DEEP UAV PENETRATION (0809Z–0820Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV groups have progressed from northern Kyiv (Piskivka) toward the south and west. Latest tracking places them east of Radomyshl, moving directly toward Zhytomyr city.
BELGOROD STRIKE (0819Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Ukrainian long-range assets conducted a missile or drone strike against targets in Belgorod; Russian air defense (PVO) reportedly engaged multiple targets on the approach.
GLIDE BOMB STRIKE NEAR SLOVYANSK (0821Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian tactical aviation deployed a FAB (likely UMPK-equipped) in the vicinity of Slovyansk, indicating an expansion of the KAB campaign reported earlier in the Donetsk sector.
IRANIAN TERRORIST DESIGNATION OF EU ARMIES (0802Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, HIGH): The Iranian Parliament has officially designated the armed forces of EU member states as terrorist organizations. This signals a deepening of the RU-Iran-Axis hybrid coordination.
REPORTS OF STARLINK LIMITATIONS (0814Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim Ukraine is restricting Starlink usage to prevent Russian drones from exploiting the satellite network for long-range navigation. Confidence is LOW; likely a disinformation narrative or localized EW interference.
INTEGRATED UGV/OPERATIONAL SUCCESS (0802Z, DNR Mil, MEDIUM): The 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (RU) claims to have destroyed Ukrainian personnel, a vehicle, and a Ground Robotic System (NRTK/UGV) near Torske and Vesele.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Slovyansk / Torske)
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Torske-Vesele-Varvarivka axis. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian UGV (0802Z) suggests high-intensity robotic/unmanned attrition in this sector.
Aerial Activity: The FAB strike near Slovyansk (0821Z) indicates Russian efforts to interdict Ukrainian logistical depth supporting the Kostiantynivka-Siversk line.
Northern Sector (Zhytomyr / Kyiv)
UAV Incursion: The flight path of Russian UAVs is evolving. After entering via the Chernobyl zone, they are now bypassing Kyiv to the west, currently vectoring toward Zhytomyr (0820Z). This suggests a deliberate attempt to strike rear-echelon logistical hubs or western energy nodes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)
Logistics & Environment: Severe icing persists. Zaporizhzhia OVA (0821Z) has deployed 31 units of specialized equipment for road treatment. This remains a critical bottleneck for mechanized movement and resupply.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities: Russia is maintaining a high operational tempo despite extreme weather. The use of 6,000+ drones and 5,500 KABs in January (0811Z) confirms a strategy of massed, low-cost precision attrition.
Tactical Adaptation: Unconfirmed reports of Russian drones using Starlink (0814Z) suggest a potential adaptation to bypass Ukrainian jamming, though this may be a pretext for Russian EW claims.
External Support: The Iranian designation of EU armies (0802Z) provides political cover for increased Iranian military assistance and potentially more aggressive posturing by Iranian "advisors" in theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: The engagement in Belgorod (0819Z) demonstrates UAF's continued intent to disrupt Russian staging areas and PVO density in the border regions.
Infrastructure Defense: Massive repair efforts are underway across multiple regions (0811Z) to sustain the grid under the weight of the January strike campaign.
Information environment / disinformation
Cognitive Operations: Both sides are aggressively pushing Epstein-related narratives. UAF sources link the network to the KGB/Putin (0802Z), while RU-aligned channels (Alex Parker, 0806Z) claim an Epstein-Rothschild letter proves the 2014 "Maidan coup" was a western financial conspiracy.
Internal Sabotage Narrative: RU sources are promoting a "cleansing" of Ukrainian weapons-tech elites (0810Z) to sow distrust between the UAF leadership and the domestic defense industry.
US Internal Focus: RU channels are amplifying US domestic political friction (Trump/Obama "coup" claims, 0808Z) to signal a perceived decline in US focus on the Ukrainian theater.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAV strikes on Zhytomyr within the next 1-3 hours. Continued KAB/FAB saturation of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk cluster.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on Western Ukrainian energy hubs, leveraging the current UAV penetrations and potential SATCOM/GPS disruptions caused by the solar flares mentioned in previous reports.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the "Starlink limitation" claim. Determine if this is a UAF technical measure or a Russian EW success being framed as a policy shift.
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets engaged in the Belgorod strike to assess the impact on Russian logistics for the Northern Group of Forces.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the PL-17 Chinese long-range missile data (0808Z); determine if there is any evidence of tech transfer to RU forces.
