Situation Update (0832Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC STRIKE: ZAPORIZHZHIA RESIDENTIAL HIT (0817Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Confirmed Russian strikes on residential quarters at 0440Z. Casualties have risen to 6 civilians wounded, with at least one hospitalization (0820Z, Fedorov).
- AERIAL THREAT: NEW UAV VECTORS (0821Z-0825Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple Shahed-type UAVs detected over Chernihiv region (approaching Bakhmach) and Dnipropetrovsk region (heading toward Pavlohrad and Magdalynivka).
- TACTICAL SUCCESS: HULIAIPOLE "KILL ZONE" (0812Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully lured Russian units into a prepared kill zone in the Huliaipole sector (Zaporizhzhia), resulting in "total destruction" of the localized assault group via drone strikes.
- INTERDICTION OPS: KOSTIANTYNIVKA (0827Z, 28th OMBr, HIGH): Drone operators from the 28th Mechanized Brigade are actively severing Russian logistics and preventing artillery deployment on the approaches to the city.
- REAR AREA IMPACT: BRODY SMOLDER (0811Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Significant smoke and secondary environmental effects persist in Brody (Lviv region) following yesterday's strike on the Druzhba pipeline infrastructure.
- THREAT ESCALATION: "ORESHNIK" WARNING (0831Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Russian mil-bloggers are amplifying claims of a pending mass strike on Kyiv and energy/gas hubs using the "Oreshnik" ballistic system. Analytical Note: Likely coordinated psychological pressure following the GRAU arsenal movement noted in the Daily Report.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Central Sector:
Air defense remains active over Chernihiv (0821Z). The movement of UAVs toward Bakhmach suggests a continuation of the strategy to probe the northern corridors toward Kyiv.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Donbas):
- Kostiantynivka: The 28th OMBr is maintaining a defensive buffer by utilizing FPV drones to interdict Russian supply lines (0827Z). This suggests Russian forces are attempting to build up artillery density for a renewed push on the city.
- Dnepropetrovsk: RU MoD claims a strike on a UAF drone coordination facility (0808Z). While unconfirmed, the area remains under heavy surveillance and ballistic threat.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Crimea):
- Zaporizhzhia City: Transitioned from a logistics hub to a primary "City-Kill" target. The 0440Z strike (0817Z) confirms intentional targeting of residential areas to degrade civilian morale.
- Huliaipole: UAF tactical victory (0812Z) suggests the frontline here remains fluid but heavily monitored by UAF ISR.
- Sevastopol (Occupied): Reported UAF drone activity resulted in one injury (0815Z), indicating UAF's continued ability to penetrate Crimean AD despite the RU "mapping" wave.
Western Sector:
The situation in Brody (0811Z) highlights the long-term logistical disruption of the Druzhba pipeline strike. Smoke levels indicate significant fuel/oil fires are still being managed.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
- Capabilities: Russia is increasingly using "recycling" in the information domain, recirculating footage from Feb 2024 (Su-25 shootdown) to mask current tactical stagnation (0803Z, 0822Z).
- Intentions: The focus has shifted to localized "transportation terror" and residential strikes (Zaporizhzhia).
- Strategic Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: Continued attrition of the energy grid via UAVs and targeted strikes on remaining nodes like Pavlohrad.
- MDCOA: A coordinated "Oreshnik" or multi-vector missile strike on Kyiv. The heat signatures at the GRAU Arsenal (Daily Report) and the specific "Oreshnik" rumors (0831Z) suggest RU is preparing the information space for a high-casualty, high-visibility kinetic event.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Special Operations: SBU "Alpha" unit released a summary claiming the destruction of 15 aircraft across 5 airfields in the past year (0810Z), signaling a sustained long-range strike capability.
- Strategic Resilience: High-level negotiations with US representatives regarding post-war reconstruction (0830Z) indicate the government is focusing on long-term stability even under increased kinetic pressure.
- Tactical Interdiction: Shift toward aggressive drone-led denial of service for RU artillery (Kostiantynivka) is effectively slowing the RU tempo in the Donbas.
Information environment / disinformation
- Diplomatic Wedges: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily amplifying alleged friction between Slovak PM Fico and the US, specifically targeting Donald Trump’s stability (0813Z, 0825Z). This is a clear attempt to disrupt NATO cohesion.
- Domestic Distraction: TASS reporting on minor crime in Moscow (0828Z) and the sentencing of a 14-year-old for "terrorism" (0804Z) serves to reinforce the "internal enemy" narrative within Russia.
- Psychological Operations: Recirculation of old Su-25 crash footage (0822Z) aims to counter recent UAF tactical successes by projecting air superiority that may not be present in the current timeframe.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- High Risk: Mass missile/UAV strike on the energy/gas infrastructure in Western and Central Ukraine, potentially involving the "Oreshnik" system as a demonstration of force.
- Tactical: Increased RU pressure in the Pavlohrad/Dnipropetrovsk direction as UAVs continue to map defenses.
- Logistics: Possible secondary strikes on rail/road repair crews in the wake of the morning train attack (previous sitrep).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verify current location and launch readiness of "Oreshnik" assets or similar IRBM capabilities.
- [HIGH] Assess the extent of damage to the UAV coordination point in Dnepropetrovsk claimed by RU MoD (0808Z).
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for confirmation of Fico’s comments via independent Western channels to determine if the TASS report (0813Z) is an outright fabrication or a distorted leak.
//REPORT ENDS//
