Situation Update (1302Z 25 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (1251Z, RBK-UA/Terehov, HIGH): A Russian drone struck a shopping center in the Saltivskyi district of Kharkiv.
- ALLEGED STRIKE ON AVIATION (1241Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources claim a successful long-range strike against Ukrainian aviation assets in Kirovohrad Oblast. BDA pending.
- INCREASED ISR ACTIVITY IN KHERSON (1301Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAF confirms a reconnaissance UAV over Kherson, likely acting as a spotter for artillery or missile strikes.
- CZECH AVIATION AID REJECTION (1234Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Czech politician Andrej Babiš has definitively rejected the transfer of L-159 aircraft to Ukraine, marking a diplomatic setback for UAF modernization.
- DOMESTIC INSTABILITY IN RUSSIA (1251Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): A state of emergency has been declared in the Murmansk region following a large-scale power outage.
- ARTILLERY ACTIVITY ON DNIPRO (1234Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian "Giatsint-B" units targeted UAF positions on the right bank of the Dnipro (Kherson sector).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)
- Kharkiv (Saltivskyi): The strike on a commercial center (1251Z) indicates a continued Russian policy of "terror bombing" to degrade civilian morale in the city. Drone incursions remain active from the east (1243Z).
- Sumy/Poltava: UAVs continue to transit northern Poltava with a heading toward Myrhorod (1250Z). This follows a pattern of targeting airbase infrastructure and energy nodes identified in the previous sitrep.
2. Central Sector (Kirovohrad/Dnipro)
- Kirovohrad: The claim of a strike on UAF aviation (1241Z) is currently UNCONFIRMED by friendly sources. However, this aligns with the Russian trend of targeting airframes and launch platforms (similar to the Faivka Iskander strike).
- Dnipro: UAVs detected approaching from the south (1238Z), suggesting a multi-vector attempt to penetrate the city's air defenses following morning incursions from the east and west.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
- Kherson: High threat levels (1301Z) due to the presence of reconnaissance UAVs. This precedes or coordinates with the reported Giatsint-B artillery fire (1234Z) against UAF personnel on the right bank.
- Zaporizhzhia: Regional administration issued a high-alert warning (1236Z) as aerial threats transition through the sector.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
- Tactical Shift: Russian forces are intensifying the use of "spotter-strike" loops, particularly in the Kherson sector. The focus has expanded from static energy infrastructure to mobile/high-value tactical assets (aviation in Kirovohrad, UAV sites in Chernihiv).
- Logistics & Readiness: While the Murmansk blackout (1251Z) indicates domestic grid fragility in Russia, the "flatlined" logistics scores at major RU missile arsenals (per previous daily report) strongly suggest a large-scale missile salvo is staged and imminent within the next 24-48 hours.
- Course of Action (COA):
- MLCOA: Continued attrition of UAF air assets and FPV launch sites via Iskander and precision UAV strikes.
- MDCOA: Coordinated missile/UAV "double-tap" strikes on civilian repair sites in Kyiv and Kharkiv to maximize casualties among technical personnel.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and AD units are actively engaged across five oblasts (Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipro, Kherson, Kirovohrad).
- Force Posture: UAF continues to hold the right bank of the Dnipro despite increased Russian artillery pressure. The loss of potential L-159 air support (1234Z) necessitates a continued reliance on existing Soviet-era airframes and Western-supplied AD.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
- Diplomatic Friction: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily amplifying Orbán’s rejection of Ukrainian "pressure" (1248Z) and the Czech refusal of aircraft to portray a narrative of crumbling European support.
- Russian Internal Morale: Reports of a suicide attempt at a veteran support fund (1240Z) and the Murmansk blackout provide opportunities for UAF psychological operations to highlight Russian domestic failures.
- External Noise: Unverified reports of a "coup" in China (1239Z) are likely disinformation or exaggerated social media rumors intended to distract from the operational theater. Confidence: LOW.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The operational tempo is expected to increase overnight. The presence of reconnaissance UAVs over Kherson and Poltava suggests Russian forces are finalizing target coordinates for a night-time strike wave. UAF units should prepare for high-intensity indirect fire in the Kherson sector and potential cruise missile arrivals in central Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Verify BDA for the alleged strike in Kirovohrad; determine if UAF air assets were compromised.
- [HIGH] Identify the specific origin of the UAVs entering Dnipro from the south to map new launch corridors.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Russian internal communication for the cause of the Murmansk blackout—assess if this reflects a broader systemic failure or localized sabotage.
//REPORT ENDS//
