Situation Update (1621 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI PEAKS POSTPONED (1607Z, Операция Z/NYT, MEDIUM): Reports indicate that peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi have been postponed following a bilateral meeting between the Russian Federation and the United States. This suggests a breakdown or a tactical delay in the "negotiation by fire" timeline.
- TACTICAL: STARLINK-EQUIPPED UAVs INTERCEPTED (1609Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): The UAF 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (ZRP) successfully destroyed two "Molniya" loitering munitions equipped with Starlink terminals. This confirms Russian adaptation of commercial satellite internet for long-range, jam-resistant UAV guidance.
- INFRASTRUCTURE: NATIONWIDE BLACKOUTS SCHEDULED (1621Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Ukrenergo has confirmed that hourly power outages will be implemented across all Ukrainian regions tomorrow (Feb 02), indicating the grid's inability to compensate for recent kinetic damage to generation and transmission assets.
- KINETIC: PAVLOVHRAD CASUALTY REVISION (1552Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Finalized figures for the DTEK miner bus strike stand at 15 KIA and 7 WIA.
- GEOPOLITICAL: IRANIAN ESCALATION THREAT (1606Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has threatened a "regional war" in response to any US attack, potentially intended to divert Western military/intelligence focus away from the Ukrainian theater.
- SECURITY: EXTRADITION & ESPIONAGE (1618Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): IT specialist Alexander Kachkurkin (linked to OpenAI) was deported from Kazakhstan and detained by Russia for high treason, signaling increased RU-Kazakh security cooperation and a crackdown on dual-use technology expertise.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk / Central Sector:
The situation remains critical. The Russian "Vostok" Grouping has issued a new status update (1600Z), likely indicating a handover or coordinated offensive movement with the "Tsentr" group. The postponement of the Abu Dhabi talks suggests that the RU 150th Motorized Rifle Division will continue its push toward Dobropillya without the constraint of a diplomatic "cooling-off" period.
Rear Areas / Grid Security:
The Ukrenergo announcement of nationwide outages (1621Z) reflects a strategic deficit. The previous success in patching the Moldova-Ukraine line (500 MW) has been insufficient to offset the loss of the Kyiv CHP and the psychological/logistical impact of the Pavlohrad strike.
Northern Border / Kursk:
Russian state media (1609Z, TASS) is utilizing foreign proxies (e.g., Christopher Helali) to conduct information operations in the Kursk border region. These operations aim to frame UAF defensive measures as war crimes, likely to provide domestic justification for further "retaliatory" strikes on energy infrastructure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Technological Adaptation: The deployment of "Molniya" UAVs with Starlink terminals (1609Z) is a significant evolution. By integrating Starlink, RU forces can bypass traditional EW (Electronic Warfare) and ground-based signal jamming that target standard RF links. This allows for high-bandwidth video relay and precision terminal guidance at ranges previously unattainable for small loitering munitions.
- Vostok Grouping (Eastern Sector): Increased reporting frequency from "Voin DV" (1600Z) suggests the Vostok Group is preparing for or actively engaging in high-intensity assault operations, likely focusing on the Velyka Novosilka or Southern Donetsk axes to fix UAF units and prevent reinforcement of the Pokrovsk sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense (AD) Success: The 1129th ZRP's success against the "Starlink-Molniya" variant demonstrates UAF's ability to adapt to new RU tech. However, the use of Starlink by RU forces remains a critical vulnerability that requires technical and diplomatic mitigation (coordination with SpaceX).
- Civilian Protection: Following the Pavlohrad strike, localized efforts to secure industrial personnel transport are being prioritized to prevent further "human-centric" interdiction.
Information environment / disinformation
- "The Misunderstanding" Narrative: Pro-RU channels are amplifying Finnish FM Valtonen’s comments regarding the deployment of officers to Greenland as a "misunderstanding" (1610Z). This is being used to characterize NATO coordination as chaotic and unreliable.
- Iranian Deterrence: The dissemination of Iranian threats (1606Z) is likely part of a broader RU-aligned effort to signal that US/Western overextension is imminent, encouraging a reduction in aid to Ukraine to preserve Western stocks for a Middle Eastern contingency.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Following the Abu Dhabi postponement, RU will initiate a period of intensified "punitive" strikes. Expect a high-volume UAV wave tonight targeting energy hubs in Central and Western Ukraine to maximize the impact of tomorrow’s scheduled blackouts.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RU leverages the X-class solar flare's GPS degradation to launch a low-altitude cruise missile strike. Using inertial guidance to bypass degraded GPS-reliant AD systems, targets would likely include the remaining functional high-voltage substations near the Moldovan border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Technical analysis of the Starlink integration on "Molniya" UAVs: Are these using "gray market" terminals or modified hardware? Can the signal be geofenced?
- [HIGH] Identify the current center of gravity for the "Vostok" Grouping to determine if they are shifting focus toward the Pokrovsk flank.
- [MEDIUM] Verification of the "US-Russia meeting" details that led to the Abu Dhabi postponement. Was this a formal rejection of terms or a request for more time to conduct kinetic shaping?
//REPORT ENDS//
