BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (1926Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): High-alert warning issued for ballistic missile launches from the north, coinciding with previous strategic aviation activity.
ENERGY CRISIS INTENSIFIES (1912Z, RBK-UA/Svyrydenko, HIGH): Ukrainian Economy Minister Svyrydenko reports this week is among the most difficult for the energy sector since the 2022 blackouts. DTEK has issued an urgent request for assistance specifically for the Troieshchyna district of Kyiv (1906Z).
GROUND DRONE DEPLOYMENT (1906Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian "Kurier" NRTK (Unmanned Ground Vehicles) are confirmed active in the Kupyansk direction, utilized for bunker-clearing operations.
DONBAS OFFENSIVE - KOSTIANTYNIVKA (1903Z, RVvoenkor, HIGH): The Russian 103rd Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division) has initiated a coordinated assault with armor and infantry support toward Kostiantynivka.
DIPLOMATIC SETBACK - CZECHIA (1916Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Czech PM Andrej Babiš has officially terminated negotiations for the sale of L-159 aircraft to Ukraine, marking a significant divergence from previous Czech MoD statements.
CHINESE LEADERSHIP INSTABILITY REPORTS (1904Z/1930Z, Multiple, MEDIUM): Reports citing the WSJ allege General Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the CMC) is under investigation for leaking nuclear data to the US. This is being heavily amplified across both Russian and Ukrainian channels.
PERSIAN GULF ESCALATION (1911Z, Alex Parker, LOW): Claims of imminent US-Iran kinetic engagement and US carrier wing sorties are circulating; assessed as high-impact unconfirmed reports affecting the global information environment.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has shifted into a high-intensity phase of "Negotiation by Fire," with Russia synchronizing ground assaults in the Donbas with a potential strategic missile strike.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are attempting a pincer movement on Kostiantynivka from the south while maintaining pressure in the Kupyansk-Lyman sector to fix Ukrainian reserves.
Weather/Environmental: Severe sub-zero temperatures are compounding the 48-hour power outage. The grid's inability to stabilize, particularly in Kyiv's Troieshchyna district, indicates catastrophic failure of localized distribution nodes (1906Z).
Force Dispositions: Russian 150th Division is heavily committed to the Kostiantynivka axis, suggesting this is a primary effort for the "Yug" (Southern) Group of Forces (1903Z).
Technological Adaptation: The use of "Kurier" UGVs in Kupyansk (1906Z) indicates a maturation of Russian unmanned tactics, moving from FPV-only to integrated ground-based robotic assault platforms to minimize infantry attrition in bunker-clearing.
Donbas Maneuver: The 103rd Regiment's assault toward Kostiantynivka is supported by significant drone surveillance and armor, indicating a well-resourced operational push rather than a localized probe.
Air Operations: Sustained UAV activity is noted in the South (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia) and North (Sumy), likely serving as pre-strike reconnaissance or to exhaust AD interceptors before the expected ballistic wave (1910Z, 1913Z, 1918Z).
Strategic Intent:
MLCOA: A massive synchronized strike using ballistic missiles from the north and Shahed-type UAVs from the south to collapse the remaining stable nodes of the Kyiv/Central grid.
MDCOA: Leveraging reports of Chinese internal instability to push a narrative of "Western abandonment," while simultaneously escalating in the Persian Gulf to force a redistribution of US strategic assets away from Europe.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Posture & Readiness:
Strategic Resilience: President Zelenskyy continues to consolidate the "Lublin Triangle" (UA-PL-LT), focusing on the PURL and SAFE programs to establish long-term self-sufficiency in air defense interceptors (1915Z).
Resource Constraints: The Czech refusal of L-159 aircraft (1916Z) represents a blow to future tactical aviation parity, forcing continued reliance on existing airframes and FPV drone saturation.
Tactical Successes/Setbacks:
Success: Continued effective diplomatic engagement with Poland and Lithuania provides a viable pathway for domestic AD production.
Setback: The energy sector is approaching a point of systemic collapse; the appeal for help in Troieshchyna suggests that DTEK's internal repair capabilities are currently overwhelmed (1906Z, 1912Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain) (IPB Step 4)
The "Zhang Youxia" Narrative (Dempster-Shafer 0.163): The reporting on Chinese internal purges is being used by pro-Russian sources to suggest a "Sino-US" secret deal or internal Chinese collapse, intended to demoralize Ukrainian hope for long-term Russian isolation (1928Z, 1930Z).
Iranian Deterrence: Russian channels are actively amplifying Iranian threats against US forces (1922Z, 1924Z), likely to create a sense of global overextension of Western military power.
Sarcastic Framing: Ukrainian channels (e.g., Tsaplienko) are utilizing clips of Western delegates interacting with Russian officials to highlight perceived sycophancy, aiming to maintain domestic resolve against "diplomatic traps" (1930Z).
HIGH CONFIDENCE: Execution of the ballistic missile strike wave targeting Kyiv and central energy nodes.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE: Continued Russian armored pushes in the Kostiantynivka sector aimed at reaching the city outskirts before sunrise.
Timeline Estimates: The 2000Z-0000Z window is critical for AD units as the combination of ballistic threats (North) and UAVs (South/East) seeks to saturate the defensive envelope.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[URGENT] Determine the impact of the "Kurier" NRTK on UAF defensive lines in Kupyansk; identify counter-UGV requirements.
[HIGH] Verify the depth of the 103rd Regiment's penetration toward Kostiantynivka; assess if the H-20 highway is under direct fire control.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Czech political environment following Babiš's statement to see if this represents a broader shift in the "Visegrád" support for Ukraine.
[MEDIUM] Assess the validity of US naval sorties in the Persian Gulf to determine if a real "second front" is emerging that could impact logistics/intelligence flow to Ukraine.
