KINETIC IMPACT IN KHARKIV (2353Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Explosions confirmed in Kharkiv city following the previously reported UAV ingress.
DEFENSIVE SUCCESS IN POKROVSK (2356Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): UAF forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in the Pokrovsk direction, reportedly neutralizing four enemy platoons.
NEW AERIAL VECTORS (0018Z-0021Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple OWA-UAVs (Geran-series) detected entering Dnipro (from the SE) and Sumy region (heading toward Khotin and Shostka).
RUSSIAN STARLINK ADAPTATION (2352Z, Бутусов Плюс, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian forces are developing new tactics to circumvent Starlink velocity lockouts and service interruptions for strike UAVs.
AIR ALERT ZAPORIZHZHIA (0002Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Immediate alert issued for the region, coinciding with reported UAV activity in the southern corridor.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northeastern Sector
Battlefield Geometry: The OWA-UAV vector identified at 2347Z has resulted in kinetic impacts within Kharkiv (2353Z). This confirms the enemy's intent to bypass outer SHORAD screens to strike urban/logistical targets.
Sumy Axis: New UAV threats are tracking toward Shostka (0021Z). Shostka is a critical node for chemical and defense industrial production; this likely represents a targeted effort to degrade UAF sustainment.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk)
Force Disposition: Despite the "Negotiation by Fire" narrative, Russia continues high-intensity ground assaults. The destruction of four platoons (approx. 80-120 personnel) indicates the enemy is still employing "meat assault" tactics to find gaps in the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway defenses.
Terrain: UAF maintains control of key high ground, evidenced by the successful repulsion of the latest multi-platoon assault.
Southern Sector (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia)
Aerial Threat: A new UAV vector from the southeast (0018Z) indicates a launch from occupied Zaporizhzhia or the Sea of Azov. This suggests a multi-pronged strike timed to hit Dnipro simultaneously with Kharkiv and Sumy.
Control Measures: Zaporizhzhia OVA has moved to high-alert status.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Technological Adaptation: Internal Russian documents/claims (via Бутусов Плюс) suggest a concerted effort to bypass the 90 km/h Starlink lockout. This likely involves spoofing terminal GPS data or using modified hardware to maintain C2 during high-speed terminal dives.
Course of Action (Tactical): The enemy is currently executing a coordinated, multi-axis UAV strike. By saturating Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Sumy simultaneously, they are attempting to fix UAF Air Defense assets and identify gaps for a potential follow-on missile strike by the 62nd Missile Division (Baseline Activity Score 11.82).
Attrition: High casualty rates in the Pokrovsk sector (4 platoons lost) suggest Russian tactical commanders are under pressure to achieve territorial gains before the Feb 1st diplomatic window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF 110th/47th Brigades (assumed in Pokrovsk area) continue to demonstrate high tactical proficiency in defeating armored and infantry assaults.
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are actively engaging the current UAV wave. Interception at the "last mile" in Kharkiv suggests the outer ring may be stretched.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Counter-Narrative: Pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are circulating "cleansing" videos (0003Z). These are assessed as high-probability propaganda intended to counter reports of heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector and to project an image of dominance ahead of negotiations.
Domestic Distraction: The TASS report regarding a vehicle accident in Kamchatka (2358Z) is assessed as standard domestic news, likely used to fill the information space and maintain a veneer of "normalcy" within the Russian Federation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued OWA-UAV waves through the night to exhaust AD munitions. Expect a high-readiness transition to a cruise/ballistic missile phase between 0400Z and 0800Z to coincide with the opening of diplomatic channels.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Integration of newly adapted Starlink-enabled strike drones with a massed missile launch from the 62nd Missile Division, targeting the Dnipro-Kharkiv energy bridge to induce a total regional blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical analysis of Russian Starlink "circumvention tactics." Need SIGINT/ELINT on drone-mounted terminal behavior during high-velocity maneuvers.
[URGENT] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kharkiv impacts to determine if the target was energy infrastructure or military logistics.
[HIGH] Status of the 1446th Mobile Command Post. Any transition to "Silent Mode" would indicate an imminent missile launch.
