure ahead of the Feb 2 cold front.
- MDCOA: Use of Starlink-enabled Italmas drones to conduct precision strikes on AD radar sites or command nodes that have been geolocated during tonight's saturation wave.
- Environmental Factor: Preparations for "General Frost" (severe cold) must be prioritized by 1800Z Feb 2.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Determine the extent of Russian Starlink usage on UAVs. Are these individual modifications or serial production?
- [HIGH] Geofence check: Coordinate with SpaceX/Starlink to identify if terminals used by Russian forces in the occupied territories/on drones can be localized and deactivated without affecting UAF operations.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of RU 144th Motorized Rifle Division near Sumy following the circular UAV flight paths.
- [MEDIUM] Verify current status of Odesa's high-voltage interconnectors following the 2009Z outage report.
//REPORT ENDS//
