KAB STRIKES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (0205Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Enemy tactical aviation has commenced launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
CHERYKASY UAV PENETRATION (0214Z - 0222Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Loitering munitions (UAVs) have entered Cherkasy Oblast, specifically vectoring toward Smila from the South and Cherkasy city from the Southwest.
SURGE IN TACTICAL AVIATION (0206Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Significant activity of Russian tactical aviation detected over the South-Eastern operational zone, likely Su-34/Su-35 platforms supporting KAB and missile strikes.
UAF STRIKE ON RUSSIAN REAR (0209Z - 0225Z, TASS/RBK-UA, HIGH): Confirmation of a drone attack on an oil refinery (NPP) and a second industrial enterprise in Slavyansk-on-Kuban (Krasnodar Krai, RF), resulting in fire and at least one casualty.
PSYCHOLOGICAL RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN (0211Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian channels are disseminating coordinated recruitment material disguised as appeals to Ukrainian citizens, indicating an intensified information operation (INFOOP) targeting UAF morale.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The situation has escalated from a missile/UAV probe to a heavy aviation-led bombardment. The transition to KAB launches (0205Z) indicates the enemy believes it has sufficiently suppressed or occupied local Air Defense (AD) assets with the previous high-speed missile wave (reported at 0137Z).
Central Sector (Cherkasy): A new threat axis has emerged. UAVs are bypassing eastern defenses and approaching Cherkasy and Smila from the South/Southwest (0214Z, 0222Z). This suggests a launch origin from the Southern axis (Crimea or occupied Kherson/Zaporizhzhia) intended to strike logistics hubs or energy infrastructure in Central Ukraine.
Russian Rear (Krasnodar Krai): Successful penetration of Russian airspace in the Slavyansk-on-Kuban area (0209Z) confirms UAF capability to conduct effective deep-strike operations against Russian energy logistics despite heightened Russian AD readiness.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Observations:
Layered Attack Profile: The RFA is employing a classic multi-layered strike: (1) Long-range missiles to fix AD, (2) UAVs to saturate and identify gaps, and (3) KABs for frontline/immediate rear demolition.
Aviation Surge: The high activity of tactical aviation in the Southeast (0206Z) suggests a sustained sortie rate aimed at providing close-air support or precision strikes against UAF defensive positions.
Enemy Courses of Action:
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia through dawn, combined with UAV saturation of Cherkasy and Poltava to prevent the movement of UAF reserves.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): The aviation surge in the Southeast masks the deployment of paratroopers (106th Airborne mentioned in daily report) for a localized air-assault or high-intensity breakthrough attempt in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Engagement: Active engagement of UAVs over Cherkasy and Smila. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are likely being repositioned to cover the new South/Southwest approach vectors.
Counter-Logistics: The successful strike on the Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery (0225Z) indicates a focus on degrading the enemy's fuel supply for the "Sever" or "Yug" groups.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Legislative Hardening: The Russian government's approval of criminal penalties for "denying Nazi genocide" (0222Z) is assessed as a move to further radicalize the domestic population and provide a legal veneer for prolonged conflict.
Propaganda: Hostile recruitment appeals (0211Z) are currently saturating Telegram, attempting to exploit the stress of the ongoing missile/UAV waves to encourage desertion or collaboration. Confidence: HIGH (Source: Colonelcassad/UA intel tracking).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Immediate (0-6h): Expect continued KAB impacts in the Zaporizhzhia region. UAVs currently over Cherkasy will likely target railway junctions or energy substations.
Short-term (6-12h): Potential for a secondary missile wave following BDA from the current UAV/KAB strikes. UAF should anticipate a surge in Russian ground activity in the sectors most heavily targeted by KABs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Identify the launch sites for the UAVs approaching Cherkasy from the South/Southwest to determine if new launch platforms (ground-based or maritime) are being utilized.
[HIGH] Assessment of damage at the Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery to determine the impact on fuel logistics for Russian aviation in the Southern MD.
[CRITICAL] Verification of RFA ground troop movements in the Zaporizhzhia sector following the KAB strikes; look for concentration of armored vehicles near the 0150Z "localized breakthrough" claim area.
