OFFICIAL CLAIM: CAPTURE OF STARITSA (0905Z, RU MoD/TASS, MEDIUM-HIGH): The Russian Ministry of Defense officially claims the "liberation" of Staritsa (Kharkiv region) by "Northern" group forces. While Ukrainian confirmation is pending, the transition from mil-blogger rumors to official MoD reporting indicates high probability of a tactical shift in this sector.
DIPLOMATIC STALEMATE: ABU DHABI DAY 2 (0910Z-0931Z, Reuters/TASS/RBK-UA, HIGH): Negotiations have entered a second day with "no signs of compromise." Reports indicate significant pressure from both the US and Russia on Kyiv regarding territorial concessions in the Donbas.
MASSIVE PRECISION STRIKE CONFIRMED (0907Z-0923Z, RU MoD/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian forces confirmed a large-scale overnight strike using high-precision ground and air-launched munitions. Key targets included UAV production facilities and energy infrastructure supporting the Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex (VPK).
INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE: KYIV (0929Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): The Kyiv Metro "Green Line" has resumed normal operations, signaling effective local damage control following recent strikes.
SECTOR TARGETING: KIROVOHRAD INTERDICTION (0917Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Further reports of "Geran" loitering munition strikes in Kirovohrad. This corroborates earlier unconfirmed reports of aviation assets (helicopters) being targeted in the region.
TRAINING SURGE: POKROVSK AXIS (0908Z, RU MoD, HIGH): Assault detachments of the 68th Guards Army Corps (Group "Tsentr") are reportedly undergoing specific combat training for the "Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating a sustained or upcoming offensive push in this sector.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is characterized by "Negotiation by Fire." Russia is leveraging kinetic strikes on energy and production facilities to maximize leverage during the ongoing Abu Dhabi talks. The Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) in Kharkiv has likely shifted south with the reported fall of Staritsa.
Weather: Unchanged; typical winter conditions; ground stability supports tracked vehicle movement but hampers UAS recovery in high-wind/precipitation windows.
Key Terrain: Staritsa (Kharkiv) provides a tactical foothold for Russian forces to threaten the flanks of Vovchansk.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Capabilities/Intentions: Russian forces have shifted targeting priorities toward UAV production plants. This is a deliberate attempt to degrade UA's asymmetrical advantage in low-cost precision strikes.
Course of Action (COA): RU is maintaining high-tempo pressure across the entire front (from Kharkiv to Huliaipole) to prevent UA from shifting reserves to the Pokrovsk or Staritsa axes.
Logistics: The reported training of the 68th Guards Army Corps for the Pokrovsk direction suggests a fresh rotation or reinforcement wave is imminent in the Central Donbas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Posture: UAF General Staff reports defensive clashes in multiple sectors (Lyman, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk). High-intensity defensive operations are concentrated in the Pokrovsk direction, specifically near Rodynske and Udachne.
Tactical Successes: Continued resilience of the Kyiv energy/transport grid despite "massive" strikes.
Constraints: Increasing diplomatic pressure from Western partners (US) to reach a "compromise" is likely impacting long-term strategic planning and morale within the high command.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
"Negotiation by Fire": Russian state media and mil-bloggers (Fighterbomber) are explicitly linking the lack of diplomatic compromise to the "insufficient" severity of the energy crisis, signaling intent for more destructive strikes.
Morale Operations: Russian channels are amplifying reports of US pressure on Kyiv to sign a peace deal, aiming to create a narrative of "Western betrayal" (0912Z, Operativno ZSU).
Internal Russian Distraction: Reported health crises in Kemerovo and Komi (TASS) are being tracked but are assessed as having zero impact on military operations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russia will conduct another wave of "Geran" and missile strikes within the next 12-24 hours to coincide with the conclusion of the Abu Dhabi Day 2 sessions. Priority will remain energy nodes and identified UAV assembly sites.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A concentrated Russian breakthrough south of Staritsa, exploiting the newly claimed terrain to bypass Vovchansk's primary defenses and cut the T-2104 supply route.
Timeline: The next 6 hours are critical for the Abu Dhabi talks; if no breakthrough is announced by 1800Z, expect an immediate escalation in long-range strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky): RU MoD claims control of Staritsa. UA General Staff reports yesterday's clashes were concentrated near Prylipka and Vovchanski Khutory.
Pokrovsk: Highest concentration of combat activity. Clashes reported across 15+ settlements, including Rodynske and Pokrovsk proper.
Kostiantynivka: Sustained pressure following the FAB-3000 strike; clashes near Kleban-Byk and Pleschiyivka.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro: RU aviation conducting strikes on Bratske and the Huliaipole/Orikhiv sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of UAF withdrawal from Staritsa. Need satellite or drone imagery of RU presence in the settlement center.
[HIGH] Assessment of the "massive" overnight strike's impact on UAV production. Identify specific facilities hit to determine the extent of industrial degradation.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the RU 68th Guards Army Corps from training areas to the Pokrovsk FLOT.
