ACTIVE COMBAT (2235Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Elements of the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Army, "Vostok" Group) have confirmed active fire missions targeting UAF personnel and firing positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
ATTRITION NARRATIVE (2239Z, TASS, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian state media claims UAF casualties for January 2026 exceeded 38,500 personnel. This figure is likely inflated for psychological operations.
DOMESTIC DISCORD OPS (2246Z, TASS, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Russian media is amplifying reports of a "scandal" regarding a military cemetery near Kyiv, likely intended to exploit domestic grief and political friction.
UAF MORALE INDICATOR (2227Z, Шеф Hayabusa, MEDIUM): Direct communications from UAF-aligned channels show high morale, potentially following the successful "Shadow" unit strikes or the delivery of Rodeur 330 munitions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector
Tactical Activity: The confirmation of the 305th Artillery Brigade’s engagement indicates a focus on suppressing UAF defensive positions. This aligns with the previous report of strikes on 15+ settlements to soften defenses.
Force Disposition: The "Vostok" Grouping remains the primary threat in this sector, utilizing organic artillery and likely integrated UAV assets to disrupt UAF logistics.
Kyiv / Strategic Rear
Information Front: The focus on military cemeteries near the capital suggests a Russian shift toward cognitive domain targeting, aiming to degrade public morale by highlighting the human cost of the conflict.
Grid Status: No new kinetic updates; however, the grid remains at "Emergency" status due to the US aid suspension and icing.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas)
Baseline Pressure: The situation remains critical following the loss of Toretske and Petrivka. Fiber-optic FPV drones continue to deny UAF the use of the Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The Russian Federation (RF) is intensifying its "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. While 305th Brigade artillery maintains tactical pressure in the South, the strategic focus is on psychological attrition (casualty claims) and domestic instability (cemetery scandal).
Capability Assessment: The active command and control prep at the 1446th Mobile Command Post (Activity Score 11.82) remains the most significant indicator of a pending mass missile strike.
Tactical Adaptation: Use of "Vostok" Group artillery in coordination with aerial observation continues to be the primary method for degrading UAF "buffer zone" capabilities.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF appears to be maintaining high operational security regarding the deployment of the newly arrived Rodeur 330 munitions.
Resilience: Despite RU psychological operations, internal UAF communications (Hayabusa, 2227Z) suggest a high degree of confidence and potential success in localized counter-battery or drone operations.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: There is a concentrated RU effort to drive a "Morale Decline" (Dempster-Shafer belief 0.39). The TASS reports on casualties (38.5k) and cemetery scandals are classic examples of reflexive control, designed to force UAF leadership to address domestic unrest rather than operational priorities.
Counter-Narrative: UAF-aligned sources are responding with visual confirmations of success, though the specific nature of these successes remains obscured by OPSEC.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued artillery barrages from the 305th Brigade in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Further Russian state media pushes regarding Ukrainian domestic "scandals" to overshadow the February 1st negotiations.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A massed missile launch by the 62nd Missile Division, timed to coincide with a period of peak grid stress and the start of diplomatic talks, aimed at achieving a total blackout in Kyiv and Chernihiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of RU 305th Bde fire mission results—assess if UAF defensive nodes in Zaporizhzhia have been critically compromised.
[HIGH] Monitoring of Ukrainian social media and "Strana" reports for the spread of the "cemetery scandal" to gauge the effectiveness of the RF psychological operation.
[MEDIUM] Satellite or SIGINT confirmation of 62nd Missile Division TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) movement from staging areas to launch positions.
