Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-30T12:02Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• REPORTED CAPTURE OF TERNOVATOYE (11:58Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian forces (36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Vostok Group) claim the liberation of Ternovatoye in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
• KHERSON CIVILIAN TARGETING (11:41Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A Russian strike targeted a civilian passenger bus in Kherson, resulting in confirmed deaths and injuries.
• UAV ACTIVITY IN DNIPROPETROVSK (11:52Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force confirms ongoing Shahed/UAV incursions over the Dnipropetrovsk region, likely supporting the current logistics interdiction phase.
• DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION: CANADA CEASES VISA OPERATIONS (11:57Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Canadian visa application centers have officially ceased processing in Russia, requiring citizens to travel abroad for documentation.
• POW NARRATIVE CONTEST (11:37Z-11:56Z, Tsaplienko/Basurin, MEDIUM): Dual propaganda efforts; UAF released video of captured Russian 151st Recon soldiers criticizing leadership near Kupiansk, while RF sources claim the capture of "Azov" personnel near Dimitrov (Myrnohrad).
• DOMESTIC SECURITY IN KHARKIV (12:00Z, UA Gen Prosecutor, HIGH): SBU detained a clergyman in Kharkiv for disseminating pro-Russian propaganda and justifying aggression, indicating ongoing counter-intelligence efforts in the border city.

Operational picture (by sector)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The operational focus is shifting toward the Zaporizhzhia-South Donetsk interface. The reported capture of Ternovatoye (if confirmed) suggests Russian offensive movement intended to broaden the Vremivka salient. The environment remains characterized by high-intensity UAV screening over Dnipropetrovsk and continued long-range strikes against civilian and logistics infrastructure.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

• Zaporizhzhia Sector: The 29th Combined Arms Army is demonstrating localized offensive capability. The capture of Ternovatoye indicates a push to bypass major Ukrainian defensive nodes and threaten regional GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
• Tactical Drone Integration: Russian units (Two Majors, 11:58Z) are increasingly reliant on "people's drones" and volunteer-funded logistics, suggesting that despite official service branch formation (Unmanned Systems Troops), frontline supply for UAVs remains decentralized and dependent on civilian donations.
• Information Warfare: Russian channels are aggressively pushing narratives of "Azov" surrenders (11:56Z) to counter the negative impact of disillusioned Russian POW videos appearing from the Kupiansk sector.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

• Force Disposition: The 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade (Ivano-Frankivsk) is confirmed active in the Zaporizhzhia sector (12:00Z). Intelligence suggests they are a key component of the defensive screen in the south.
• Defensive Operations: The 151st Reconnaissance Battalion continues successful engagement in the Kupiansk direction, focusing on high-value capture and BDA.
• Counter-Hybrid Ops: Ukrainian law enforcement is intensifying sweeps of the "spiritual front," targeting Moscow-linked religious figures to degrade Russian internal influence networks in Kharkiv.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

• International Isolation: The suspension of Canadian visa services adds to the mounting friction for Russian citizens, which pro-Russian channels (Kotsnews, 11:42Z) are attempting to deflect by attacking UN stances on Crimea and Donbas.
• Economic Pressure: Internal RF news regarding taxation of "bonus points" on marketplaces (11:44Z) suggests the Kremlin is seeking unconventional revenue streams to fund the prolonged conflict, potentially impacting domestic morale.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate Ternovatoye and use it as a springboard for localized "probing" attacks toward Gulyaipole. Combined with UAV strikes in Dnipropetrovsk, this aims to pin UAF reserves away from the Pokrovsk axis.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Leveraging the high activity (30.36) detected at GRAU missile arsenals (per previous daily report), the RF launches a saturation strike within the next 6-8 hours targeting the Dnipro river crossings to physically isolate the Zaporizhzhia and Donbas fronts before the Feb 1 diplomatic window.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

High probability of escalated missile/drone activity over Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia city. Expect further Russian claims of tactical advances in the Vremivka sector as they attempt to validate recent gains.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Geolocation and verification of RF presence in Ternovatoye. (Current status: UNCONFIRMED).
2. [HIGH] Assessment of 102nd TDF Brigade combat effectiveness and ammunition levels in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor for movements of the "shadow fleet" tanker released by France to determine if it resumes transport of sanctioned petroleum products.

//REPORT ENDS//