TERMINATION OF "ENERGY TRUCE" (2116Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the informal or localized "energy truce" expired at 2100Z. Resumption of high-intensity strikes on the power grid is anticipated.
SUMY SECTOR ESCALATION (2117Z, UA Air Force/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Multiple Russian UAVs are currently inbound for Sumy, Konotop, and Vorozhba. Intelligence reports confirm a gradual build-up of Russian forces in Sumy Oblast, specifically shifting activity toward forested areas to mask movements.
STARLINK SECURITY COUNTERMEASURES (2103Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): SpaceX, in collaboration with the Ukrainian MoD, has reportedly implemented new security protocols to disconnect Russian forces from the Starlink network and mitigate drone-linked interference.
CONTESTED STATUS OF NOVOYAKOVLEVKA (2054Z-2100Z, Operatsiya Z/Operativnyi ZSU, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim the capture of Novoyakovlevka (Zaporizhzhia); however, the AFU 17th AK explicitly denies this, citing operational footage. The settlement remains a "grey zone" until visual confirmation is solidified.
DEPLOYMENT OF GROUND ROBOTICS (2059Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Further evidence of "Kurier" (Courier) UGV employment by the Russian "Center" grouping for fire support and logistics in active sectors.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Battlefield Geometry: Intelligence (Tsaplienko, 2117Z) indicates a tactical shift in Russian force disposition. RU forces are moving into forested terrain in Sumy Oblast, likely utilizing the canopy for concealment against aerial reconnaissance.
Current Activity: Active UAV ingress toward Konotop and Sumy. This follows the 24h trend of pressure on the "buffer zone" and signals a transition from reconnaissance to strike operations.
Eastern Sector (Donbas)
Force Dispositions: Russian "Center" grouping is increasingly integrating UGVs (Kurier) into tactical maneuvers. This suggests an attempt to reduce personnel risk during "meat wave" assaults or to provide persistent fire support in high-attrition zones.
Control Measures: TASS (2101Z) claims 24 settlements were seized by RF in January. While likely inflated for propaganda, it reflects the high operational tempo in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia)
Novoyakovlevka Salient: Conflicting reports regarding the control of Novoyakovlevka. Russian paratroopers (VDV) claim an "unseating" of UA positions, while the AFU 17th AK maintains defensive integrity. This sector is experiencing a localized spike in kinetic intensity.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities: The Russian "Rubicon" and "Center" units are successfully operationalizing new tech (Fiber-optic FPVs and "Kurier" UGVs), creating "dead zones" for traditional EW.
Intentions: The expiration of the "energy truce" (2116Z) suggests the Kremlin intends to resume "Negotiation by Fire" ahead of any diplomatic engagements. The focus on Sumy’s forested areas suggests an attempt to establish a more permanent and concealed bridgehead for a wider offensive.
Sustainment: The Kremlin is attempting to maintain domestic stability via indexed social benefits (2119Z), likely to offset the political cost of sustained high casualties in Jan/Feb.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technical Warfare: Successful coordination with SpaceX (2103Z) to deny the enemy Starlink access is a significant force multiplier, potentially degrading RU long-range drone C2 and tactical communication in the short term.
Infrastructure Defense: Kyiv's water supply is confirmed 100% restored (2053Z), though the heating grid remains the primary vulnerability as temperatures drop.
Information environment / disinformation
"Cuban Crisis 2.0": The Rybar/Colonelcassad narrative (2115Z) regarding Geran drones in Cuba is a classic hybrid "distraction" operation. It aims to project Russian global reach and trigger Western escalation fears, detracting focus from the Sumy buildup.
Battlefield Narratives: Rapid-response counter-messaging by the 17th AK regarding Novoyakovlevka (2100Z) indicates a high degree of sensitivity to Russian "fait accompli" information operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Wave-based UAV and missile strikes targeting Sumy and Kyiv’s energy infrastructure following the expiration of the "truce."
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A surprise mechanized thrust from the forested areas of Sumy toward Konotop, timed with a major grid failure to paralyze UA logistics and command response.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Persistent ISR on forested areas of Sumy Oblast to identify the specific units and heavy equipment being moved into position.
[HIGH] Visual verification (Geolocated drone footage) of Novoyakovlevka to confirm current Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT).
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of Russian "Kurier" UGV effectiveness in forest environments versus open Donbas terrain.
