AIR THREAT EXPANSION (0941Z-0955Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New OWA-UAV (Shahed/Geran) vectors detected. Units are approaching Sumy from the north and Zaporizhzhia from the south. This follows the earlier 0919Z threat to Dnipro, indicating a multi-axis coordinated drone operation.
STRATEGIC ENERGY SUPPORT (0948Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): Lithuania has committed to transferring approximately 100 generators and additional air defense (AD) support following a bilateral meeting in Vilnius. This directly addresses the critical energy shortage identified in the 0932Z report.
POLTAVA INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (0937Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Kinetic strikes confirmed on an industrial enterprise and civilian infrastructure (sports ground) in the Poltava region.
CAPTURE OF ENEMY OWA-UAV (0944Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): UA National Police recovered an intact/downed Shahed drone in the Kyiv region, providing potential technical intelligence (TECHINT) opportunities for electronic warfare (EW) countermeasure development.
EU LEGAL INITIATIVE (0940Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): EU High Representative Kaja Kallas announced €10M in funding for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian leadership.
DOMESTIC RUSSIAN STRAIN (0939Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian government moving to simplify rent reductions for citizens experiencing utility service failures, suggesting that Ukrainian deep strikes or systemic Russian maintenance issues are impacting domestic stability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northern Sector (South Slobozhansky):
Active Engagements: GS ZSU reports ongoing clashes in the vicinity of Starytsya, Vovchanski Khutory, and Fyholivka (0952Z). While previous reports indicated the fall of Starytsya, current ZSU reporting suggests the area remains a zone of active kinetic contact.
Donbas Sector:
Kupyansk/Lyman: Fighting concentrated near Pischane, Kurylivka, Drobysheve, and Zarichne (0953Z). This indicates a sustained Russian effort to push toward the Oskil River line.
Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka: High-intensity combat remains the focal point. Clashes reported across a broad front including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Udachne, and Kleban-Byk (0953Z).
Siversk: Russian state media (TASS) claims the destruction of a UA bunker and temporary deployment point in this direction (0956Z). (UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE).
Southern Sector:
Zaporizhzhia: Russian aviation conducted multiple airstrikes on Zirnytsya, Zaliznychne, and Preobrazhenka (0952Z). Ground clashes reported near Plavni and Prymorske (0953Z).
Kherson: UAF successfully repelled a Russian ground assault on the left bank/estuary area (0953Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & UAS: Russia is maintaining a high tempo of aerial operations. The detection of drones entering Sumy from the north (0941Z) suggests the use of launch sites in the Kursk or Bryansk oblasts to bypass central AD clusters.
Tactical Doctrine: Persistence in the Pokrovsk direction remains the enemy's Main Effort (ME). The use of aviation in Zaporizhzhia (0952Z) suggests a secondary effort to fix UAF reserves and prevent reinforcement of the Donbas.
Logistics: Russian claims of intercepting $5M worth of Western munitions over Belgorod (0933Z) serve as a domestic narrative tool to mask the costs of their own offensive operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
"Operation Bring Back the Light": Ministry of Energy is conducting 24/7 restoration of power and heating infrastructure (0941Z). This is a critical line of effort to maintain civil stability during the current strike wave.
Counter-UAS/EW: Recovery of an intact Shahed in Kyiv (0944Z) indicates successful soft-kill or technical malfunction, allowing for hardware exploitation.
Precision Drone Strikes: UAF drone units (e.g., "Stirlitz") continue to report high-precision hits on Russian infantry positions and equipment (0948Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Negotiation by Fire" Counter-Narrative: UA channels are actively debunking Russian claims of an "energy truce" violation, framing current RU strikes as the primary cause of any diplomatic breakdown (0953Z).
Russian Soft Power: RU officials are utilizing "Student Day" (Jan 25) to project a sense of normalcy and youth engagement in Lipetsk and other border regions (0937Z).
Blackout Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating footage of "Kyiv in blackout" (0950Z) to amplify psychological pressure on the Ukrainian population and Western backers.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued OWA-UAV incursions into Sumy, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia. Expect follow-on missile strikes on Poltava and Kharkiv as Russia seeks to exploit gaps created by the current drone wave.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A combined-arms breakthrough in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector facilitated by heavy glide-bomb (FAB) usage, threatening a wider collapse of the central Donbas defensive line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the OWA-UAVs entering Sumy from the north (0941Z) are the new "Jet Gerans" mentioned in previous reports.
[HIGH] Verify Russian claims of the bunker destruction in Siversk (0956Z); assess impact on local command and control (C2).
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Lipetsk/Belgorod rail hubs for evidence of ammunition restock following the "flatlined" activity scores at major depots.
