LOSS OF WESTERN ARTILLERY ASSET (1500Z, DPR People's Militia, MEDIUM): Video evidence indicates a Ukrainian AS-90 (British-supplied 155mm SPG) was struck and set on fire near Osykove (Donetsk region). The strike is attributed to the "Berkut" unit of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade.
UAV PERSISTENCE IN NORTH (Baseline, HIGH): Loitering munition threats remain active in the Sumy-Poltava corridor; no new course changes reported since 1456Z.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS (Baseline, HIGH): Severe icing continues to degrade thermal power plant (TPP) recovery efforts in the Donbas and Northern sectors.
Osykove Axis: The reported strike on an AS-90 (1500Z, DPR People's Militia) suggests the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade has established a successful recon-strike loop in this sub-sector. The loss of a high-mobility, long-range asset like the AS-90 degrades UAF counter-battery capabilities protecting the southern approaches to the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk line.
Logistics: Russian signal units continue hardening fiber-optic communications in Pokrovsk (Daily Report context), signaling a transition from mobile warfare to consolidated positional defense/offense.
2. Northern Sector (Sumy/Poltava/Kharkiv)
Air Domain: No new penetrations since 1500Z, but the Shahed-type UAVs detected at 1456Z remain a threat to Myrhorod airbase.
Kharkiv/Vovchansk: The tactical bulge at Staritsa remains the primary ground threat; UAF forces are maintaining defensive positions to prevent the encirclement of Vovchansk.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Tactical Activity: 65th OMBr "Ronins" continue FPV operations against Russian fortifications. No new RU mechanized movement reported in the last 60 minutes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian 238th Artillery Brigade is demonstrating effective integration of loitering munitions (likely Lancets, Belief: 0.20) for precision strikes on high-value Western equipment. This suggests a localized density of "Berkut" drone operators near Osykove.
Force Generation: Recruitment for the 106th Guards VDV (1445Z) confirms an ongoing RU effort to reconstitute elite maneuver units, likely for a spring offensive or to exploit potential breakthroughs in the Donbas.
Weaponry: The "Kurier" (ground drone) and "Mangas" (heavy hexacopter) threats noted in daily reports remain active concerns for UAF frontline trench stability.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Artillery Posture: The loss of the AS-90 near Osykove requires a reassessment of concealment and displacement protocols for western-supplied SPGs in the Donetsk sector.
Counter-UAV: Air Defense units remain focused on the Myrhorod/Sumy axis to mitigate the "city-kill" strategy targeting the power grid.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Propaganda: Pro-RU channels (DPR Militia, TASS) are aggressively amplifying the destruction of the AS-90 to undermine confidence in Western military aid and emphasize the efficacy of the Russian recon-strike complex.
Domestic UA: High-profile UA voices (e.g., Sternenko) are maintaining engagement through digital platforms (1500Z), essential for maintaining morale amidst the energy crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued loitering munition strikes on UAF artillery assets in the Donbas to achieve fire superiority before the next RU mechanized push.
Environmental Threat: Grid icing will likely trigger localized emergency shutdowns in the Donbas within the 6h window, impacting non-redundant C2.
Missile Threat: Based on the "activity flatline" at Depot 59.97, a large-scale missile wave targeting energy infrastructure is anticipated during the overnight hours (25-26 JAN).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm if the AS-90 strike near Osykove was a "total loss" or if the hull is recoverable.
[HIGH] Locate the launch sites for the loitering munitions used by the 238th Artillery Brigade to enable counter-battery or HIMARS strikes.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the ice-related grid degradation on UAF rail logistics in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka sector.
