TERMINATION OF BALLISTIC THREAT (0137Z, AFU Air Force/RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): The immediate threat from ballistic weaponry across the southern and central sectors has subsided. This concludes the high-speed engagement window identified at 0119Z.
STAND-DOWN OF AIR ALERTS: ZAPORIZHZHIA (0144Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens have been deactivated in the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating the transit of threats through this corridor has ceased.
UNCONFIRMED GLOBAL ESCALATION NARRATIVE (0137Z, Operation Z, LOW): Russian-linked sources are reporting statements regarding a US naval armada approaching Iran. This is currently assessed as out-of-theater information operations intended to distract or suggest a broadening global conflict.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Kherson/Odesa):
Battlefield Geometry: The "high-speed target" vectoring toward Mykolaiv (0119Z) is no longer active following the 0137Z "all-clear."
Current Force Disposition: AD units remain in a state of high readiness, but the immediate pressure from ballistic/supersonic assets has transitioned to a post-engagement phase.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk/Kirovohrad/Pavlohrad/Zaporizhzhia):
Battlefield Geometry: The 0144Z stand-down in Zaporizhzhia suggests that the OWA-UAV group previously heading for Pavlohrad (0127Z) has either been neutralized, changed course, or reached its terminal phase.
Critical Infrastructure: No updated BDA is available for the 0102Z kinetic impacts on the Dnipropetrovsk/Kirovohrad border.
Northern/Eastern Sector (Sumy/Donetsk):
Sumy Axis: While ballistic threats are cleared, the tactical threat from VKS aircraft launching KABs (0125Z) likely persists as these are not typically covered under "ballistic" all-clear notices.
Donetsk Axis: No new tactical data. "Kuryer" ground robots remain a confirmed operational factor in the Pokrovsk sector (per Daily Report).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities/Intentions: The conclusion of the ballistic phase suggests a successful cycle of the enemy’s "staggered-sync" strike pattern. The intent was likely to saturate defenses to allow the high-speed targets (Iskander/Kinzhal) to penetrate, though the 0137Z all-clear suggests the window for this specific wave has closed.
Tactical Changes: The enemy appears to be utilizing short, high-intensity ballistic bursts rather than sustained barrages, possibly to conserve stocks for the major 24-48h wave predicted by GRAU arsenal heat signatures.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense has successfully transitioned through a complex multi-vector threat (ballistics + UAVs).
Operational Status: Focus is shifting to damage assessment and re-arming AD platforms.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Hybrid Operations: The reporting of US-Iran tensions (0137Z) by Russian "military correspondents" (Voenkory) aligns with an effort to shift focus away from Ukrainian tactical successes (e.g., the Tor-M2 destruction in Crimea) and toward a narrative of Western overextension.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical models show a moderate belief (0.53) in troop movements in the Iranian region, but within the Ukrainian theater, this is categorized as Information Warfare (0.09 belief) intended to affect morale and strategic focus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): A temporary lull in long-range strikes as the enemy conducts BDA of the 0100Z-0200Z wave. Continued tactical KAB strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv to maintain pressure on the northern defensive line.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): The ballistic "all-clear" is a deceptive pause to encourage the stand-down of mobile AD groups before a secondary, larger wave of OWA-UAVs or low-altitude cruise missiles (Kalibr) launched from the Black Sea.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Confirm status of Pavlohrad UAV group (0127Z); clarify if the 0144Z Zaporizhzhia all-clear includes the neutralization of these assets.
[HIGH] BDA for Mykolaiv and the Dnipropetrovsk border impacts to assess damage to the energy grid or logistics nodes.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for Tu-95MS takeoffs from Olenya or Engels airbases, which would signal the start of the predicted massed strike wave.
