Situation Update (2102Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- AIR COMBAT: DUAL RUSSIAN FIXED-WING LOSSES (2037Z-2049Z, Colonelcassad/Tsaplienko/Kovalenko, HIGH): Confirmed loss of one Russian Su-34 in the Northern direction and one Su-30 in the Southern direction. The Su-34 loss is attributed to "unknown circumstances," while the Su-30 loss is linked to UAF activity.
- AERIAL THREAT: UAV INGRESS TOWARD SLAVUTYCH (2042Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving toward Slavutych, a critical administrative hub for the Chernobyl exclusion zone and energy infrastructure.
- TECH DEPLOYMENT: "ZUBR" ANTI-DRONE SYSTEM (2054Z, Starshe Eddy, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly received the first "Zubr" anti-drone complex. This indicates a rapid tactical pivot to counter UAF FPV superiority.
- HUMANITARIAN RESILIENCE: CABINET ENERGY DIRECTIVE (2059Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has authorized the distribution of charging stations to children with disabilities, a move to mitigate the lethality of ongoing grid instability.
- DIPLOMATIC/ENERGY: EU GAS EXEMPTIONS (2049Z, TASS/Reuters, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the EC may exempt key gas suppliers from checks to facilitate the pivot away from Russian energy, signaling a tightening of the long-term economic blockade.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by high-intensity air defense (AD) engagements. The simultaneous loss of two Russian multirole aircraft suggests either a surge in UAF AD efficiency or a high-risk Russian aviation sortie profile in preparation for the mass strike warned of in the 2032Z report. Weather remains a critical factor; sub-zero temperatures persist, making energy infrastructure the primary operational center of gravity. The detection of UAVs heading toward Slavutych (2042Z) suggests a continued effort to probe and degrade the northern power corridor.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
- Aviation Attrition: The loss of an Su-34 (North) and Su-30 (South) within a 15-minute reporting window is a significant tactical setback. The "unknown circumstances" regarding the Su-34 (2037Z) may indicate a technical failure or an unobserved long-range AD intercept (e.g., Patriot or F-16).
- Counter-UAS Adaptation: The deployment of the "Zubr" system (2054Z) suggests Russia is attempting to close the "fiber-optic vs. EW" gap. Analysts should monitor for the integration of these systems around high-value logistics hubs.
- UAV Operations: The vector toward Slavutych (2042Z) indicates an intent to pressure the Kyiv-Chernihiv energy axis, likely intended to force the relocation of AD assets away from the capital.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- Enemy air assets are being pushed to high-tempo operations despite the attrition, likely to support the "negotiation by fire" strategy preceding the Feb 1 Abu Dhabi talks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
- Air Defense: UAF AD units demonstrated high lethality in both Northern and Southern sectors. Readiness remains at "RED" (highest) in anticipation of a retaliatory or pre-planned mass missile wave.
- Civil-Military Cooperation: The provision of charging stations (2059Z) reflects an organized effort to sustain the most vulnerable populations, supporting rear-area stability.
Tactical Successes:
- Successful interdiction of high-value air targets (Su-30/Su-34) degrades Russian capability to conduct precision strikes and provides a significant morale boost (Ref: DS Belief 0.64 on Ukrainian info-ops success).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Russian IO: Pro-Russian channels are attempting to dilute the news of aircraft losses by circulating videos of alleged TCC (recruitment) friction in Dnipro (2059Z). This is a standard reflexive control tactic to shift focus to internal Ukrainian instability. (UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE).
- Strategic Signaling: Senator Marco Rubio’s comments regarding preemptive strikes on Iran (2035Z) are being heavily circulated by Ukrainian channels (Sternenko). This serves to signal to Russia that its primary drone supplier is under increased US pressure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Following the loss of two aircraft, Russia will likely accelerate the timeline for its massed aerial strike (Ref: 2032Z warning) to regain the initiative. Expect a 0200Z-0500Z launch window targeting the Kyiv and Chernihiv energy infrastructure.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike using the remaining Su-34/Su-35 fleet for SEAD/DEAD (Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses) to "open" a corridor for cruise missiles, specifically targeting the AD units responsible for today's aircraft kills.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [URGENT] Confirmation of the weapon system used to down the Su-34 in the Northern direction to determine if a new capability has been deployed.
- [HIGH] Technical specifications and deployment locations of the "Zubr" anti-drone system.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of the Slavutych UAV vector—determine if the target is the local substation or the railway transition point.
//REPORT ENDS//
