Situation Report

Situation Update (2002Z 26 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• MARTIAL LAW EXTENSION SIGNED (2000Z, Tsaplienko/Two Majors, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has officially signed the laws extending martial law and general mobilization for 90 days, through May 4, 2026.
• SECOND BALLISTIC THREAT WAVE (1951Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A new alert for ballistic missile use has been issued following the earlier 1923Z impacts in Dnipro.
• KHARKIV INFRASTRUCTURE FIRE (1948Z, Tsaplienko/Suspilne, HIGH): A fire is ongoing at an educational institution in Kharkiv following a confirmed "evening arrival" (strike).
• MULTI-VECTOR UAV THREAT (1941Z-1947Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs are confirmed inbound to Odesa Oblast and Sumy (specifically Krasnopillia and Sumy city).
• CIVIL UNREST IN VINNYTSIA (1959Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Footage indicates a public confrontation in Mohyliv-Podilskyi, where residents reportedly physically accosted a local energy official over prolonged blackouts.
• US STRATEGIC POSITIONING (1939Z-1958Z, RBC-UA/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): The White House labeled recent trilateral talks on Ukraine as "historic," while US Carrier Strike Groups in the Middle East are reported at high readiness.
• KREMLIN "RESTRAINT" NARRATIVE (1933Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Sources claim Putin ("Pypa") stated Russia is being "asked" to refrain from infrastructure strikes despite Ukrainian UAV strikes on RU territory.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Sector (Odesa/Black Sea): A new UAV threat has emerged (1941Z), targeting Odesa Oblast. This suggests a coordinated effort to saturate air defenses in port regions alongside the ongoing strikes in the north and east.

Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy): Kinetic pressure remains severe. Kharkiv city is managing a large-scale fire at an educational facility (1948Z). In Sumy, UAVs are maneuvering over Krasnopillia (1947Z), likely performing reconnaissance or targeting localized energy distribution hubs.

Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border): The Russian "Center" (Otvazhnye) grouping claims successful destruction of Ukrainian infantry and armored assets on the approaches to Pokrovsk and within the eastern edges of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (1958Z). While likely exaggerated for propaganda, it confirms the persistence of the RU offensive pivot toward the Dnipro administrative border.

Western Sector (Vinnytsia): A localized breakdown in civil order is noted in Mohyliv-Podilskyi (1959Z). This is a direct consequence of the Russian "City-Kill" doctrine (targeting heating/power), indicating that infrastructure degradation is beginning to translate into domestic political pressure on local administrations.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Shifts: The enemy is utilizing a "high-low" mix—using UAVs to fix air defenses in the North (Sumy) and South (Odesa), while reserving ballistic assets for high-value targets in Central Ukraine (Dnipro/Kyiv).
• Course of Action (COA): RU forces are attempting to leverage energy-related civilian frustration. The amplification of the Vinnytsia unrest suggests a concerted effort to trigger "Maidan-style" local protests against utility managers and regional administrations.
• Psychological Ops: Putin’s reported claim of being "asked" for restraint (1933Z) is likely a domestic messaging tactic intended to frame Russia as a "rational actor" while simultaneously justifying continued strikes as "retaliatory."

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Force Generation: The 90-day extension of mobilization (2000Z) ensures continuity for training pipelines and the replacement of personnel. President Zelenskyy set a strategic attrition target of 50,000 RU casualties per month to neutralize Russian replenishment capabilities (1955Z).
• Air Defense: UA Air Force remains in high-alert status across four regional commands (South, Center, East, North) as ballistic and UAV threats overlap.
• Internal Security: SBU and local police are likely monitoring the "energy protests" to distinguish between legitimate civilian frustration and Russian-instigated provocations.

Information environment / disinformation

• Exploitation of Hardship: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are heavily promoting videos of Ukrainian civilians attacking energy officials (1959Z). This is designed to degrade national unity and suggest the "rear" is collapsing.
• Platform Insecurity: TASS is amplifying Pavel Durov’s warnings about WhatsApp security (1948Z), likely an attempt to push Ukrainian personnel toward Telegram, which is more susceptible to Russian signals intelligence and metadata monitoring.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Odesa and Sumy through the night, followed by a mid-night ballistic or Kh-101 cruise missile salvo aimed at energy hubs in Central Ukraine to prevent morning grid stabilization.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Kyiv energy knot, synchronized with the ISR data gathered by the recently breached city-center drone, intended to cause a total blackout in the capital during a period of legislative transition (martial law extension).

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Confirm if the "ballistic threat" at 1951Z resulted in impacts or successful interceptions; identify the specific missile type (Iskander-M vs. KN-23).
2. [HIGH] Assess the scale of the "energy protest" in Mohyliv-Podilskyi; determine if this is an isolated incident or part of a coordinated "hybrid" unrest campaign.
3. [MEDIUM] Verify the Russian MoD claim (1958Z) regarding successful strikes in "Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" to determine if Russian ground units have penetrated the administrative border or if this refers to long-range fire.

//REPORT ENDS//