Situation Update (0532Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- AERIAL THREAT: ZHYTOMYR OBLAST (0515Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Russian UAVs previously over Kyiv Oblast have transited into northern Zhytomyr Oblast, maintaining a westward heading. This confirms a deep penetration flight path aimed at Western Ukraine.
- KINETIC IMPACT: ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES (0510Z-0525Z, Zaporizhzhia RMA, HIGH): Confirmed 1 civilian fatality (female) and 2 injuries following strikes on residential infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia district. Imagery shows significant shrapnel damage to apartment balconies.
- OFFENSIVE OPS: DOBROPILLYA BREAKTHROUGH CLAIM (0531Z, Operation Z, LOW): Russian sources claim a tactical breakthrough into "Novyi Donbas" and the formation of a "cauldron" near Dobropillya. UNCONFIRMED.
- SANCTIONS EVASION: MARITIME SECTOR (0506Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a Russian oil tanker successfully bypassed sanctions with alleged Spanish assistance.
- GEOPOLITICAL: US STATEMENTS (0523Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): US political rhetoric regarding a naval "armada" moving toward Iran suggests a broadening of global maritime tensions that may impact Western attention on the Ukrainian theater.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Zhytomyr/Kyiv):
The threat vector has shifted west. UAVs are now transiting northern Zhytomyr (0515Z). This suggests the RUAF is not targeting Kyiv city exclusively but is using the northern corridor to strike logistics hubs or energy infrastructure in Western Ukraine.
Donetsk Sector (Dobropillya/Pokrovsk):
The operational tempo near Dobropillya has intensified. The claim of a "cauldron" (0531Z) and a breakthrough into "Novyi Donbas" (a settlement/area northwest of the current Pokrovsk salient) indicates a concerted effort by the 150th MSD to achieve a maneuver success. However, "cauldron" terminology is frequently used hyperbolically in RU psychological operations; frontline stability remains to be verified.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Recent strikes (0510Z) have transitioned from industrial/military targeting to residential areas, resulting in confirmed civilian casualties. This aligns with the "City-Kill" doctrine noted in recent 24h summaries, aimed at degrading civilian morale and straining emergency services.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Aviation/UAV: RUAF is utilizing a "contour-hugging" or bypass flight path through Zhytomyr to evade the dense AD clusters around Kyiv. The westward course indicates potential targeting of Western supply routes or the Druzhba pipeline segments.
- Ground Forces: The RU 35th Army and 150th MSD appear to be synchronized. While the 35th Army degrades C3 in Polohy (previous sitrep), the 150th is attempting the main effort breakthrough toward Dobropillya.
- Logistics: Continued reliance on "shadow fleet" oil exports (0506Z) remains the primary sustainment mechanism for the RU war economy.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense: UAF AF is actively tracking and likely engaging the westward-moving UAV wave.
- Civil Defense: Zaporizhzhia RMA is actively managing the aftermath of residential strikes, though the frequency of attacks is stretching local medical and rescue resources.
Information environment / disinformation
- RF Domestic Messaging: TASS and Moscow-based channels are heavily emphasizing domestic "stability" and minor tragedies (Lake Baikal accident 0516Z, Moscow snow removal 0527Z) to overshadow the impact of the UAF's 75-drone wave against RU territory.
- Industrial Propaganda: The debut of the Il-114-300 and SJ-100 (0521Z) is being used to project a narrative of technological self-sufficiency despite international sanctions.
- Narrative Manipulation: The use of the term "Dobropillya Cauldron" (0531Z) is a deliberate attempt to trigger psychological panic and suggest a collapse of the UAF northwestern flank.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): UAVs currently over Zhytomyr will likely strike infrastructure targets in Khmelnytskyi or Rivne Oblasts within the next 2-4 hours. RUAF will continue high-intensity "probing" near Dobropillya to fix UAF reserves.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A genuine breakthrough in the Dobropillya sector leading to the severance of the T0504 highway, coinciding with a massive missile wave (leveraging the GRAU arsenal movements) to paralyze the UAF rear during a tactical retreat.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Immediate GEOINT/Drone recon of "Novyi Donbas" to confirm or deny the RU "breakthrough" and assess the status of UAF defensive lines.
- [HIGH] ELINT/SIGINT monitoring of the UAV wave over Zhytomyr to determine if they are carrying Starlink terminals or other advanced guidance systems as previously suspected.
- [MEDIUM] Diplomatic clarification regarding the "Spanish assistance" to RU oil tankers to assess potential cracks in the EU sanctions regime.
//REPORT ENDS//
