ENERGY CRISIS: MASSIVE KYIV OUTAGES (1956Z, RBK-Ukraine/Shmyhal, HIGH): Ukrainian PM Shmyhal confirms 800,000 subscribers in Kyiv are without power due to emergency shutdowns. This marks a significant escalation in the domestic energy crisis following recent strikes.
RECIPROCAL STRIKE: BELGOROD HIMARS ATTACK (1943Z-2001Z, TASS/WarGonzo, HIGH): Russian sources and local officials confirm the "most massive" strike on Belgorod to date. HIMARS is the suspected platform. Damage to energy infrastructure is confirmed; casualties are officially reported as zero (UNCONFIRMED).
BALLISTIC THREAT: BRYANSK DEPLOYMENT (1955Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): AFU detects a threat of ballistic missile launches from the Bryansk Oblast (RU). This follows missile sirens being activated in the Unerchsky District, RU (1953Z).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT: KAB LAUNCHES (1937Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
LOGISTICAL INTELLIGENCE: "OFF-THE-CONVEYOR" MUNITIONS (1941Z, RBK-Ukraine/Vlasiuk, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy claims Russian forces are using missiles produced recently without stockpiling, indicating a "just-in-time" supply chain for precision munitions.
INTERNAL SECURITY: ANTI-CORRUPTION ACTION (1950Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Ukrainian prosecutors have moved against a Zakarpattia official for failing to declare 8.3m UAH in assets, signaling ongoing internal stability/rule-of-law operations during the kinetic peak.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Vector (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Bryansk):
Kyiv: The grid is under extreme duress. 800,000 subscribers without power represents a critical failure point for urban sustainment and C2 heating requirements.
Bryansk/Unerchsky (RU): High kinetic activity. Missile sirens in Unerchsky (1953Z) suggest UAF is targeting Russian launch sites or logistics nodes in response to the ballistic threat identified by AFU Air Force (1955Z).
Donbas & Eastern Vector:
Dnipropetrovsk: Now under active KAB threat. This indicates a broadening of the Russian "glide bomb" envelope toward strategic logistics hubs in the rear of the Donbas front.
Zaporizhzhia: Subject to both KAB strikes (1937Z) and continued Russian volunteer-led drone logistics (1959Z). The "Two Majors" foundation is confirmed to be delivering new drone batches to this front.
Airspace: Shahed-type UAVs are maintaining a western heading from Cherkasy/Kirovohrad toward Vinnytsia (1934Z). This suggests an attempt to bypass central AD clusters to strike western transit nodes or energy substations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Ballistic Posture: The concentration of ballistic assets in Bryansk (1955Z) suggests a planned high-velocity strike on Kyiv or northern infrastructure to exploit the current grid instability.
Sustainment: The use of "off-the-conveyor" missiles (1941Z) suggests Russia is vulnerable to production disruptions, though current output remains sufficient for sustained high-intensity waves.
Tactical Aviation: Increased reliance on KABs in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk indicates an effort to degrade UAF defensive positions without risking close-quarters CAS.
2. Courses of Action:
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued "Negotiation by Fire." Russia will execute the ballistic launches from Bryansk within the next 2-4 hours to paralyze Kyiv’s remaining grid before the overnight temperature drop.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis saturation strike involving the Vinnytsia-bound Shaheds, Bryansk ballistics, and tactical KABs to create a total "blackout" across the Dnieper axis, forcing an immediate humanitarian crisis.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Value Strikes: The HIMARS strike on Belgorod energy infrastructure (1946Z) serves as a direct asymmetric response to the Kyiv outages, intended to force the Kremlin to divert resources to domestic civil defense.
Air Defense: AFU Air Force remains active in tracking and warning of low-altitude UAV threats and high-altitude ballistic transitions, despite potential sensor degradation from extreme cold.
Domestic Stability: Successful prosecution of corruption in Zakarpattia (1950Z) mitigates Russian narratives regarding Ukrainian institutional failure during the Abu Dhabi talks.
Information environment / disinformation
"Darkness" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Rybar/Colonelcassad) are amplifying the cumulative impact of energy strikes (1939Z) to maximize psychological pressure on the Ukrainian civilian population.
Casus Belli: Russian state media (TASS) emphasizing the "massiveness" of the Belgorod strike and the use of Western-supplied HIMARS is likely intended to justify the upcoming ballistic wave.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KINETIC: High probability of a ballistic missile event targeting Kyiv or the northern corridor between 2100Z and 0100Z.
ENERGY: Kyiv’s grid situation is critical. Further emergency shutdowns are expected as the "Level 1" ice hazard (noted in previous sitrep) increases the physical load on damaged lines.
TACTICAL: Expect continued KAB activity in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk sectors as Russian forces attempt to soften the front ahead of mechanized pushes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm launch status of ballistic units in Bryansk. Identify specific TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) locations.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of damage to Belgorod's energy sector. If the TES is fully offline, monitor for Russian "Tit-for-Tat" targeting of specific Ukrainian power plants (e.g., Kaniv or Kyiv HPP).
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the Shahed wave toward Vinnytsia. Determine if the target is the local energy hub or western rail logistics.
