Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-01-30T09:02Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• CAPTURE OF NOVOYAKOVLEVKA (08:38Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): Russian forces, specifically the 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV), have seized Novoyakovlevka in the Zaporizhzhia region. The claim is supported by combat footage and official MoD confirmation.
• VIDEO EVIDENCE FOR TERNOVATOYE (08:40Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Drone footage has been released corroborating earlier claims of the capture of Ternovatoye (Zaporizhzhia) by the "Vostok" Group of Forces.
• ABU DHABI SUMMIT POSTPONEMENT CONFIRMED (08:40Z, Voenkor Kotenok, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed the Feb 1 summit is likely delayed due to the regional situation in Iran, aligning with earlier indications.
• KINETIC SECURITY GUARANTEE STANCE (08:48Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Zelenskyy issued a strategic requirement that international security guarantees must be signed before any final war termination agreement is reached.
• SHAHEED/UAV INFILTRATION (08:36Z-08:54Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active UAV tracks detected from northern Sumy moving toward Chernihiv, and from western Kherson toward Mykolaiv.
• INTERNAL SECURITY SUCCESS (08:49Z, Mash on Donbas, MEDIUM): Reporting indicates nine individuals were detained in occupied Kherson for plotting assassinations of Russian-appointed officials.
• UKRAINIAN VPK COLLABORATION CASE (09:00Z, UA Prosecutor General, HIGH): Legal proceedings initiated against a criminal organization supplying Ukrainian industrial equipment to the Russian military-industrial complex (VPK).

Operational picture (by sector)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW The conflict has entered a period of localized Russian offensive pressure in the Zaporizhzhia sector, coinciding with a diplomatic pause. The "Orange Level" frost (forecasted -14°C to -23°C in border regions like Bryansk through Feb 4) is now a primary environmental factor, likely to shift focus toward energy infrastructure resilience and mechanized mobility constraints.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

• Zaporizhzhia Sector (Tactical Breakthrough): The deployment and successful offensive action of the 11th Separate Guards VDV Brigade in Novoyakovlevka (08:38Z) indicates the Kremlin is committing high-readiness mobile reserves to exploit perceived gaps in the southern line. This shift from motorized rifle units (29th Army) to VDV suggests an intent for rapid tactical gains.
• Air/UAV Operations: The RF continues "probing" strikes using Shahed-type UAVs on the Sumy-Chernihiv and Kherson-Mykolaiv axes (08:36Z, 08:54Z). These are likely intended to map UAF air defense repositioning following recent KAB strikes.
• Logistics & Weather: The extreme cold alert in Bryansk (08:53Z) suggests RF rear logistics in the northern sector will face significant strain, though frozen ground may temporarily improve cross-country mobility for tracked vehicles.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

• Strategic Posture: Zelenskyy has explicitly messaged that Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) will not be ceded without combat (08:43Z). This counters Russian "negotiation by fire" narratives.
• Air Defense: Reports of increased US production of THAAD missiles (08:34Z) provide a positive long-term outlook for high-altitude ballistic defense, though immediate interceptor shortages (Patriot) remain a critical tactical constraint mentioned in the previous sitrep.
• Internal Stability: The Zaporizhzhia OVA’s focus on veteran business grants (08:44Z) serves as a critical domestic morale-stabilizing measure amidst the frontline pressure in that specific province.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

• The "Energy Truce" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Basurin, 08:35Z) are promoting rumors of a Trump-brokered energy truce. ISW analysis (08:54Z) suggests such a moratorium would disproportionately benefit Russia, allowing them to reconstitute strike packages. This is assessed as a disinformation campaign intended to soften international support for Ukrainian "mirror" strikes.
• Legal Warfare: The UA Prosecutor General’s move against VPK collaborators (09:00Z) is a high-confidence signal of intensified internal vetting to disrupt Russian supply chains originating within Ukraine.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate the Ternovatoye-Novoyakovlevka salient to threaten wider UAF defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia. Concurrently, expect a surge in Shahed/missile strikes over the next 48 hours to capitalize on the extreme cold and the Abu Dhabi summit delay.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized VDV-led breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia coupled with a total energy grid failure in Kyiv/Northern Ukraine due to weather-synchronized missile strikes, forcing a diplomatic collapse.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

High probability of continued UAV harassment in Northern and Southern districts. Expect Russian "Vostok" and "Dnepr" groups to attempt further lateral expansion from their newly claimed positions in Zaporizhzhia. UAF counter-drone units in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv should maintain high alert for low-altitude penetrations.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Determine the current combat effectiveness and exact forward edge of the 11th VDV Brigade in the Novoyakovlevka area.
2. [HIGH] Confirm the extent of UAF withdrawals (if any) to secondary defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia sector following the loss of Novoyakovlevka.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor for any shift in Russian long-range aviation (Tu-95/Tu-160) activity levels at Olenya or Engels airbases, which would signal a transition from UAV probing to a massed missile strike.
4. [LOW] Track the impact of the Bryansk cold snap on Russian cross-border logistics and heating infrastructure to identify potential windows for UAF "mirror" strikes on RF energy hubs.

//REPORT ENDS//