TERMINATION OF ENERGY TRUCE (0557Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH): Russian sources officially declare the end of the "energy truce." This confirms the "Negotiation by Fire" assessment from previous reports.
KHARKIV SECTOR PREPARATION (0603Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian engineering-sapper units (Platoon "Kalash") are actively clearing and securing logistics routes in the Kharkiv direction, indicating preparation for increased troop or supply throughput.
NORTHERN RECONNAISSANCE SURGE (0619Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Increased activity of Russian reconnaissance UAVs detected in Northern Kharkiv Oblast. (Belief: 0.163)
STRATEGIC RU-PRC ALIGNMENT (0552Z, ТАСС, HIGH): Russian Security Council confirms Shoigu’s arrival in China for security negotiations, likely seeking further dual-use support or diplomatic shielding.
DIPLOMATIC RED LINES (0616Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): RU Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko explicitly stated Russia will not accept EU or NATO troop deployments in Ukraine. (Belief: 0.402)
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv Sector (Northern Front)
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are focusing on "cleaning" logistics routes (0603Z) and conducting aerial reconnaissance (0619Z). This suggests a shift from static defense to offensive preparation or the securing of a buffer zone.
Tactical Activity: Engineering-sapper platoons are clearing mines and obstacles, a prerequisite for the movement of heavy armor or significant reinforcements.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk / Toretsk)
Baseline Context: Per previous reports, RU forces have claimed Toretske and Petrivka.
Threat Persistence: The threat of fiber-optic guided FPV drones on the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway remains critical, as these systems bypass current UAF EW suites. No new ground movement reported in the last 60 minutes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson)
Aviation Readiness: Fighterbomber assets (0617Z) indicate high readiness levels for Russian tactical aviation, likely poised for strikes following the end of the energy truce.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): The formal end of the energy truce (0557Z) suggests an imminent, large-scale missile and UAV strike against the Ukrainian power grid within the next 6-12 hours. This aligns with the previously observed activity of the 62nd Missile Division (Activity Score 11.82).
Logistical Engineering: Sapper activity in Kharkiv (0603Z) indicates that the "buffer zone" strategy is moving into a consolidation or expansion phase. By securing routes, the RU 6th Combined Arms Army or 11th Army Corps may be preparing for a tactical push.
Reconnaissance: The surge in UAV activity in the North (0619Z) is likely for target acquisition (BDA) ahead of or during the expected missile salvos.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking recon assets in the North (0619Z). Readiness for nationwide intercept operations is at maximum following the truce termination notice.
Logistics Management: UAF continues to leverage the Moldova border crossings (baseline) to offset internal transport disruptions caused by weather and previous strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Posturing: Russian rhetoric regarding EU/NATO troop deployment (0616Z) is intended to deter Western intervention and create friction within the alliance.
Narrative Manipulation: The amplification of Trump's comments on Iran (0608Z) by pro-Russian channels serves to distract the international audience from the escalation on the ground in Ukraine, framing Russia as a secondary actor in a global shift.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian tactical aviation and the 62nd Missile Division will launch coordinated strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and transmission nodes to induce a grid collapse during the current cold snap.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized ground assault in the Kharkiv direction, supported by the recently cleared logistics routes and "Kub-10" loitering munitions, timed to coincide with a nationwide blackout and local EW suppression.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate identification of launch platforms (Tu-95MS, Kalibr-equipped vessels) following the truce termination.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of Russian troop concentrations in the areas cleared by sappers in the Kharkiv direction.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of Shoigu’s specific agenda in Beijing regarding the procurement of additional UAV components or microelectronics.
