HIGH-SPEED AERIAL TARGETS (0835Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple high-speed targets detected over northern Chernihiv Oblast on a southern heading. This likely indicates a cruise or ballistic missile strike in progress toward central Ukraine/Kyiv.
ACTIVE UAV PENETRATION (0838Z, 0841Z, 0856Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) are entering Dnipro from the south and Novhorod-Siverskyi from the Sumy axis. A third wave is transiting northern Chernihiv toward the southwest.
VINTAGE ARMOR DEPLOYMENT (0853Z, Operativniy ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF 423rd Battalion (Scythian Griffons) confirmed the destruction of a Russian T-54 tank. The use of 1950s-era armor suggests continued Russian armored vehicle attrition and reliance on deep-storage reserves for fire support.
COMBAT INTENSITY IN POKROVSK (0835Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Significant combat operations reported in three sub-sectors of the Krasnoarmiyske (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating a sustained Russian push to exploit the winter freeze.
ZAPORIZHZHIA INTERDICTION (0900Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade claims destruction of UAF personnel and light vehicles (quads/cars) in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS (0847Z, TASS, HIGH): Temperatures in the Moscow region and surrounding operational areas have dropped to -30.7°C. This extreme cold will degrade battery life for UAVs, impact diesel fuel viscosity, and increase the risk of cold-weather injuries for personnel on both sides.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northern Sector:
Chernihiv/Sumy: Multiple air corridors are active. High-speed targets (0835Z) and OWA-UAVs (0856Z) are utilizing the northern border to bypass concentrated air defenses.
Kharkiv City: The 16th Army Corps (UA) reports a stable but "operational" situation (0833Z), suggesting ongoing positional battles and ISR activity.
Donbas Sector (Pokrovsk/Lyman/Kupiansk):
Pokrovsk Axis: Russian paratroopers are actively engaging in three localized areas (0835Z). This remains the most volatile ground sector.
Lyman Axis: Sustained logistical support to Russian paratroopers (0850Z) indicates an effort to maintain offensive tempo despite the extreme cold.
Kupiansk: Continues to suffer from infrastructure degradation reported in the previous sitrep.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Russian Spetsnaz are focusing on interdicting UAF mobile groups (0900Z), likely targeting rotation and supply runs.
Kherson: Russian MoD is conducting public relations/awards ceremonies for the BARS-33 unit (0848Z), suggesting a temporary consolidation or static defense posture in the immediate vicinity.
Vremivka: Russian 36th Army is prioritizing counter-UAS operations, claiming successful downs of UAF hexacopters (0841Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Vector Air Assault: Russia is currently conducting a coordinated strike using a mix of high-speed missiles and slow-moving OWA-UAVs to saturate UAF Air Defense (PVO) from the North, South, and East.
Logistical Interdiction: Tactical reports from Zaporizhzhia and Vremivka show a clear Russian intent to use FPVs and Spetsnaz to "starve" forward UAF positions of mobility (targeting cars and quads).
Armor Quality Degradation: The appearance of a T-54 (0853Z) in active combat confirms that the Russian "Yug" or "Vostok" groups are backfilling losses with obsolete platforms, likely used as static or mobile pillboxes rather than maneuver elements.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Strike Capability: The 423rd OBBS continues to demonstrate high proficiency in "optical-fiber" or high-precision drone strikes against heavy armor.
Infrastructure Resilience: Kyiv energy workers, supported by BBC documentation (0838Z), are performing "hot-swaps" and repairs on the grid under -30°C conditions to prevent a systemic collapse during the ongoing missile/UAV waves.
Fundraising/Sustainment: Civil society (Sternenko, 0834Z) remains the primary source for tactical edge tools (UAVs/knives/supplies) to bridge the gap in official procurement.
Information environment / disinformation
EU/Corruption Narrative: Russian state media (TASS/Berliner Zeitung, 0837Z) is amplifying Western critiques of EU-Ukraine oversight to undermine financial aid packages.
French Civil Unrest (UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE): Pro-Russian sources (Rybar, 0900Z) are promoting claims of a "Gendarme revolt" in France. This is likely a distraction or hybrid influence operation aimed at discouraging European domestic support for Ukraine.
Belgorod Retaliation: Russian channels are heavily emphasizing civilian casualties (including a child) in Belgorod (0833Z, 0835Z, 0853Z) to justify the ongoing "negotiation by fire" and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Impact of high-speed targets in central/northern Ukraine. Continued OWA-UAV pressure on Dnipro and Chernihiv to force PVO expenditure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis coinciding with a grid failure caused by the current missile wave, leading to a loss of C2 in the sector during sub-zero temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the nature of "high-speed targets" over Chernihiv (Kinzhal, Iskander, or Kh-22). Determine if they have reached their terminal phase or were intercepted.
[HIGH] Assess the operational readiness of the Russian 16th Army Corps in Kharkiv following their recent situation report.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of -30°C weather on UAF Starlink terminals and drone battery performance in the Pokrovsk sector.
