KAB ESCALATION - ZAPORIZHZHIA (2050Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched KAB (guided glide bombs) from the Donetsk direction targeting northern Zaporizhzhia, marking a significant escalation in fire weight on this sector.
UAV VECTOR EXPANSION (2034Z-2056Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New UAV threats detected moving toward Dnipro from the south and toward Zaporizhzhia from the east, indicating a coordinated multi-axis saturation attempt.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES - DMYTRIVKA (2055Z, Tsaplienko/OVA, HIGH): Confirmed that the FPV drone strike on Dmytrivka (Mykolaiv) wounded four children; highlights a persistent threat to non-combatant infrastructure in the rear.
DEEP STRIKE OPERATIONS (2036Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): Russian AD units intercepted two fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, confirming sustained Ukrainian pressure on Russian border logistics.
INTERNAL UA INCIDENT (2049Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian MP Orest Salamakha killed in a traffic accident; investigation by the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) is ongoing.
PERSISTENT RU OFFENSIVE CLAIMS (2101Z, NgP RaZVedka, LOW): Russian sources continue to report "good news" from the Zaporizhzhia front. UNCONFIRMED but suggests localized tactical momentum.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has intensified in the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipro corridor. The Russian Federation Armed Forces (RFA) have transitioned from simple UAV probing to a combined-arms suppression effort, utilizing KABs launched from the Donetsk axis to strike northern Zaporizhzhia.
Battlefield Geometry: The "seams" between the Southern and Eastern UA commands are being targeted. The launch of KABs from Donetsk toward Zaporizhzhia indicates RFA is leveraging its control of the Donbas to project fire onto the southern flank.
Weather/Environmental: Ground conditions remain snow-covered (corroborated by 2035Z tactical footage). This limits heavy vehicle maneuverability to established roads but enhances the thermal signature of infantry for FPV operators.
Control Measures: Air Defense (AD) remains the primary constraint. RFA is attempting to saturate Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia simultaneously to force the commitment of localized AD reserves.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Observations:
Fire Integration: The RFA is now synchronizing UAV ingress with KAB strikes (2050Z). This suggests a suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) intent, using UAVs to fix AD assets while KABs target static positions or infrastructure.
Anvar Unit Activity: RU sources (2044Z) report "Anvar" units (likely specialized drone or SOF detachments) are actively striking personnel/equipment, indicating high-intensity tactical attrition operations in unspecified sectors.
Operational Tempo: The "Fighterbomber" (2054Z) "End of period" signal may indicate the conclusion of a specific sortie wave or a shift in focus to night-time drone operations.
Strategic Intent:
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued glide bomb strikes on northern Zaporizhzhia to degrade UA defensive fortifications before a potential localized ground push.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-regiment ground assault on the Zaporizhzhia axis, supported by the ongoing UAV saturation of Dnipro to prevent the movement of UA strategic reserves.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Air Defense: UA Air Force continues to provide high-fidelity early warning. The tracking of UAVs from the south (toward Dnipro) and east (toward Zaporizhzhia) demonstrates robust situational awareness despite electronic warfare (EW) environments.
Tactical Performance: UA units are successfully maintaining attrition rates in snowy conditions (2035Z), effectively utilizing multi-unit coordination to eliminate high-value RFA personnel.
Resource Requirements:
Counter-FPV: The strike in Dmytrivka (2055Z) underscores the urgent need for mobile EW platforms in civilian-populated rear areas that fall outside the primary AD umbrella.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Noise: Serbian President Vučić’s proposal (2049Z) regarding EU accession by 2027 is being amplified by RU state media (TASS) to project a "peace-seeking" narrative that includes territorial concessions.
Reflexive Control: RU mil-bloggers (Starshe Eddy, 2042Z) are aggressively framing Zelensky’s refusal of territorial compromise as "war-mongering" to demoralize UA domestic audiences and Western skeptics.
Internal Distraction: The death of MP Salamakha (2049Z) creates a domestic news cycle that may be exploited by RU disinformation to suggest internal instability or "purges" within the UA government.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-Term (Next 6-12h):
HIGH CONFIDENCE: Continued KAB and UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE: Ukrainian retaliatory drone strikes against launch sites in the Donetsk/Crimea regions.
LOW CONFIDENCE: Announcement of a significant settlement capture by RFA in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Timeline Estimates: The current UAV saturation suggests an 0200Z-0400Z window for a potential peak in missile or heavier KAB strikes as RFA attempts to exploit AD exhaustion.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine the exact launch platforms for KABs hitting northern Zaporizhzhia from Donetsk; identify if Su-34s are operating from new forward airfields.
[URGENT] Corroborate the nature of the "Anvar" unit successes claimed by RU (2044Z) to identify which UA units or equipment types are being targeted.
[HIGH] Monitor RU heavy lift activity in the Bryansk/Kursk regions to see if the intercepted UA UAVs (2036Z) successfully disrupted a specific logistics flow.
