Nightwatch

Situation Update (1032Z 28 JAN 2026)

OPERATIONAL BUILD-UP: SIVERSK SALIENT (1030Z, Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): The 81st Airmobile Brigade confirms Russian forces are daily accumulating resources in the Serebryanske Forest and Siversk sector for imminent assaults on Dronivka, Platonivka, and Zakitne.
AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT: CRIMEA/KURSK (1021Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted between 08:00 and 13:00 MSK over Crimea, Kursk, and the Black Sea. This indicates a sustained Ukrainian multi-axis deep strike operation.
STRATEGIC DEGRADATION: SBU "ALPHA" RESULTS (1027Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): SBU special forces released consolidated data on long-range strikes: 5 airfields targeted, 15 aircraft destroyed/damaged, and approximately $1 billion in Russian assets neutralized.
HYBRID WARFARE: "SHADOW FLEET" BLOCKADE (1004Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): 14 European nations are reportedly coordinating to block Russia’s "shadow fleet" in the Baltic Sea to enforce oil sanctions.
REAR AREA INCIDENT: KALUGA PLANT FIRE (1020Z, TASS, MEDIUM): A fire/smoke incident at the AGR automotive plant in Kaluga (formerly Volkswagen) resulted in staff evacuation. Potential sabotage or industrial friction.
GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT: SYRIAN TRANSITION (1025Z, TASS, HIGH): Syrian transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has arrived in Moscow. Kremlin refuses to comment on potential extradition of Bashar al-Assad.

Siversk / Lyman Sector:

Accumulation: Russian forces are concentrating manpower and hardware in Serebryanske Forest (1030Z). The tactical objective is likely to seize Dronivka and Platonivka to isolate the Siversk salient.
Kinetic Activity: Heavy clashes reported near Drobysheve, Torske, and towards Novoserhiyivka (1021Z, GSZSU).

Pokrovsk / Kostiantynivka Sector:

High Intensity: Continued engagements near Rodynske, Kotlyne, Udachne, and towards Bilytske (1021Z). The enemy is maintaining a high tempo of pressure to exploit gaps in the central defensive line.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia / Kherson):

Aviation Surge: Russian tactical aviation conducted significant strikes across Velykomykhaylivka, Orly, and multiple settlements in Zaporizhzhia (Zaliznychne, Charivne) (1021Z).
Southern Defense Success: UAF South reports destroying ~200 personnel, 1 BMP, 8 artillery systems, and significantly, 47 UAV operator teams in the last 24 hours (1023Z). This highlights a successful counter-battery and counter-drone campaign.
Kherson: One Russian assault on the left bank/islands was repelled (1022Z).

Northern Sector (Kharkiv):

Slobozhansky Direction: Clashes near Prylipka and Vovchanski Khutory indicate the enemy is maintaining fixing actions to prevent UAF redeployments (1021Z).

Tactical Shifts: Increased emphasis on destroying Ukrainian UAV launch sites (1005Z, RU-aligned sources). Russia is attempting to blind UAF tactical reconnaissance before the Siversk assault.
Capabilities: Russian MoD continues to project a "Special Military Operation" status report (1008Z) emphasizing broad frontline pressure, likely to mask specific resource shortages.
Logistics: Recognition of volunteers protecting the border with "veteran status" (1028Z) suggests Russia is struggling to staff border security with regular units, relying on irregulars.

Asymmetric Strikes: Successful targeting of a Russian UAV storage warehouse and control point (1021Z, Tsaplienko). This directly counters the Russian UAV accumulation noted in previous reports.
Active Defense: High attrition of Russian UAV operators in the south (47 teams) suggests localized EW and FPV superiority in that sector (1023Z).

Slovakian Pivot: Reports indicate PM Fico has rejected an invitation to Trump’s "Peace Council" (1003Z, Sternenko). If confirmed, this suggests a rift in the perceived "pro-Russian" bloc in Central Europe.
Internal Russian Narrative: State media is promoting a documentary titled "Betrayal" (1016Z), likely designed to prepare the domestic audience for purges or to explain military setbacks as internal treachery.
Tech Propaganda: Promotion of Chinese sniper drones (1002Z) is assessed as a psychological effort to signal continued high-tech support from Beijing despite official denials.

Most Likely (MLCOA): Commencement of a multi-pronged assault on the Siversk salient from the Serebryanske Forest. Continued Russian aviation strikes in Zaporizhzhia to soften defenses ahead of ground probes.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A coordinated missile/UAV strike on the energy nodes of the four blacked-out oblasts (identified in the 1000Z sitrep) to permanently degrade repair capabilities while temperatures remain low.

[CRITICAL] Confirm the current status of the 81st Airmobile Brigade’s ammunition stocks in light of the reported Siversk accumulation.
[HIGH] Verify the scale of damage at the Kaluga AGR plant to determine if this was a successful partisan action (SBU/GUR).
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of Ahmed al-Sharaa in Moscow for signs of a Russia-Syria-Iran tactical realignment that may impact Russian force posture in Ukraine (potential redeployment of Russian assets from Syria).

//REPORT ENDS//