ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES (0733Z, 0739Z, Colonelcassad/Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Confirmed nighttime kinetic impact in Kramatorsk resulting in localized grid failure. Russian sources also claim a successful strike on an energy facility in Vinnytsia Oblast, expanding the geographic scope of the current "negotiation by fire" campaign.
MASSIVE ORDNANCE EXPENDITURE (0746Z, Zelenskiy/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelenskiy reports that Russia has launched >1700 OWA-UAVs, >1380 KABs (glide bombs), and 69 missiles in the past 7 days. This confirms a saturation strategy intended to deplete Ukrainian interceptor stocks and degrade critical infrastructure.
NEGOTIATION LEAKS (0754Z, Tsaplienko/Politico, MEDIUM): Emerging reports suggest Russia is proposing a "power-sharing" agreement for the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP), offering to split electricity output between Ukraine and Russia as part of the Abu Dhabi trilateral framework.
ACTIVE AIR THREATS (0751Z-0758Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Ongoing OWA-UAV (Shahed) activity reported over Dnipropetrovsk (heading West) and Sumy (entering from North). Tactical aviation is actively launching KABs toward the Donetsk sector.
FRONT-LINE KINETICS (0737Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Confirmed FPV drone strikes by the 18th Slavic Brigade (NGU) against Russian trench positions in the Chasiv Yar sector, indicating sustained high-intensity close combat.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donbas Sector (Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk):
Kramatorsk: Overnight strikes have successfully targeted the power grid (0733Z). This is likely intended to disrupt UAF logistics and repair hubs supporting the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis.
Chasiv Yar: UAF 18th Slavic Brigade remains active with FPV-led defensive operations (0737Z). Russian pressure remains consistent but relies heavily on infantry positions vulnerable to precision drone interdiction.
Tactical Aviation: High frequency of KAB launches (0757Z) indicates Russia is attempting to soften secondary defensive lines ahead of potential mechanized pushes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Air alerts have cleared (0734Z), but the ZNPP "electricity split" proposal (0754Z) suggests Russia is transitioning from military threats to energy blackmail in this sector.
Kherson: Active missile danger (0752Z) reported in the Kherson district, likely targeting UAF command nodes or cross-river logistics.
Northern/Rear Sectors:
Vinnytsia: Russian claims of an "energy object" strike (0739Z) suggest OWA-UAVs or cruise missiles are successfully penetrating deep-rear air defenses.
Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk: Ongoing OWA-UAV transit (0754Z, 0758Z) indicates a multi-vector wave intended to fix PVO assets in the rear and prevent their redeployment to the front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: Russia is moving toward a "total saturation" model (1,700+ drones/week). This volume is designed to overwhelm the "kill chain" and force Ukraine to choose between protecting front-line units or rear-area energy nodes.
Diplomatic Weaponization: The proposal to split ZNPP power is a sophisticated hybrid maneuver. It aims to create a "functional freeze" of the front by linking energy security to territorial concessions.
Capabilities: Russian tactical aviation maintains a high sortie rate in the East, using KABs to compensate for high attrition in mechanized units.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: High-level diplomatic efforts in Vilnius (meeting with Nauseda, 0755Z) are focused exclusively on securing immediate PVO (Air Defense) replenishment to counter the 1,700+ drone/week threat.
Tactical Defense: Continued reliance on FPV units (e.g., "Donbas" Battalion) to hold static positions in the Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar direction. UAF is effectively using "asymmetric attrition" to stall Russian advances despite the lack of heavy ordnance.
Information environment / disinformation
Aid Fatigue Messaging: Russian channels (0737Z) are amplifying Italian parliamentary dissent to project a narrative of crumbling EU support.
Negotiation Framing: The release of Abu Dhabi talking points (Politico/0747Z) regarding security guarantees and ZNPP is being used to prepare the domestic and international public for a potential ceasefire framework.
Demographic Distraction: Russian state media (TASS/0747Z) continues to push "normalcy" narratives (e.g., Moscow naming trends) to mask the impact of high casualties and economic mobilization.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued OWA-UAV harassment of Central and Western Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk/Vinnytsia) to sustain pressure on the grid. KAB strikes will likely intensify in the Pokrovsk/Kramatorsk sector following the overnight blackout.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated missile/UAV strike on the Kramatorsk rail/logistics hub while power is out, aimed at decapitating the defense of Chasiv Yar during a period of communication/infrastructure vulnerability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the damage to the Vinnytsia energy facility. Determine if it impacts the main North-South transmission lines.
[HIGH] Confirm the specific Russian units involved in the Kramatorsk strike. Monitor for any movement of the Russian "Yug" group's mechanized reserves toward the blackout zone.
[MEDIUM] Investigate the "ZNPP split" proposal's origin. Determine if this is a formal RU MoD position or a trial balloon for the Abu Dhabi delegates.
