TERRITORIAL LOSSES CLAIMED (0913Z-0921Z, Two Majors/TASS, MEDIUM): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the seizure of Zelene (Kharkiv region) by the 11th Army Corps and Sukhetske (Donetsk region). UAF sources have not yet confirmed these losses.
STARLINK INTERDICTION CONFIRMED (0852Z, Sternenko/RBC-UA, HIGH): Vice Prime Minister Fedorov and Elon Musk confirmed that technical measures to block unauthorized Russian use of Starlink terminals are effective.
DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION (0903Z, WarGonzo/Operation Z, HIGH): Iran has officially designated all European Union armies as terrorist organizations, significantly heightening the risk of hybrid or asymmetric threats against EU/NATO interests.
STRATEGIC ATTRITION DATA (0901Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Finalized January statistics report Russia launched over 6,000 strike drones, 5,500 KABs, and 158 missiles, primarily targeting energy and transport infrastructure.
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE SURGE (0914Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active Russian reconnaissance UAVs detected over Kherson region, assessed as spotters for imminent artillery or missile strikes.
TACTICAL SUCCESS IN SOUTH (0920Z, Butusov, HIGH): UAF "Pomsta" Brigade heavy drones successfully destroyed Russian hardware in daylight operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern / Kharkiv Sector
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces (9th Motorized Rifle Reg, 11th AC) claim to have broken the resistance of the 13th Brigade NGU to occupy Zelene. If confirmed, this represents a tactical expansion of the Russian "buffer zone" north of Kharkiv city.
Information Warfare: Ukrainian OSINT (DeepState, 0911Z) debunked Russian claims regarding the capture of Novoplatonivka, identifying the footage as actually being from Kolomyichykha, suggesting Russian "front-loading" of victory narratives.
Donetsk Sector
Tactical Dynamics: Russian forces claim the capture of Sukhetske (0921Z). This likely supports the ongoing offensive pressure toward the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis identified in the 24h context.
UAF Counter-Interdiction: Despite Russian claims, UAF remains active in the sector. Captured personnel from the 80th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division) report significant internal abuses and low morale among Russian "Storm" units (0912Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)
Drone Operations: Russian VDV UAV operators are active north of Malokatynivka (0906Z). UAF "Pomsta" brigade responded with heavy drone strikes on Russian technical assets (0920Z).
Threat Vector: Persistent UAV presence in southern Dnipropetrovsk heading west (0911Z) and reconnaissance assets in Kherson (0914Z) indicate a coordinated preparation for localized tactical strikes or interdiction of UAF logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): Russia is transitioning from "Negotiation by Fire" (diplomatic leverage) to direct tactical exploitation of the grid's fragility. The use of 5,500+ KABs in 30 days demonstrates a shift toward total infrastructure suppression.
Technological Adaptation: While Starlink access has been restricted, Russian forces are increasingly targeting UAF Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) with their own drone units (6th Combined Arms Army near Kupyansk, 0910Z), indicating an evolving robotic-vs-robotic battlefield.
Logistics: The continued activity at AB Millerovo and the 62nd Missile Division (Context: 11.82 activity score) remains the primary indicator for a massed missile strike despite the 0903Z "all clear" for ballistic threats.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Institutional Strengthening: The 190th Training Center of the Drone Systems Forces has been officially named after General Vasily Kuk (0852Z), signaling the long-term institutionalization of unmanned warfare.
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-tempo monitoring of Shahed and reconnaissance vectors. The clearance of a ballistic threat at 0903Z indicates successful early warning, though the threat remains latent.
Information environment / disinformation
Starlink Narrative: Russian mil-bloggers (Kotsnews, 0903Z) are attempting to frame the Starlink restrictions as a general "slowdown" of the service in Ukraine to incite domestic friction.
Hybrid Signaling: The Iranian designation of EU armies as "terrorists" is likely being amplified by Russian channels (WarGonzo) to project an image of Western isolation and increase psychological pressure on European aid providers.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued tactical "probing" in Kharkiv and Donetsk. High probability of artillery and KAB strikes on Kherson/Zaporizhzhia logistics nodes following the current reconnaissance drone activity.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile/UAV strike launched from the 62nd Missile Division and AB Millerovo, timed to exploit the current grid vulnerability and the collapse of the Abu Dhabi talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Physical or high-resolution IMINT confirmation of control status in Zelene (Kharkiv) and Sukhetske (Donetsk).
[HIGH] Monitor for shifts in Iranian military posture in the Middle East that could signal a coordinated Russian-Iranian escalation against EU/NATO assets.
[MEDIUM] Assess the operational impact on Russian "Storm" units following the loss of Starlink access—specifically, look for increases in radio traffic or fiber-optic deployment.
