KUPYANSK URBAN CLEARANCE (1038Z/1048Z, UA Spox Tregubov, HIGH): Ukrainian Forces are in the final stages of clearing Russian remnants from Kupyansk; enemy presence is restricted to several central blocks.
DEPLOYMENT OF JET-POWERED UAVs (1044Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM): Footage indicates the deployment of "3rd Generation" jet-powered OWA-UAVs (likely "Jet Gerans") over residential areas. This represents a significant increase in transit speed, reducing UAF reaction time for intercept.
URBAN STRIKES IN KHARKIV (1044Z/1051Z, Kharkiv OVA/Mayor, HIGH): Russian UAVs have successfully impacted the Slobidskyi district and one other district within Kharkiv city. Damage assessments are ongoing.
NEW UAV VECTORS (1032Z/1039Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New drone groups are entering Ukrainian airspace from the east, specifically targeting Dnipro and Chernihiv.
REAR AVIATION STRIKE CLAIM (1035Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): Russian sources claim a successful long-range strike on Ukrainian aviation assets in Kirovohrad Oblast. (UNCONFIRMED - Possible misinformation to mask AD failure elsewhere).
SITUATIONAL LOGISTICS (1101Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Successful completion of a weekly logistical cycle for the Zaporizhzhia front, ensuring sustainment for defensive operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv):
Chernihiv: Remains under high pressure from UAVs entering from the east (1039Z). Civilian casualties (2 KIA, 1 WIA) reported in the last 24 hours (1058Z).
Kharkiv City: The sector is shifting from peripheral skirmishes to urban kinetic impacts. The strike on Slobidskyi district suggests a targeting focus on industrial or logistical nodes within the city limits.
Staritsa/Vovchansk (Baseline): Remains critical following the fall of Staritsa; UAF forces are holding secondary lines to prevent encirclement.
Donbas Sector:
Kupyansk: Significant tactical success. The "clearing" operation (1038Z) suggests the Russian attempt to hold the city has failed, transitioning to a mopping-up phase of bypassed pockets.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoe) Direction: Heavy fighting reported in the Udachne-Kotlino sector (1041Z). This indicates a Russian effort to push west of Pokrovsk toward logistical hubs.
Lyman: Kinetic activity continues; UAF forces successfully engaged RU personnel in the sector (1051Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Focus remains on sustainment. The front is relatively stable compared to the north, with the primary activity being logistical reinforcement and preparation for potential mechanized assaults (1101Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: The introduction of jet-powered UAVs ("Jet Geran") suggests Russia is attempting to bypass mobile fire groups (MFGs) that rely on auditory detection and slower-velocity engagement.
Course of Action (COA): Russia is maintaining a high-tempo "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. While diplomatic balloons (DMZ/Peacekeepers) are floated in Abu Dhabi, the kinetic focus remains on the energy grid and urban centers to force political concessions.
C2/Logistics: The Russian "Yug" group continues to rely on heavy glide bomb (FAB-3000) usage in the Donbas to offset the lack of breakthrough momentum.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Action: UAF units have demonstrated high proficiency in urban combat in Kupyansk, successfully isolating and neutralizing RU units within a complex environment.
Logistics/Readiness: Successful weekly resupply on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a robust "rear" despite the persistent UAV threat to supply lines.
CBRN Posture: No new indicators of chemical use since the 1008Z warning, but units remain on heightened alert.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers are amplifying NYT reports on peacekeepers (1036Z) to frame the conflict as nearing a "freeze" on Russian terms.
Internal Stability Projection: TASS is pushing domestic "human interest" stories (Makhachkala rescue, 1047Z) to project a sense of normalcy and state competence within the Russian Federation during the offensive.
Commemorative Mobilization: The 10th anniversary of Strelkov's "Committee of January 25" is being used to galvanize the nationalist/pro-war base (1051Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation of the northern and eastern corridors (Chernihiv, Dnipro). Expect kinetic impacts on energy infrastructure in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A synchronized missile strike leveraging the exhaustion of AD interceptors by the current drone wave, potentially targeting the Kirovohrad aviation assets if RU reconnaissance has confirmed their presence.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the reported strike in Kirovohrad Oblast to confirm if UA aviation assets were compromised.
[HIGH] Technical exploitation of any downed "Jet Geran" debris to determine engine specs and radar cross-section (RCS) for AD adjustment.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian movement in the Udachne-Kotlino sector to determine if the RU "Sever" group is redeploying assets from Kharkiv to Pokrovsk.
