ENERGY: EMERGENCY BLACKOUTS IN KYIV (1156Z, Yasno/TASS, HIGH): Emergency power shutdowns have been implemented in the capital following earlier strikes and grid instability.
KINETIC: UAV PENETRATION TOWARD KYIV/HOSTOMEL (1159Z-1218Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): Multiple Geran-type UAVs are currently transiting northern corridors toward Hostomel and Irpin. Air raid alerts are active for the capital (1203Z).
TECH: STARLINK COUNTER-MEASURES DEPLOYED (1210Z-1217Z, Fedorov/MoD/Sternenko, HIGH): Ukraine, in coordination with SpaceX, has implemented the first technical measures to disable Russian unauthorized use of Starlink terminals on drones.
DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI SUMMIT POSTPONED (1152Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): US media reports indicate the high-level meeting in Abu Dhabi, previously scheduled for today, has been delayed.
PSYOP: MEDVEDEV INTERVIEW ESCALATION (1156Z-1220Z, TASS/Wargonzo/Reuters, HIGH): In a multi-platform interview, Dmitry Medvedev escalated rhetoric against President Zelenskyy ("Annushka has already spilled the oil"—a death threat) and labeled EU leadership a "half-witted gang."
KINETIC: KHARKIV DRONE STRIKE (1211Z-1216Z, Terehov, HIGH): At least one Russian UAV struck a residential area in Kharkiv; damage was mitigated as the device impacted a tree near a residential building.
NEGOTIATIONS: UNCONFIRMED SABOTAGE CLAIMS (1221Z, NgP RaZVedka, LOW): Russian sources claim President Zelenskyy is intentionally sabotaging the Abu Dhabi process by demanding NATO troop deployments as a security guarantee.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv/Northern Sector: High-intensity UAV threat. Drones are utilizing the Hostomel/Irpin approach vectors. The energy situation in the capital has degraded from scheduled to "emergency" status (Yasno).
Kharkiv Sector: Sustained loitering munition pressure. Recent strikes (1211Z) indicate continued targeting of urban residential areas.
Southern Sector (Kherson): Evidence of a recent kinetic strike in the city; immediate damage assessment is ongoing following reports of a "hostile attack" (1212Z).
Sumy Sector: New UAV threats detected entering from the north (1220Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is transitioning from the "Energy Truce" deception to active kinetic disruption. The synchronization of UAV strikes on Kyiv during emergency blackouts suggests an intent to paralyze repair efforts and maximize the psychological impact of the -28°C cold snap.
Technical Adaptation Friction: Russian mil-bloggers (Voin DV) are reporting increased difficulty with Starlink "restrictions," confirming that UAF/SpaceX countermeasures are impacting Russian drone C2.
Tactical Failure: Continued reports of "harakiri" style suicides (1154Z) following failed infantry assaults suggest a persistent crisis in Russian small-unit morale and discipline.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technical Warfare: Successful implementation of Starlink geolocation/authorization filters to "block" Russian drone connectivity is a major tactical success for the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively vectoring against the current UAV wave targeting Kyiv and the northern border regions.
Resource Management: Urgent fundraising for the 225th Separate Assault Regiment (225 OShP) for reconnaissance "eyes" suggests high attrition of tactical UAVs in active sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
"Annushka" Narrative: Medvedev's use of Mikhail Bulgakov's The Master and Margarita imagery ("Annushka already spilled the oil") is a high-level psychological operation designed to signal an impending assassination attempt or a "point of no return" in leadership targeting.
Deception Operations: Russian mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are speculating that UAF claims regarding the total destruction of TPP-6 in Kyiv are a "maskirovka" (deception) to prevent follow-up strikes while repairs are conducted.
Internal Friction: The deletion of a post by influential blogger "Fighterbomber" criticizing the "energy truce" indicates Kremlin-level sensitivity regarding the narrative of a ceasefire versus ongoing operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv throughout the evening. The emergency power status in Kyiv will likely persist as temperatures drop, creating a critical risk of frozen water/heating pipes in high-rise districts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A heavy missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting the 750kV substations to trigger a total grid collapse, timed with the Medvedev-declared "end of truce" and the peak of the cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Technical verification of the Starlink "block": Are Russian units finding workarounds (e.g., roaming-enabled terminals from third countries)?
[HIGH] Status of the 62nd Missile Division: Monitor for telemetry or C2 traffic suggesting a move from "standby" to "launch" sequence.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of Abu Dhabi postponement: Determine if this was a unilateral Russian withdrawal or a mutual delay due to security conditions.
