Situation Update (1500 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: AERIAL ATTACK ON SLOVIANSK (1453Z, Biloshytskyi, HIGH): Russian aerial strikes targeted Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast. Video evidence confirms a near-miss on Ukrainian Patrol Police units operating in the city.
- LOGISTICS: UKRAINE-MOLDOVA ENERGY LINE FULLY OPERATIONAL (1457Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed the overnight completion of repairs to the high-voltage line. This restores 500 MW of capacity to the southern grid.
- CIVIL STABILITY: KYIV RESIDENT GATHERINGS (1458Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): Footage confirms Kyiv residents gathering in residential areas using cell phone lights, corroborating the heating/power crisis affecting >1,000 buildings.
- INFO OPS: RU OUTREACH TO WESTERN SKEPTICS (1453Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): State Duma Deputy Speaker Alexander Babakov has publicly invited Seymour Hersh to Russia, likely to bolster "alternative" narratives regarding the conflict's origins and infrastructure sabotage.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Sloviansk/Kramaturk):
The near-miss incident involving Patrol Police in Sloviansk (1453Z) indicates that RU forces are maintaining high-intensity aerial pressure on rear-area logistics and command nodes. The use of aerial munitions (likely KAB or tactical missiles) suggests RU intends to degrade the sustainability of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defense hub.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv):
The successful restoration of the UA-Moldova 500 MW line (1457Z) is a critical operational success. This capacity injection provides the necessary load-balancing to sustain military and civilian operations in the Odesa region despite ongoing RU kinetic pressure on the energy grid.
Kyiv/Central Sector:
Internal stability is the primary concern. Video evidence of residents gathering in the dark (1458Z) indicates the heating crisis is not only a logistical failure but is becoming a visible focal point for civil distress. RU propaganda is already weaponizing this footage to demoralize the population and portray the Ukrainian government as incapable of providing basic services.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Targeting: RU is actively monitoring civil distress in Kyiv via open-source and potentially HUMINT channels to refine targets for the ongoing UAV wave (referenced in 1421Z Sitrep).
- Course of Action (COA): RU is likely to continue harassing rear-area police and emergency services (as seen in Sloviansk) to disrupt civil order and first-responder capabilities.
- Hybrid Operations: The invitation of Seymour Hersh (1453Z) represents a pivot toward long-term information warfare, aiming to influence Western public opinion ahead of the Abu Dhabi and Miami talks.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Infrastructure Resilience: Rapid repair of the Moldova high-voltage line demonstrates high survivability and technical proficiency of Ukrenergo and engineering units.
- Civil Continuity: Patrol Police remain active in Sloviansk despite high kinetic risk, maintaining presence in frontline urban centers.
Information environment / disinformation
- Exploitation of Hardship: RU-aligned channels (NgP Razvedka) are mocks the Kyiv population's lack of heating. This is a coordinated effort to foster resentment against the central government.
- International Narrative Framing: The promotion of the "Window to Russia" podcast featuring Larry Johnson (1453Z) is an attempt to use Western "expert" voices to validate Russian strategic objectives and undermine UAF legitimacy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued tactical strikes on Sloviansk/Kramatorsk to pin UAF reserves. Continued UAV pressure on the Kyiv energy node to prevent the heating restoration.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A massed missile strike targeting the newly restored UA-Moldova link to plunge the southern grid back into total blackout while the X-class solar flare (1451Z previous sitrep) potentially degrades GPS-based air defenses.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Determine if the Sloviansk strike (1453Z) was a targeted attack on security forces or indiscriminate fire.
- [HIGH] Visual confirmation of the technical status of the Kyiv thermal power distribution hubs.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for any SIGINT indicating RU 62nd Missile Division (identified in Daily Report) has transitioned to final launch readiness.
//REPORT ENDS//
