LOGISTICS STRIKE IN KONOTOP (0705Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Russian "Geran" UAVs struck the Konotop railway station (Sumy region) overnight. Visual evidence confirms a hit on transport infrastructure.
UNCONFIRMED CAPTURE OF ZELENE (0716Z, Операция Z, LOW): Russian sources claim the seizure of Zelene in the Kharkiv sector. This remains uncorroborated by independent or Ukrainian sources.
TARGETED AVIATION STRIKES (0654Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has commenced launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk sector.
SUSTAINED UAV PRESSURE (0706Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New waves of UAVs are detected moving south from Chernihiv toward Kyiv (Vyshgorod district) and toward Sumy from the north.
RESISTANCE IN RUSSIAN REAR (0715Z, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): Russian air defenses were active over four Russian regions overnight, indicating a coordinated Ukrainian reciprocal drone operation.
ENERGY-INDUCED INFLATION (0656Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Expert forecasts predict a sharp spike in food prices (meat, dairy, vegetables) for February, directly attributed to the ongoing energy crisis and logistical bottlenecks.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk / Krasnoarmeysk)
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces continue high-intensity fire missions. The Russian MoD (0720Z) confirmed "Grad" MLRS strikes against AFU strongholds in the Pokrovsk direction.
Tactical Activity: The introduction of KABs (0654Z) indicates a transition from "probing" to "shaping" for a renewed breakthrough attempt. The use of the "Grachi" UAV detachment (0701Z) highlights the localized concentration of drone assets to support these assaults.
Northern Sector (Kharkiv / Sumy / Chernihiv)
Logistics Interdiction: The strike on the Konotop railway station (0705Z) is a significant development, suggesting a Russian priority shift toward degrading Ukrainian rail-based supply lines for the eastern front.
Territorial Claims: A Russian claim regarding the capture of Zelene (Kharkiv) suggests tactical probing along the international border, likely intended to fix Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas. [UNCONFIRMED]
Kinetic Activity: Shelling of Chernihiv's outskirts (0706Z) reported by the city council indicates sustained cross-border harassment.
Kyiv / Strategic Rear
Sustainment: While 1,500 buildings had heat restored (previous report), approximately 1,000 houses remain without heat in the capital (0658Z). The grid remains in a critical state as temperatures drop.
Threat Vector: UAVs entering the Vyshgorod district (0701Z) suggest a persistent threat to the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant or surrounding distribution nodes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities: Russia is effectively integrating tactical aviation (KABs) with massed UAV swarms and MLRS to overwhelm defensive positions. The focus on rail infrastructure (Konotop) suggests a coordinated effort to disrupt the movement of heavy equipment and ammunition.
Intentions: The "Negotiation by Fire" strategy continues. As Abu Dhabi talks resume (0721Z), Russia is escalating kinetic pressure to maximize leverage.
Internal Posture: Reports of Russian AD activity over four regions (0715Z) suggest that despite the offensive, Russia’s internal lines of communication and energy infrastructure remain vulnerable to Ukrainian deep strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF continues to manage a record number of combat engagements (338 in 24h). Tactical aviation and AD units are currently prioritizing the suppression of incoming UAVs in the northern corridor.
Civil Resilience: National daily rituals, such as the 9:00 AM minute of silence (0658Z-0700Z), are being heavily utilized by official channels to maintain social cohesion and morale amidst infrastructure failures and economic strain.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Deception: Igor Strelkov (0711Z) is propagating a narrative that the "Anchorage/Abu Dhabi" talks are a trap designed to exhaust Russia, framing the Trump administration as calculating and manipulative. This serves to harden Russian internal resolve against any compromise.
Historical Revisionism: Pro-Russian channels (Basurin, 0700Z) are pushing narratives of historical Russian cultural superiority to counter Western-leaning identity shifts in occupied territories.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB and MLRS saturation in the Pokrovsk sector. Persistent UAV arrivals in the Kyiv/Chernihiv corridor to force the depletion of AD interceptors.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized missile and drone strike on the Kyiv energy hub, timed with the peak evening load, potentially triggering a regional grid collapse while diplomatic talks are underway in Abu Dhabi.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the status of Zelene (Kharkiv); assess if this is a genuine breakthrough or a diversionary raid.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of the Konotop railway station; determine the impact on throughput for the Sumy/Donetsk logistics line.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific Russian regions where AD was active (0715Z) to map the success and targets of UAF reciprocal drone operations.
