SOUTHERN UAV VECTOR FROM SUMY (0116Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A new loitering munition (UAV) has been detected passing Sumy city on a southerly heading. This indicates a divergent axis from the previously reported westward movement toward Chernihiv.
RF INFORMATION CONTROL TIGHTENING (0105Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian regulator Roskomnadzor reported the registration of over 110,000 "bloggers" in 2025. This signals an institutionalized effort to monitor and co-opt the digital information space, particularly the influential "Mil-blogger" community.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv): The tactical situation in Sumy Oblast is increasingly complex. At 0057Z (Previous Sitrep), a vector was identified moving west toward Novhorod-Siverskyi. As of 0116Z, a separate or diverted asset is bypassing Sumy city heading South (UA Air Force, 0116Z). This suggests the RFA is utilizing the Sumy corridor as a "distributor" hub to saturate both northern and central Ukrainian air defense (AD) zones.
Central Sector (Poltava/Dnipropetrovsk): The southern vector from Sumy (0116Z) puts Poltava and Kremenchuk at immediate risk. This aligns with the "city-kill" strategy against energy infrastructure identified in the daily report.
Kharkiv/Donbas Sector: No new kinetic data since 0102Z. The "Staritsa bulge" remains the primary ground threat, with RFA forces likely consolidating gains following the repair of fiber-optic lines in Pokrovsk to harden command and control (C2).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Observations:
UAV Saturation Tactics: The RFA is demonstrating high flexibility in its loitering munition flight paths. By splitting vectors (West toward Chernihiv and South toward Poltava/Dnipro) within a 20-minute window, they are attempting to force UA Air Defense to prioritize targets and reveal hidden battery locations.
Hybrid Operations: The TASS report (0105Z) regarding blogger registration is an indicator of "Information Preparation of the Battlefield." By forcing state registration, the RF is centralizing its domestic narrative, likely to suppress dissent ahead of a planned escalation or to ensure "mil-bloggers" adhere to Kremlin-approved messaging during the expected missile wave.
Strategic Assessment:
Missile Strike Readiness: Despite no new messages on aviation activity, the "flatlining" at Depot 59.97 (Daily Report) remains the most critical leading indicator. The current UAV activity is assessed as the "shaping phase" for a large-scale missile strike targeting the national power grid within the next 3–6 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UA Air Force is maintaining high-tempo tracking. The shift of UAVs to a southern course past Sumy will require immediate redistribution of Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) along the H07 and H12 highways to intercept assets before they reach Poltava.
C-UAS Operations: The capture of an intact Shahed (Daily Report) remains the highest priority for technical intelligence (TECHINT) to identify any new electronic counter-countermeasure (ECCM) upgrades that might explain the current saturation success.
Information environment / disinformation
Digital Surveillance: The Roskomnadzor data confirms the transition of the Russian digital space from "loosely monitored" to "state-integrated." Analysts should expect more uniform (and likely more deceptive) reporting from Russian Telegram channels in the coming days.
Psychological Operations: Continued focus on the "city-kill" energy strategy aims to degrade civilian morale. UAF communications should emphasize AD successes to counter "impending blackout" narratives.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A coordinated multi-domain strike. UAVs will continue to orbit/probe for the next 2 hours, followed by a wave of sea- and air-launched cruise missiles (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting energy sub-stations between 0300Z and 0500Z.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Concurrent with the missile strike, RFA exploits the "Staritsa bulge" with a localized armored thrust toward the Oskil river to sever UAF lateral supply lines while C2 is distracted by the strategic strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Real-time monitoring of the UAV vector south of Sumy; confirm if the target is the Kremenchuk refinery or Poltava power distribution hubs.
[URGENT] SIGINT regarding "Sever" group ground movements near the Staritsa bulge to detect jump-off signatures for an offensive.
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of the 110k registered bloggers; identify which "independent" voices have been co-opted to assess the reliability of Russian-sourced battlefield reports.
