KAB STRIKES ON SUMY (0039Z, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KAB) against targets in the Sumy region.
FPV STRIKES ON UAF LOGISTICS (0035Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reported FPV drone strikes by the Russian 68th Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) targeting UAF Humvees and transport vehicles in Druzhkivka, Varvarovka, and Novoandriivka.
WESTERN ALIGNMENT FRICTION (0035Z, РБК-Україна/Politico, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a perceived policy divergence where the US prioritizes its own security guarantees for Ukraine over European frameworks.
DOMESTIC RUSSIAN SOCIAL SPENDING (0046Z/0059Z, TASS, HIGH): Moscow is signaling increased social payouts (maternity capital and adoption benefits) to stabilize the domestic front during the winter offensive.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Vector (Chernihiv/Sumy):
Kinetic Activity: The situation has escalated from a single loitering munition ingress (0031Z) to active tactical aviation strikes. The use of KABs in Sumy (0039Z) suggests the enemy is targeting Ukrainian border screening forces or forward staging areas. This likely serves as a diversion or suppression of regional AD to facilitate the larger UAV/Missile package expected from the Olenya/Engels staging areas.
Donbas Sector (Bakhmut/Kramatorsk Axis):
Battlefield Geometry: Strikes in Druzhkivka are significant; it serves as a critical rear-echelon logistics hub for the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk defense line. Targeted FPV strikes on Humvees (0035Z) indicate Russian ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) is active deep behind the immediate Line of Contact (LOC).
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian 68th ORB is demonstrating high-precision interdiction of UAF mobility assets. This confirms the "FPV clearing" trend identified in earlier reports.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Aviation: VKS tactical aviation is now fully integrated into the night's kinetic activity. KAB launches are typically used to degrade fixed fortifications or concentrations of personnel where precision is required.
ISR/FPV Integration: The video evidence from Druzhkivka (0035Z) shows a high level of coordination between reconnaissance drones and FPV strike teams, suggesting a robust C2 (Command and Control) link at the tactical level.
2. Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued tactical aviation pressure on Sumy and Chernihiv to fix UAF reserves while the strategic missile carriers (Tu-95MS) prepare for the 0200Z–0600Z strike window.
MDCOA: A large-scale mechanized push toward Druzhkivka following the disruption of UAF logistics and the suspected national-level missile strike.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF mobility in the Donbas (Druzhkivka/Novoandriivka) is currently under high threat from FPV interdiction. Tactical units must implement strict camouflage and electronic warfare (EW) protocols for all vehicle movements.
Air Defense: Sumy and Chernihiv regional AD are actively engaged. There is a requirement for increased MFG (Mobile Fire Group) deployment to counter the low-altitude KAB/UAV threat.
Information environment / disinformation
Western Cohesion: The Politico report (0035Z) highlighting US-EU guarantee friction is being amplified to undermine Ukrainian confidence in long-term Western support. This complements earlier TASS reports of "secret US-Russia contacts" to create a narrative of Ukrainian isolation.
Russian Domestic Stability: The emphasis on social benefits (0046Z) is a deliberate effort by the Kremlin to insulate the civilian population from the economic costs of the "Negotiation by Fire" strategy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL: We are entering the primary window for the predicted mass-launch event (0200Z). Tactical aviation activity in Sumy is likely the precursor.
Interdiction: Expect increased Russian FPV/Lancet activity against UAF artillery and logistics in the Kramatorsk sector to prevent reinforcement of the "bulge" at Staritsa.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] SIGINT/ELINT confirmation of Tu-95MS or Black Sea Fleet Kalibr-carrier sorties.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of UAF logistics in Druzhkivka to determine the impact on sustainability for the Kramatorsk defense.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific VKS units operating over Sumy to assess the scale of the tactical aviation effort (e.g., number of airframes involved).
