DIPLOMATIC: TRILATERAL TALKS CONCLUDE (1252Z-1259Z, RBC-Ukraine/TASS/Axios, HIGH): Trilateral negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi have concluded for the current session. Reports characterize the atmosphere as "positive" and "constructive," with the next round scheduled for next week.
ENERGY GRID: MASSIVE BLACKOUTS (1243Z, TASS/Kuleba, HIGH): Over 1.2 million consumers in Kyiv and Chernihiv are currently without power following sustained infrastructure strikes. This represents a significant expansion of the crisis previously localized to the Troieshchyna district.
AIR OPERATIONS: SHAHED INCURSION (1255Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): New Shahed-type UAVs detected in northern Kyiv region, transiting on a western heading.
TACTICAL SUCCESS: RECON DRONE ATTRITION (1251Z, Sternenko/10th OGSHB, HIGH): Operators of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade (OGSHB) successfully downed 10 Russian reconnaissance UAVs ("wings") in a single operational window.
DOMESTIC RF: INFORMATION CONTROL (1247Z-1257Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza/TASS, MEDIUM): The Russian State Duma is moving to tighten financial oversight of "foreign agents" and signaling potential new restrictions on Telegram and WhatsApp for non-compliance with local laws.
CASUALTY CLAIM: HOLA PRYSTAN AMBULANCE STRIKE (1243Z-1259Z, Saldo/Mash/Dva Mayora, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian-appointed officials claim a UAF drone killed a three-person medical team in Hola Prystan (Kherson). No independent or UAF verification is available.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Kyiv & Chernihiv Sector:
The energy situation has deteriorated from localized utility failures to a regional blackout affecting 1.2M people (TASS, 1243Z).
Active air defense measures are likely engaged as Shahed UAVs transit the northern corridor toward western Ukraine (UA Air Force, 1255Z).
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia):
Hola Prystan: Russian sources are heavily amplifying a narrative regarding a "targeted" UAF strike on a civilian ambulance (Mash, 1243Z). This follows the pattern identified in the previous sitrep of neutralizing reports of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure with counter-accusations of war crimes.
Unmanned Systems: The "Ghost of Khortytsia" unit is maintaining high-intensity FPV operations in wooded, snowy terrain, indicating no significant operational pause despite weather conditions (Priyd Khortytsia, 1251Z).
Logistics & Rear (RF):
Russian frontline logistics are reportedly suffering due to "broken terrain" and high-risk delivery routes, suggesting UAF interdiction or degraded infrastructure is impacting the tactical "last mile" of supply (Colonelcassad, 1234Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Hybrid Strategy: Russia is employing a "Good Cop/Bad Cop" approach. While its delegation in Abu Dhabi projects a "constructive" image for the international community (1258Z), the military continues to execute high-pressure strikes on the Ukrainian civilian energy grid (1243Z).
ISR Degradation: The loss of 10 reconnaissance drones in one sector (1251Z) indicates a significant blow to local Russian situational awareness, likely preceding or responding to a UAF tactical movement.
Internal Stability: Legislative moves against messaging apps and "foreign agents" suggest the Kremlin is preparing the domestic information space for potential unpopular concessions or a long-term mobilization pivot by neutralizing dissent (1257Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-ISR: UAF air defense and electronic warfare (EW) units are successfully prioritizing the destruction of Russian reconnaissance assets, which is critical for blinding Russian tube and rocket artillery.
Strategic Resilience: Despite 1.2M citizens losing power, C2 appears stable, though the humanitarian burden on regional administrations (Chernihiv, Kyiv) is reaching critical thresholds.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Negotiation Framing: Russian state media (TASS) is careful to report that "results exist" but will only be announced by "authorized persons in capitals" (1257Z). This maintains ambiguity while putting the onus on Kyiv and Washington to define the "success" of the talks.
Medical Strike Narrative: The intensity of reporting on the alleged ambulance strike in Hola Prystan (multiple sources within 15 minutes) suggests a pre-planned information operation to dominate the news cycle and provide "moral justification" for the ongoing blackout campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed transits toward Western Ukraine to force the dispersion of UAF air defense assets away from the central energy hubs.
MDCOA: A second wave of cruise or ballistic missiles targeting the remaining transmission nodes in Chernihiv to fully isolate the northern grid from the national system.
Diplomatic Pivot: Expect "leaks" regarding the "Anchorage Formula" to emerge in the next 12 hours as delegates return from Abu Dhabi to brief their respective leaderships.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Independent verification of the Hola Prystan incident. Determine if the "medical vehicle" was being used for troop transport or if the strike occurred at all.
[HIGH] Identify the specific energy nodes targeted that led to the 1.2M blackout; assess if these were new targets or re-strikes on repair work.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of Russian delegates; any immediate departure from hotel hubs toward military command centers (e.g., Rostov-on-Don) would indicate a failure of the "constructive" talks.
