Nightwatch

Situation Update (1832Z 29 JAN 2026)

UAV THREAT IN NORTHERN SECTOR (1808Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian Shahed-type UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast, tracking north toward Snovsk. This indicates continued kinetic pressure despite "moratorium" claims.
SBU COUNTER-INTEL BRIEFING (1814Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): President Zelensky received a report from SBU Deputy Alexander Poklad regarding "good results" in neutralizing Russian subversion/information operations.
PERSISTENT INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (1822Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Visual evidence confirms an oil industry facility in Brody (Western Ukraine) continues to burn more than 48 hours after the Jan 27 strike, indicating severe damage and potential failure of local suppression systems.
CONFIRMATION OF "TRUCE" DISCONNECT (1825Z, Operatsiya Z/FT Miller, HIGH): Corroboration that Ukrainian officials first learned of the alleged Trump-brokered "strike moratorium" via media reports. This reinforces the assessment of a Russian/Proxy information operation rather than a bilateral agreement.
ARTILLERY SUCCESS IN EASTERN SECTOR (1831Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): 225th Separate Assault Regiment ("Grom" division) conducted a successful 155mm strike on a concentrated Russian infantry position in a farm building; high enemy casualties reported.
KINETIC ENGAGEMENT KHERSON (1824Z, Two Majors/Saldo, HIGH): Active Russian air defense engagement against Ukrainian UAVs over occupied Kherson Oblast, contradicting any "lull" in the southern theater.

Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Rear):

Air Defense: UA Air Force actively tracking UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (1808Z). This suggests Russia is maintaining a baseline level of aerial harassment.
Kyiv Logistics: Schools are scheduled to return to a hybrid/offline format on February 2 (1824Z). This decision reflects a calculated risk regarding grid stability and security despite the "Orange Level" frost (-21°C to -30°C).
Western Ukraine: The Brody oil facility fire (1822Z) represents a localized logistics and environmental setback, likely impacting regional fuel reserves.

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kharkiv):

Tactical Artillery: UAF 155mm assets (225th Reg) are successfully exploiting Russian infantry concentrations. Precision fire on "pioneer" or "staging" buildings remains effective (1831Z).
Aviation: Russian Su-34 "Bomber" pilots are being used for domestic propaganda (1823Z), likely to maintain morale following recent technical failures and losses.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):

Unmanned Systems: Heavy drone activity reported on both sides. Russian occupation authorities (Saldo) confirm active air defense against UAF UAVs (1824Z).
Force Adaptation: 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMB) "Perun" unit continues to inflict tactical losses via FPV strikes (1814Z).

Tactical Course of Action: Russia is relying on "General Frost" (extreme weather) to degrade Ukrainian utility infrastructure. Pro-Russian channels (1807Z) explicitly call for systemic failure of the Ukrainian energy/social grid due to cold.
Information Operations: Continued focus on the "moratorium" narrative to sow confusion within the Ukrainian C2 and international support base.
Strategic Capabilities: Germany’s move to develop a defense system for the "Oreshnik" IRBM (1809Z) indicates a high-level NATO assessment that Russian strategic missile threats remain a long-term escalatory risk.

Counter-Intelligence: SBU is prioritizing the neutralization of Russian internal destabilization operations, likely linked to the "Orange Level" frost panic and "truce" misinformation (1814Z).
Civil Readiness: Kyiv municipal authorities are proceeding with post-holiday education logistics, signaling an attempt to maintain social normalcy despite energy deficits.

"Truce" Exploitation: Russian-linked channels are amplifying the Financial Times report about Ukraine's surprise regarding the "moratorium" (1825Z) to frame the Ukrainian leadership as "out of the loop" or "uncoordinated" with the incoming US administration.
Language Politics: Russian state media/proxies (Colonelcassad, 1804Z) are attempting to revive domestic linguistic tensions in Ukraine to foster internal social friction during the winter crisis.

MLCOA: Russia will maintain UAV/Shahed pressure on northern and central oblasts to probe Air Defense readiness while officially adhering to the "strike moratorium" rhetoric to avoid diplomatic backlash before Feb 1.
MDCOA: Utilizing the cover of "General Frost" and the "truce" narrative, Russia launches a localized but high-intensity assault in the Donbas to consolidate territory before ground temperatures stabilize or diplomatic talks begin.
Critical Factor: The Brody fire (Western Ukraine) may signal a shift toward "attrition by burning," where Russia targets fuel/energy nodes and lets them consume themselves due to the inability of crews to operate in -25°C conditions.

[CRITICAL] Precise coordinates and damage assessment of the 225th Reg 155mm strike to determine if the targeted "concentration" included high-value command assets or just rank-and-file infantry.
[HIGH] Monitoring of the Shahed flight path from Snovsk. If they track toward energy infrastructure in the Kyiv periphery, it would formally invalidate the "moratorium" claims.
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of German "Oreshnik" detection system specifications to determine the anticipated timeline of Russian IRBM deployment readiness.

//REPORT ENDS//