Situation Update (1021 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC STRIKE: ZAPORIZHZHIA MATERNITY HOSPITAL (0959Z-1013Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA/RBC-UA, HIGH): Russian forces conducted a targeted strike on a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia. Casualty counts have risen from 2 to 6 injured. Visual evidence confirms significant structural damage to civilian medical infrastructure.
- CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LOSS (1017Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Sources confirm that one of Kyiv’s Combined Heat and Power (CHP/TEC) plants is "beyond restoration" following a series of strikes in January. This significantly degrades the capital's long-term energy resilience during the current sub-zero temperatures.
- UNCONFIRMED TERRITORIAL CLAIMS (1010Z, Kotsnews, LOW): Russian sources continue to assert the "liberation" of Zelene (Kharkiv) and Sukhetske (Donetsk). These claims remain UNCONFIRMED by UAF official reporting and lack visual verification of control.
- OFFENSIVE MANEUVER: DOBROPILLYA AXIS (1008Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Elements of the RU 150th Motorized Rifle Division are reportedly conducting offensive operations toward Dobropillya, supported by tactical aviation/drones. This suggests an expansion of the Pokrovsk salient to the northwest.
- AERIAL THREAT: SUMY/KONOTOP (1008Z-1017Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Shahed/Geran UAVs are actively transiting Sumy Oblast, specifically targeting the Konotop area.
- PROPAGANDA ALLEGATION: SARTANA INCIDENT (0954Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-Russian channels claim a UAF drone strike killed a woman and child in Sartana (near Mariupol). This is currently assessed as a UNCONFIRMED casualty claim likely used for counter-narrative purposes following the Zaporizhzhia hospital strike.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by extreme cold-weather operations and a Russian shift toward high-impact civilian infrastructure and "terror" strikes (Zaporizhzhia). The terrain remains frozen, facilitating tracked vehicle mobility, but a forecasted mid-week thaw threatens to transition operations into a "rasputitsa" (mud) phase. In Kyiv, the loss of a major CHP plant has shifted the situation from a "grid emergency" to a "structural deficit," necessitating urgent civil defense measures.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
- Tactical Shifts: RU forces are increasing the use of "fiber-optic" FPV drones (referenced in previous daily reports) to bypass UAF EW. The 150th Division’s activity near Dobropillya indicates an intent to outflank the Pokrovsk defensive complex rather than continuing a direct frontal assault.
- Aviation/Missile Intentions: The strike on a medical facility in Zaporizhzhia may indicate a widening of the target set to include soft civilian targets to increase domestic pressure on the Ukrainian government.
- Sustainment: While armored units are appearing "naked" (lacking ERA), the intensity of drone and artillery fire remains high, suggesting stabilized ammunition flows in the Donetsk sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
- Defensive Operations: The "Pomsta" Border Guard Brigade and the 3rd MSD (PVO) continue to demonstrate high effectiveness in daylight drone interdiction and armor destruction (0958Z, 1008Z).
- Civil Defense: Kyiv municipal authorities have issued an emergency readiness alert (1009Z), advising residents to stockpile water, food, and power banks. The status of the capital's heating grid is critical.
- Morale: Despite mobilization friction in Vinnytsia (reported 0946Z), frontline units remain engaged; however, the persistent Starlink "slowdown" narrative is a growing concern for tactical C2.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Epstein/KGB Narrative (1007Z, Alex Parker/Tsaplienko): A surge in reports linking Jeffrey Epstein to the KGB/FSB is saturating both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian channels.
- Analytic Judgment: This is likely a "distraction op" or a broad-spectrum IO designed to dominate the global news cycle and sow discord among Western supporters during critical energy aid negotiations.
- Starlink Degradation: Pro-RU sources (Archangel Spetsnaza, 1002Z) are framing Starlink technical issues as a "policy shift" by SpaceX.
- Assessment: This remains an unverified Russian PSYOP aimed at undermining UAF confidence in their primary satellite link.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of the Sumy-Konotop-Kyiv corridor to pin down PVO assets while RU forces attempt a breakthrough toward Dobropillya.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, multi-vector missile strike on Kyiv's remaining functional CHPs tonight, synchronized with the predicted lowest temperatures, to trigger a total urban evacuation.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the operational status of the remaining power blocks in Kyiv's energy cluster following the confirmed loss of one CHP.
- [HIGH] Visual reconnaissance (GEOINT) of the Dobropillya outskirts to confirm the presence of RU 150th Division forward elements.
- [MEDIUM] SIGINT/Technical analysis of Starlink performance in the Pokrovsk sector to determine if "slowdowns" are EW-induced or administrative.
//REPORT ENDS//
