DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI SUMMIT CONFIRMED (1110Z, Zelenskiy/ASTRA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy officially confirmed the schedule for trilateral talks (Ukraine, USA, Russia) in Abu Dhabi on February 4–5.
TACTICAL: UAF ADVANCES IN KHARKIV & DONETSK (1120Z, ISW/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Ukrainian forces have reportedly achieved tactical gains in Northern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. Support for these movements is noted in recent intelligence beliefs.
KINETIC: ESCALATION IN KHARKIV & ZAPORIZHZHIA (1052Z-1112Z, Kharkiv OVA/Terekhov/RBK-UA, HIGH): Kharkiv’s Nemyshlyanskyi district was struck by a "Molniya" (Lightning) UAV, impacting near a residential building. Concurrent explosions and UAV activity are reported in Zaporizhzhia.
TECH DEPLOYMENT: UAF NRK CASEVAC (1055Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The "Phoenix" border unit successfully utilized a Ground Robotic Complex (NRK) to evacuate a wounded soldier under FPV drone fire near Kostiantynivka.
ENEMY TACTICS: INTEGRATED ARMOR OFFENSIVE (1110Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly deployed armored vehicles during offensive operations in the 225th OSHP sector for the first time in 2026, indicating a shift from infantry-led "meat assaults" to combined-arms pressure.
INFRASTRUCTURE: CONTRADICTORY TPP-6 STATUS (1055Z-1120Z, RU MilBloggers/Parker, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim Kyiv’s TPP-6 (Combined Heat and Power Plant) is "irreparable" following January strikes. However, independent OSINT reports indicate the facility continues to provide heat to the Troyeshchyna district despite visible damage.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Chernihiv): Active combat zone. UAF is reportedly pushing Russian forces back in Northern Kharkiv (1120Z). Conversely, RU UAVs are penetrating as far west as Lyubech, Chernihiv Oblast (1106Z).
Donetsk Sector (Kostiantynivka/Druzhkivka): This has emerged as a high-intensity tactical axis. The successful UAF advance here is augmented by the deployment of unmanned ground systems (NRK) for sustainment and CASEVAC (1055Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Sector: Continuous UAV transit corridor. Russian drones are moving from northern Zaporizhzhia toward the Dnipro-Donetsk border (1053Z, 1057Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The reintroduction of armored vehicles in the 225th OSHP sector (1110Z) suggests Russia may be attempting to capitalize on frozen ground or testing UAF anti-tank depth before the Abu Dhabi talks.
"Negotiation by Fire" Rhetoric: Dmitry Medvedev’s statements (1106Z-1121Z) emphasizing that "SMO goals are unchanged" and claiming military victory is "in sight" serve as a hardline baseline for the Russian diplomatic position.
Infrastructure Targeting: Continued emphasis on the "destruction" of TPP-6 (1058Z) indicates a focus on psychological operations targeting Kyiv’s civilian resilience.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Capabilities: Increased reliance on Ground Robotic Complexes (NRK) for high-risk CASEVAC (1055Z) demonstrates UAF’s technological mitigation of the Russian FPV drone threat.
Offensive Maneuver: The reported advance in Northern Kharkiv and Kostiantynivka suggests UAF is not merely in a defensive crouch but is seeking to improve battlefield geometry ahead of the Feb 4-5 diplomatic window.
Information environment / disinformation
TPP-6 Narrative: RU channels (NgP Razvedka, Dnevnik Desantnika) are coordinated in claiming the total loss of Kyiv's TPP-6. UAF-linked sources and local OSINT counter this by noting continued utility service, suggesting the RU claim is likely exaggerated for "negotiation by fire" leverage.
Global Context: RU sources are amplifying Iranian threats against the US/Israel (1121Z) and internal EU friction (1103Z) to portray Ukraine's Western support as distracted or fragmenting.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV harassment of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv. Russian forces will likely maintain the high tempo of armored/infantry assaults in the Kostiantynivka sector to stall UAF tactical gains.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated precision strike on the Kyiv energy hub (TPP-6 and surrounding substations) to force a localized blackout, synchronizing with Medvedev’s hardline rhetoric to pressure the UA delegation before they depart for Abu Dhabi.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Visual confirmation/Geo-location of reported UAF advances in Northern Kharkiv and Kostiantynivka to determine the depth of the salient.
[HIGH] Technical assessment of the "Molniya" UAV variant used in Kharkiv (1112Z); identify if this represents a new EW-resistant guidance system or jet-powered upgrade.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian armor concentration points near the 225th OSHP area of responsibility to determine if the recent use of technique is a local anomaly or a sector-wide change in COA.
