Situation Update (1232Z 29 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: UAV THREAT TO ROMNY (1216Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) detected vectoring toward Romny, Sumy region. This follows the Russian claim of control over Belaya Bereza earlier today.
- UNCONFIRMED STRIKE: KIROVOHRAD F-16 INFRASTRUCTURE (1212Z, RVvoenkor, LOW): Russian sources claim a successful strike against a training facility/infrastructure for F-16 fighter jets in the Kirovohrad region. No Ukrainian confirmation; assessment is LOW confidence pending BDA.
- DIPLOMATIC: GRU CHIEF AT ABU DHABI TALKS (1226Z, TASS, HIGH): GRU Chief Igor Kostyukov confirmed his presence at the Abu Dhabi negotiations, framing the mood of the Russian delegation as "good" compared to the "sad" Ukrainian delegation. This reinforces the "negotiation by fire" doctrine.
- LOGISTICS: GERMAN ENERGY AID ARRIVAL (1215Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): The first batch of a €120 million German emergency energy package has reached Zaporizhzhia, providing critical redundancy for the grid.
- HUMANITARIAN: CASUALTY EXCHANGE (1225Z, Mobilization News, MEDIUM): A transfer of deceased personnel bodies between both sides was completed.
- INTERNAL SECURITY: RUSSIAN MoD ARREST (1216Z, TASS, HIGH): Vladimir Nikitin, head of a Russian MoD representative office in St. Petersburg, was arrested by the FSB for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing purges or internal friction within the Russian military bureaucracy.
- ECONOMIC: NBU RATE CUT (1206Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered the discount rate from 15.5% to 15%, signaling a move to stimulate the wartime economy despite current kinetic pressures.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv):
The threat axis has shifted toward Romny (1216Z) following the earlier confirmed loss of Belaya Bereza. Russian UAVs are probing deeper into the Sumy region, likely conducting reconnaissance for further tactical advances by the "Sever" Group of Forces.
Central Sector (Kirovohrad/Poltava):
Russian focus has intensified on Ukrainian air capabilities. The claim of a strike on F-16 training infrastructure in Kirovohrad (1212Z) suggests that Russian ISR is prioritizing the disruption of Ukraine's transition to Western air platforms.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv):
UAVs continue to vector toward Mykolaiv from the northeast (1211Z). However, the arrival of German energy equipment in Zaporizhzhia (1215Z) significantly improves the resilience of rear-area logistics and civilian infrastructure against the ongoing "Red Level" cold emergency.
Rear Areas (Russia):
The completion of the salvage operation for the Caspian Shiva in Makhachkala (1212Z) restores the throughput of the Iran-Russia maritime supply line, which is critical for continued UAV and missile deliveries.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Course of Action: Russia is utilizing OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) to maintain persistent pressure on Sumy and Mykolaiv, effectively "pinning" Ukrainian air defenses while their diplomatic delegation uses the kinetic leverage in Abu Dhabi.
- Command & Control: The arrest of a high-ranking MoD official in St. Petersburg (1216Z) suggests that the FSB is continuing its efforts to consolidate control over military procurement and logistics, possibly targeting corruption that has hampered the "Sever" Group's earlier operations.
- Psychological Operations: GRU Chief Kostyukov’s public comments (1226Z) are a textbook example of reflexive control, intended to demoralize Ukrainian domestic audiences and portray the Abu Dhabi talks as a Russian victory before any formal agreements are reached.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Combat Success: The 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) reported successful drone operations resulting in approximately 20 Russian personnel casualties (1222Z), demonstrating continued high proficiency in tactical FPV employment.
- Force Preservation: The 199th Training Center of the Air Assault Forces (DShV) is emphasizing "Platinum Hour" medical training (1204Z), prioritizing casualty care to maintain unit readiness during high-attrition winter fighting.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Operation Spider Web" (1212Z, ASTRA): Russian legal proceedings against truck drivers for a June 2025 sabotage operation are being publicized now to highlight "Ukrainian terrorism," likely to provide a counter-narrative to Ukrainian claims of Russian war crimes.
- Domestic Pacification (Russia): Prime Minister Mishustin’s announcement of increased maternity capital (730k rubles) and social benefit indexation (1209Z) is timed to maintain domestic stability as the 2026 economic slowdown begins to manifest in the Russian MIC.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes into the evening, focusing on Romny and Mykolaiv. Expect further "leaked" details from the Abu Dhabi talks designed to create friction between the Ukrainian government and the public.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed successful missile strike on F-16 infrastructure in Kirovohrad could significantly delay Ukrainian air superiority timelines, emboldening the "Sever" group to expand their salient in Sumy.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verification of the Kirovohrad strike. Need ELINT/IMINT to determine if F-16 related infrastructure was actually compromised or if this is a Russian IO win.
- [HIGH] Monitor UAV flight paths over Romny to determine if they are targeting the regional energy substation or transit logistics.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of Russian "Sever" Group's reserve movements following the capture of Belaya Bereza.
//REPORT ENDS//
