INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV HEATING CRISIS (1558Z, Klitschko/RBC-UA, HIGH): Approximately 3,300 high-rise buildings in Kyiv remain without heating following overnight strikes. This confirms the operational impact of the "reduced flight time" missile tactics noted in the previous report.
KINETIC: POKROVSK ATTACK REPELLED (1553Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): UAF units successfully disrupted a Russian ground assault near Pokrovsk, maintaining the integrity of the industrial zone defensive lines.
AERIAL THREAT: CHERNIHIV PENETRATION (1550Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): A new UAV has been detected over Berezna, Chernihiv Oblast, flying a southern heading toward the interior.
DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI DEPARTURE (1547Z, TASS, MEDIUM): The Russian delegation has reportedly departed the UAE. The lack of a breakthrough communique aligns with the "negotiation by fire" strategy.
DOMESTIC (RU): VPN RESTRICTIONS TIGHTENED (1546Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Roskomnadzor (RKN) has reportedly implemented new restrictions on VPNs using Russian IP addresses, significantly degrading the ability of Russian citizens to bypass state-approved "white lists."
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector (Donbas):
Defensive Success: Following the 147th Artillery Brigade's intervention, further ground assaults have been blunted. UAF continues to hold key industrial terrain.
Enemy Tactics: The Russian "Yug" Group is utilizing tank crews for direct fire against camouflaged dugouts and observation posts near Kostiantynivka (1541Z, MoD Russia). This indicates a shift to high-intensity localized tank-infantry cooperation to clear UAF forward positions.
Kyiv/Northern Sector:
Kyiv: The humanitarian situation is deteriorating due to the heating failure in 3,300 buildings (1601Z). With sub-zero temperatures, the grid's inability to restore thermal supply increases the risk of domestic pipe bursts and secondary infrastructure damage.
Chernihiv: Russian forces claim to have struck military and infrastructure targets in the region (1556Z, Deasntnik). The southern-heading UAV over Berezna (1550Z) suggests a multi-vector drone wave is developing to pressure the northern AD corridor.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Information Operations: Russian state media (TASS) and MFA (Zakharova) are aggressively pushing narratives of UAF strikes on a clinic in Kakhovka (1536Z) and an ambulance in Energodar (1539Z).
Assessment: These remain UNCONFIRMED and are likely intended to provide a moral counterweight to the Kyiv heating crisis during international diplomatic windows.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Capabilities and Intentions:
Energy Warfare: The focus has shifted from total grid destruction to "thermal attrition." By targeting heating-integrated substations, Russia is attempting to force a civilian exodus or political pressure on the UAF high command.
Internal Control: The RKN's move to block VPNs from white-listed IPs (1546Z) suggests the Kremlin is preparing the domestic information space for a "total war" footing or mitigating the fallout of potential future mobilization waves.
2. Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued exploitation of the Chernihiv/Kyiv axis using low-cost UAVs (Shahed/Molniya) to drain AD magazines before the arrival of the next "short flight time" missile package.
MDCOA: Mechanized breakthrough in the Pokrovsk sector supported by massed FAB-3000 strikes (as noted in the daily report) to seize the logistics hub before ground conditions thaw.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C-UAV Success: The use of Katana interceptors to down "Molniya" drones is a high-value tactical win, preserving expensive surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) for more critical cruise/ballistic missile threats.
Defensive Posture: UAF ground units in the East remain in a "flexible defense" posture, trading space for time in the north (Staritsa bulge) while holding firm in industrial urban centers like Pokrovsk.
Information environment / disinformation
War Crimes Framing: Maria Zakharova (MFA) has characterized the alleged Energodar strikes as "barbaric" (1546Z). This high-level attribution confirms a coordinated propaganda push to influence the Abu Dhabi post-negotiation narrative.
Domestic Morale: The Ukrainian Ministry of Youth and Sports is actively deploying mental health PSAs (1535Z) to manage the psychological impact of the prolonged heating and energy crisis.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
KYIV: Expect emergency repair efforts to be hampered if the UAV wave currently over Chernihiv (1550Z) reaches the capital, triggering fresh AD alerts.
NORTHERN BORDER: Increased kinetic activity in Chernihiv/Sumy sectors as Russia attempts to widen the "Staritsa bulge" tactical advantage.
DIPLOMATIC: Following the Russian departure from Abu Dhabi, a kinetic escalation is highly likely within the 24-48h window as Russia punctuates the end of talks with force.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Technical data on the "Katana" interceptors—specifically their range and altitude limits—to assess the feasibility of scaling this C-UAV success.
[HIGH] Assessment of repair timelines for the 3,300 buildings in Kyiv; determine if the damage is at the substation level or within the district heating distribution pipes.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the status of the "Braveheart" AS-90 near Rayske (ref. daily report) to verify UAF artillery attrition rates in the Donbas.
