ACTIVE KAB STRIKES: ZAPORIZHZHIA (1415Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) detected targeting Zaporizhzhia region, following confirmed damage to residential infrastructure from overnight strikes.
POKROVSK ENGAGEMENT: (1401Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Reports of "methodical destruction" of Russian forces in Pokrovsk involving UAF assault units and "SKELIA" drone pilots.
EXPANDING UAV THREAT: DNIPRO/KYIV (1403Z-1412Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New UAV (Shahed/Geran) vectors identified. One unit moving toward Grebinky (Kyiv region) from the south; another approaching Dnipro from the south.
DOMESTIC SECURITY: PORT INFRASTRUCTURE (1409Z, Gen. Prosecutor, HIGH): Major corruption case uncovered involving 43M UAH intended for port pier reconstruction; suspect fled abroad.
RUSSIAN REAR LOGISTICS: (1410Z-1427Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Disruption and subsequent restoration of the "Leonardo" aviation booking system at Zhukovsky Airport, indicating potential cyber friction or technical instability in Russian civil-military transport nodes.
ECONOMIC PRESSURE: (1417Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian Hryvnia continues to weaken; Euro exchange rate has exceeded 51 UAH in commercial banks.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Sector: The "massive" ISR wave noted in the previous sitrep (1336Z) has transitioned into a kinetic phase. At least one UAV is tracking toward Grebinky (1403Z). Air defense remains active.
Pokrovsk Sector (Donetsk): High-intensity urban/suburban combat confirmed. UAF is utilizing integrated assault and drone teams (SKELIA) to contest Russian advances (1401Z). This sector remains a primary focus of Russian offensive pressure.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The sector is under sustained multi-modal bombardment. Following overnight drone/missile strikes that damaged residential facades (1424Z), Russian aviation has initiated KAB strikes (1415Z) to suppress defensive lines.
Dnipro Sector: Emerging threat from the south. UAV ingress at 1412Z suggests a coordinated effort to saturate air defenses across multiple regional hubs simultaneously.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Precision Strikes: The shift to KABs in Zaporizhzhia indicates Russia is attempting to capitalize on coordinates gathered during earlier ISR/Shahed waves. The use of KABs allows for stand-off strikes that challenge UAF's tactical air defense envelope.
Technical Adaptation: Russian media is highlighting updated 30mm naval CIWS (AK-630M-2 "Duet" variants) specifically modified for anti-drone roles (1416Z). This suggests Russia is prioritizing the defense of maritime and coastal assets against UAF sea/aerial drones.
Sustainment/Logistics: The restoration of the Leonardo booking system (1427Z) suggests Russian internal infrastructure is resilient to recent technical failures, though the initial outage indicates a point of vulnerability in their transport network.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Counter-Operations: UAF drone units (e.g., "Black Swift") continue to demonstrate high tactical proficiency in neutralizing Russian personnel in the Bucha/Northern sectors (1406Z).
Urban Defense: Integrated operations in Pokrovsk suggest a shift toward more aggressive "active defense" where drone pilots are directly supporting infantry clearing operations.
Institutional Integrity: The General Prosecutor’s action on port corruption (1409Z) is a critical component of rear-area stability, ensuring that resources for strategic infrastructure (maritime GLOCs) are not diverted.
Information environment / disinformation
Sarcastic Narratives: Russian mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, 1420Z) are using sarcastic "2-3 days" tropes regarding "Oreshnik" missile stocks to mock previous Western/Ukrainian assessments of Russian missile depletion.
Asymmetric Threat Projection: Pro-Ukrainian channels are amplifying US concerns regarding Iranian drone swarms against carrier groups (1407Z) to reinforce the global relevance and effectiveness of the "drone war" model.
Economic Anxiety: Local reports on the Euro/UAH exchange rate (1417Z) may be utilized by Russian PSYOPs to undermine domestic confidence in the Ukrainian wartime economy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk defensive positions to facilitate local ground assaults. UAVs currently in the air (Kyiv/Dnipro) will likely attempt to identify and fix AD positions for follow-on missile strikes.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated ballistic strike on Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia logistics hubs, timed with the peak of the current UAV saturation to overwhelm local command and control.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Identify the launch platforms for current KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia to facilitate counter-battery or intercept operations.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the Euro/UAH exchange rate on the procurement of volunteer-led drone components and dual-use goods.
[MEDIUM] Determine if the "Leonardo" system failure (1410Z) was a result of a targeted UAF cyber operation or internal Russian technical failure.
[LOW] Monitor the deployment of the updated 30mm Russian naval CIWS to determine if they are being relocated to the Black Sea Fleet to counter UAF maritime drone operations.
