DIPLOMATIC ARCHITECTURE: 20-POINT PEACE PLAN STRUCTURE DEFINED (1833Z, ASTRA/Sybiha, HIGH): Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha confirmed the proposed framework involves two distinct bilateral agreements: one between Ukraine and the US, and a separate one between the US and Russia. This confirms the US role as the primary mediator and guarantor.
AERIAL THREAT: MULTI-REGION KAB STRIKES (1843Z-1848Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. This indicates a sustained high-tempo aerial bombardment targeting both frontline and near-rear areas.
LOGISTICAL INTERDICTION: KUPIANSK SECTOR (1855Z, Tsaplienko/Khartia, MEDIUM): The UAF National Guard unit "Khartia" is actively targeting Russian logistical routes near Kupiansk using FPV drones, specifically focusing on transport vehicles to disrupt sustainment.
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE: MIRAGE & SAMP/T TRANSFER (1848Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): France is finalizing a new military aid package including Mirage fighter jets and additional missiles for SAMP/T air defense systems, addressing critical UAF gaps in air superiority and missile defense.
MARITIME ENFORCEMENT: SANCTIONS EVASION CRACKDOWN (1842Z, Tsaplienko/BBC, HIGH): The US Coast Guard has removed the captain and senior mate of the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in UK waters following its seizure for suspected transport of Venezuelan oil, signaling intensified enforcement of energy sanctions.
DOMESTIC THREAT (RUSSIA): BRYANSK UAV ALERT (1838Z, Bogomaz, MEDIUM): Local authorities in Bryansk Oblast issued a high-level "drone danger" alert, instructing civilians to take cover, suggesting active UAF deep-strike or reconnaissance drone operations in the border region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeast Sector (Kharkiv/Kupiansk/Sumy):
Kharkiv/Kupiansk: The Russian 6th Guards Combined Arms Army (Sever Group) is utilizing Giatsint-S self-propelled artillery to target UAF fortifications and UAV command nodes (1837Z, MoD Russia). Simultaneously, UAF "Khartia" units are conducting aggressive drone interdiction against Russian transport in the Kupiansk direction (1855Z).
Sumy: A Shahed-type UAV was detected passing Shostka on a SW course toward the interior (1852Z).
Casualty Update: Fatalities from the Russian drone strike on the Kharkiv passenger train have been confirmed at three (1845Z).
Donetsk Sector (Siversk/Pokrovsk/Bakhmut axis):
Frontline Dynamics: UAF reports indicate a continuation of Russian "meat assaults"—high-frequency infantry charges with minimal armored support. Combat footage shows high RU attrition and instances of RU personnel self-detonating rather than facing capture/fire (1841Z, Operativno ZSU).
Aerial Pressure: KAB launches confirmed against targets in Donetsk Oblast (1848Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: New UAV activity detected in the eastern portion of the region, moving west (1900Z). Regional authorities have issued an alert (1859Z).
Dnipropetrovsk: Under active KAB threat (1843Z), likely targeting logistical hubs supporting the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shifts: Russia is maintaining its heavy reliance on KABs to compensate for ground-level friction. The use of Giatsint-S in the Sever Group suggests a focus on long-range counter-battery and C2 suppression in the Kharkiv region.
Sustainability: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers (e.g., Dva Mayora) have pivoted to cryptocurrency fundraising for specific special units (1833Z), indicating potential localized shortages in state-provided specialized equipment or a need for rapid procurement outside standard MoD channels.
Information Warfare: RU channels are leveraging the anniversary of the Leningrad Siege liberation (1841Z) to reinforce the domestic "besieged fortress" narrative, likely to bolster morale ahead of continued high-attrition offensives.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Interdiction: Focused drone operations in the Kupiansk sector (Khartia) are successfully targeting the "last mile" of Russian logistics.
Strategic Modernization: The confirmation of French Mirage jets will require rapid integration of pilots and ground crews; however, it offers a long-term solution to Russian KAB-launching aircraft.
Defensive Resilience: Localized counter-interdiction in the Pokrovsk/Donetsk sectors remains effective at attriting RU infantry before they reach UAF forward edge of the battle area (FEBA).
Information environment / disinformation
Peace Plan Narratives: The "20-point plan" is being framed differently across the divide. While Sybiha emphasizes the structural bilateralism (Ukraine-US), Russian-aligned sources (Alex Parker) are attempting to refocus the narrative on strategic priority shifts between Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia to sow confusion about UAF's main effort (1857Z).
International Context: Reports regarding US policy shifts in Gaza (NYT/TASS, 1854Z) are being monitored by both sides as a potential bellwether for how a future US administration might handle "Peace Councils" or territorial administration in Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes across the eastern arc (Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk). The UAV currently over Shostka will likely reach the Chernihiv or Kyiv regional borders within 2-3 hours.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike on Zaporizhzhia energy or C2 nodes, utilizing the east-to-west UAV flight path (1900Z) as a precursor to a larger missile or KAB wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Verify the specific airfield supporting the KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk to enable potential long-range counter-strikes.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the Marinera crew removal on Russian Baltic/North Sea oil transit patterns.
[MEDIUM] Determine if the "meat assaults" in Donetsk are being supported by the recently noted "Kuryer" ground robots (from previous daily report) or if those systems are being withheld for specific breakthrough attempts.
