DEEP STRIKE: VORONEZH OIL DEPOT (1134Z, ASTRA, HIGH): UAF General Staff confirmed a successful strike on the "Khokholskaya" oil depot in the Voronezh region (RF). This targets RU tactical logistics and fuel sustainability.
TACTICAL SUCCESS: LYMAN SECTOR (1151Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF forces captured a Russian sniper and a signalman during a house-clearing operation in Lyman, Donetsk region. First-person footage confirms the capture.
STRATEGIC PRESSURE: BALTIC SEA BLOCKADE (1150Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a coalition of 14 European nations is moving to block Russia’s "shadow fleet" in the Baltic Sea, targeting RU's primary mechanism for sanctions evasion and energy export.
INTERNAL RU SECURITY: DAGESTAN ATTACK (1137Z, Voyenkor Kotenok, LOW): Unconfirmed reports of an armed attack by "Wahhabi" elements on police in Dagestan. If corroborated, this indicates domestic instability requiring RU National Guard (Rosgvardia) diversion.
AERIAL ENGAGEMENT: SU-25 CLAIM (1152Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian Su-25 by a VKS fighter. UNCONFIRMED; likely Russian propaganda for domestic consumption.
VISUAL CONFIRMATION: KALUGA INDUSTRIAL FIRE (1151Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms the fire at the AGR Automotive (formerly Volkswagen) plant in Kaluga has been extinguished. While reported as an accident, its location remains a focus for potential sabotage analysis.
Operational picture (by sector)
Lyman Sector:
UAF units are conducting successful close-quarters clearing operations. The capture of specialized personnel (sniper/signalman) at 1151Z suggests Russian units in this pocket may be experiencing command and control (C2) breakdowns or localized isolation.
Kostiantynivka Sector:
Winter conditions are severely impacting visibility and movement. Aerial footage (1133Z) shows extreme urban destruction. Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade is actively using FPV drones to interdict UAF rotations and logistics (1200Z), attempting to exploit the weather-induced friction.
Voronezh / Russian Rear:
The UAF strike on the "Khokholskaya" oil depot (1134Z) indicates a continued focus on degrading Russian fuel LOCs supporting the Donbas offensive. Russian air defenses (Brigade "Sever") claim to have intercepted multiple drones overnight (1147Z), suggesting a multi-vector UAF drone campaign.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): The enemy continues to prioritize "Sensor-to-Shooter" drone operations to paralyze UAF movement. The use of Spetsnaz for logistical interdiction (1200Z) suggests a shift toward precision attrition rather than just "meat assaults."
Internal Security: The reported attack in Dagestan (1137Z) suggests a possible resurgence of Caucasus-based insurgency. This may force the Russian MoD to retain or redeploy internal security assets (Rosgvardia) away from occupied territories.
VKS Operations: Russian Aerospace Forces remain aggressive, claiming air-to-air kills (1152Z). While the Su-25 claim is unconfirmed, VKS activity remains a high threat to UAF close air support.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF remains capable of penetrating Russian airspace to strike high-value logistical targets (Voronezh).
Frontline Tactics: High-res video of clearing operations in Lyman demonstrates maintained proficiency in urban warfare and the capture of high-value individual targets (HVI) for intelligence exploitation.
Border Management: The State Border Guard Service (DPSU) is actively countering narratives regarding mass youth emigration (1152Z), a critical component of maintaining the "human reserve" narrative.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Reflexive Control: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating highly biased content regarding Belarusian opposition leaders in Poland (1140Z) to strain UA-Polish-Belarusian relations.
Demographic Warfare: The narrative of "500,000 youth fleeing Ukraine" (1152Z) is assessed as a targeted psychological operation to undermine mobilization efforts and national morale.
International Outreach: Russia is using the "Wings India" air show to project industrial normalcy and bypass isolation narratives through civilian aviation exports (1152Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued Russian FPV drone saturation in the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk sectors to prevent UAF from reinforcing positions during the cold snap. Expect continued UAF drone strikes on RU border regions (Voronezh/Belgorod) to disrupt fuel supply.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A major Russian missile/UAV "City-Kill" wave (as warned in the 24h context) timed with the deepening freeze to cause a total grid collapse in eastern urban centers.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA for "Khokholskaya" oil depot strike to assess the duration of fuel supply disruption for the Kharkiv/Donetsk fronts.
[HIGH] Corroboration of the Su-25 loss. Monitor UAF Air Force communications and Russian social media for crash site imagery.
[MEDIUM] Analysis of the Dagestan police attack. Determine if this is an isolated incident or part of a coordinated internal threat to RU security.
