DIPLOMATIC: ABU DHABI TRILATERAL CONCLUDED (1401Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed the conclusion of two-day constructive trilateral meetings (UA-US-RF) in the UAE. This marks the first high-level format of its kind in an extended period.
AIR OPERATIONS: BALLISTIC THREAT FROM KURSK (1342Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A major air alert was triggered across Kyiv and Northern Ukraine following confirmed ballistic missile launches from the Kursk region (RF).
TACTICAL: HEAVY ARMOR ASSAULT IN NOVOPAVLIVKA (1343Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Russian forces launched a daytime mechanized assault in the Novopavlivka direction, incorporating additional heavy armored vehicles. UAF drone units are actively engaged in interdiction.
REAR STRIKE: OLEKSANDRIYA AIRFIELD TARGETED (1338Z, Kotsnews, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim a successful strike on a Ukrainian helicopter park and National Guard facility at the Alexandria airfield (Kirovohrad region).
DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION: UA-HUNGARY RELATIONS DETERIORATE (1353Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Foreign Minister Sybiha issued a harsh condemnation of Hungarian PM Orbán, comparing his rhetoric to WWII-era collaboration, following Orbán’s claims of Ukrainian interference in Hungarian elections (1340Z, Operatsiya Z).
CIVILIAN DEFENSE: KYIV PREPAREDNESS WARNING (1355Z, Colonelcassad/Ignatiev, MEDIUM): The head of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association advised Kyiv residents to stockpile food and water for a two-week period, citing expected grid instability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kyiv):
Kyiv: Under active air raid alert as of 1337Z. Shahed-type UAVs detected in the Borodyanka district (1353Z) moving west.
Chernihiv/Sumy: High-speed targets (missiles) detected crossing from Northern Chernihiv toward Sumy (1344Z). UAV activity reported near Kulykivka (1350Z).
Ballistic Corridor: The Kursk-Kyiv axis remains the primary vector for current missile sorties (1342Z).
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Novopavlivka: Heavy combat reported. Russian forces have committed reserve armor to sustain the momentum of daytime assaults (1343Z).
Donetsk (Kostiantynivka): Russian 78th "Sever-Akhmat" Regiment is active; drone footage suggests high-intensity reconnaissance-strike loops near the settlement (1333Z).
Lyman/Kupyansk: (Baseline context) Heavy attrition continues; UAF "Lazari" units previously reported 14 armored kills.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Confirmed military engagements occurring along the primary line of contact (1337Z). Ukrainian regional authorities emphasized the importance of international aid for front-line community resilience (1356Z).
Logistics & Rear (Central Ukraine):
Kirovohrad: Potential strike on rotary-wing assets in Oleksandriya suggests a Russian effort to degrade Ukrainian tactical mobility and CASEVAC capabilities (1338Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: Russia is executing a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. Despite the "constructive" tone in Abu Dhabi (1338Z, 1401Z), the Kremlin has intensified ballistic strikes from Kursk and armored assaults in Novopavlivka to maximize leverage.
Tactical Shift: The use of heavy armor in daytime assaults (1343Z) suggests a shift away from "meat assaults" toward more conventional mechanized pressure in specific breakthrough sectors.
Information Warfare: Russian channels are amplifying bizarre narratives (e.g., US "Discombobulator" weapons in Venezuela) to distract from the high-intensity ballistic campaign and muddy the information environment (1356Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF is maintaining a high state of air defense readiness in the capital. Drone operators in the Novopavlivka and Donetsk sectors remain the primary counter-armor capability (1340Z, 1343Z).
Strategic Communication: The UA government is concurrently managing a diplomatic crisis with Hungary while celebrating the Day of External Intelligence (1338Z), likely intended to bolster internal morale.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Diplomatic Polarization: The verbal escalation between Kyiv and Budapest (Sybiha vs. Orbán) signals a breakdown in EU-consensus regarding Ukrainian support, which Russia will likely exploit in the next round of Abu Dhabi talks.
Energy Anxiety: Reports suggesting a 14-day supply requirement for Kyiv (1355Z) may trigger panic buying and civil stress if not addressed by official municipal communications.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued ballistic launches from Kursk targeting Kyiv and central energy hubs to "bookend" the conclusion of the Abu Dhabi session.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sustained multi-vector strike (Ballistic + Shahed) designed to overwhelm Kyiv's air defense while UAF reserves are tied down by heavy mechanized assaults in Novopavlivka.
Weather: Improving conditions (warming on Jan 25) may facilitate increased drone and mechanized activity on both sides (1336Z).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the status of the Alexandria airfield; assess the extent of damage to the helicopter fleet and National Guard assets.
[HIGH] Identify the specific ballistic missile variants being launched from Kursk (Iskander-M vs. North Korean KN-23) to assess precision capabilities.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Hungarian border activity or policy shifts following the Sybiha-Orbán exchange for potential disruptions to logistics/transit.
