Situation Update (0705Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- AERIAL THREAT: MULTI-AXIS UAV WAVE (0635Z–0701Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian UAVs (Geran/Shahed) are currently active across multiple vectors. A group originally transiting Poltava has changed course toward Cherkasy/Zolotonosha (0646Z). A separate group is moving west through Rivne toward Volyn (0647Z), and a new vector is approaching Mykolaiv from the east (0701Z).
- INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT: ZAPORIZHZHIA GRID (0639Z, Mash, MEDIUM): Over 25,000 civilians are reported without power across three municipal districts in Zaporizhzhia following morning strikes.
- CASUALTY UPDATE: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0632Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Confirmed casualties from the morning kinetic strikes have risen to four.
- TACTICAL OFFENSIVE: VOVCHANSK SECTOR (0655Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MEDIUM): Russian Spetsnaz elements report offensive movement "south along the river" in the Vovchansk area (Kharkiv Oblast), suggesting an attempt to exploit riverine terrain for infiltration.
- AIR LOSS CLAIM: SU-25 DOWNED (0637Z, Fighterbomber, LOW): Pro-Russian sources have circulated footage allegedly showing the final seconds and crash of a Ukrainian Su-25 piloted by Vladislav Rykov. UNCONFIRMED by UAF; assessed as a significant potential loss of an experienced airframe/pilot.
- DIPLOMATIC CONDITIONality: US SECURITY GUARANTEES (0647Z, Reuters/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports indicate US security guarantees may be contingent on Ukraine first signing a peace agreement with Russia.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Central Sector (Kyiv/Cherkasy/Poltava):
The UAV threat remains dynamic. Russian operators are utilizing course corrections (Poltava to Cherkasy) to circumvent established Air Defense (AD) corridors. The movement toward Zolotonosha suggests a potential focus on critical infrastructure near the Dnieper River.
Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn):
Persistence of UAVs in the Rivne/Volyn axis indicates a continued effort to disrupt Western logistics hubs or sensor networks.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Kharkiv City and 16 settlements were struck in the last 24 hours (0648Z). The report of Russian movement "south along the river" in Vovchansk indicates a localized push to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions established during the summer campaign.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv):
Zaporizhzhia is suffering significant utility degradation (25,000 without power). The detection of UAVs moving toward Mykolaiv from the east (0701Z) aligns with Dempster-Shafer belief scores (0.108) indicating a deliberate reconnaissance or strike mission on southern maritime infrastructure.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
- Course Maneuverability: RU UAV operators are demonstrating increased tactical flexibility, using mid-flight course changes to "hunt" gaps in UAF mobile fire group coverage.
- Defensive Shielding: The formal deployment of "Zubr" C-UAS systems (0645Z) confirms Russia is prioritizing the protection of its own rear-area assets (Rostec-supplied) against UAF deep strikes.
- Course of Action (COA): RU is likely using the Vovchansk riverine push to draw UAF reserves away from the Donbas "fire pockets" mentioned in previous reports.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense Engagement: UAF AF is actively tracking and vectoring against UAV threats in four separate oblasts simultaneously.
- Civilian Protection: National "Minute of Silence" (0900 local) was observed across all military and civil administrations (0658Z–0700Z), maintaining internal cohesion despite kinetic pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
- Diplomatic Leverage: The Reuters report (0652Z) regarding US security guarantee conditions is being amplified to induce "aid fatigue" and pressure the Ukrainian leadership toward concessions.
- Hungarian Obstructionism: Pro-Russian channels are highlighting Hungarian demands to cease EU funding for Ukraine (0701Z), framing it as a collapse of Western unity.
- Russian Internal Instability: Reports of a Russian "SVO" veteran committing murder/hostage-taking in Irkutsk (0654Z) highlight the ongoing domestic blowback of RU force generation policies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Impact of UAVs in the Cherkasy and Mykolaiv sectors. Continued power outages in Zaporizhzhia as RU targeters focus on repair crews.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A confirmed breakthrough south of Vovchansk that threatens the flank of the Kharkiv defensive line, synchronized with a large-scale missile launch from the GRAU arsenal (ref: Previous Daily Report).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of Su-25 status and pilot recovery efforts.
- [HIGH] Real-time tracking of UAVs in the Volyn sector; determine if they are targeting border crossings or energy substations.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of RU riverine capabilities in Vovchansk (use of small boats or pontoon equipment).
//REPORT ENDS//
