CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (1251Z, RBK-UA/Terehov, HIGH): A Russian drone struck a shopping center in the Saltivskyi district of Kharkiv.
ALLEGED STRIKE ON AVIATION (1241Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources claim a successful long-range strike against Ukrainian aviation assets in Kirovohrad Oblast. BDA pending.
INCREASED ISR ACTIVITY IN KHERSON (1301Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): UAF confirms a reconnaissance UAV over Kherson, likely acting as a spotter for artillery or missile strikes.
CZECH AVIATION AID REJECTION (1234Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Czech politician Andrej Babiš has definitively rejected the transfer of L-159 aircraft to Ukraine, marking a diplomatic setback for UAF modernization.
DOMESTIC INSTABILITY IN RUSSIA (1251Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): A state of emergency has been declared in the Murmansk region following a large-scale power outage.
ARTILLERY ACTIVITY ON DNIPRO (1234Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian "Giatsint-B" units targeted UAF positions on the right bank of the Dnipro (Kherson sector).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Kharkiv (Saltivskyi): The strike on a commercial center (1251Z) indicates a continued Russian policy of "terror bombing" to degrade civilian morale in the city. Drone incursions remain active from the east (1243Z).
Sumy/Poltava: UAVs continue to transit northern Poltava with a heading toward Myrhorod (1250Z). This follows a pattern of targeting airbase infrastructure and energy nodes identified in the previous sitrep.
2. Central Sector (Kirovohrad/Dnipro)
Kirovohrad: The claim of a strike on UAF aviation (1241Z) is currently UNCONFIRMED by friendly sources. However, this aligns with the Russian trend of targeting airframes and launch platforms (similar to the Faivka Iskander strike).
Dnipro: UAVs detected approaching from the south (1238Z), suggesting a multi-vector attempt to penetrate the city's air defenses following morning incursions from the east and west.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Kherson: High threat levels (1301Z) due to the presence of reconnaissance UAVs. This precedes or coordinates with the reported Giatsint-B artillery fire (1234Z) against UAF personnel on the right bank.
Zaporizhzhia: Regional administration issued a high-alert warning (1236Z) as aerial threats transition through the sector.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: Russian forces are intensifying the use of "spotter-strike" loops, particularly in the Kherson sector. The focus has expanded from static energy infrastructure to mobile/high-value tactical assets (aviation in Kirovohrad, UAV sites in Chernihiv).
Logistics & Readiness: While the Murmansk blackout (1251Z) indicates domestic grid fragility in Russia, the "flatlined" logistics scores at major RU missile arsenals (per previous daily report) strongly suggest a large-scale missile salvo is staged and imminent within the next 24-48 hours.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA: Continued attrition of UAF air assets and FPV launch sites via Iskander and precision UAV strikes.
MDCOA: Coordinated missile/UAV "double-tap" strikes on civilian repair sites in Kyiv and Kharkiv to maximize casualties among technical personnel.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and AD units are actively engaged across five oblasts (Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipro, Kherson, Kirovohrad).
Force Posture: UAF continues to hold the right bank of the Dnipro despite increased Russian artillery pressure. The loss of potential L-159 air support (1234Z) necessitates a continued reliance on existing Soviet-era airframes and Western-supplied AD.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Diplomatic Friction: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily amplifying Orbán’s rejection of Ukrainian "pressure" (1248Z) and the Czech refusal of aircraft to portray a narrative of crumbling European support.
Russian Internal Morale: Reports of a suicide attempt at a veteran support fund (1240Z) and the Murmansk blackout provide opportunities for UAF psychological operations to highlight Russian domestic failures.
External Noise: Unverified reports of a "coup" in China (1239Z) are likely disinformation or exaggerated social media rumors intended to distract from the operational theater. Confidence: LOW.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The operational tempo is expected to increase overnight. The presence of reconnaissance UAVs over Kherson and Poltava suggests Russian forces are finalizing target coordinates for a night-time strike wave. UAF units should prepare for high-intensity indirect fire in the Kherson sector and potential cruise missile arrivals in central Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verify BDA for the alleged strike in Kirovohrad; determine if UAF air assets were compromised.
[HIGH] Identify the specific origin of the UAVs entering Dnipro from the south to map new launch corridors.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian internal communication for the cause of the Murmansk blackout—assess if this reflects a broader systemic failure or localized sabotage.
